I did call it with a chance to become chip leader with 10 runners left.
My thought process was Tavira"s all in represented AA, KK or AQ, all of which would delight me.
Doobs" also calling (going all in) is a nightmare really ... my thought process here was he had a Flush draw at least ... very unlikely to have JJ or QQ as argued ... 88 I would just have to suffer.
Effectively assuming a flush draw only - I am just better than 50% for a massive pot.
The danger in folding is that I end up having a race for a pot with no added value.
The plus side is that I am definately alive!
So I call.
Tavira turns over :as: ac - beautiful
Doobs turn over : ah th - nightmare!
I still have 38.5% chance to win against all his draws : AA has 13.2% : Doobs 48.2%
Turn is
So I go favourite ...
River is
Sigh.
Doobs is the new chip leader - though failed to qualify.
My main thought here is what people think about such positions - what is best to do?
ah th is a nighmare holding but even assuming this hand.
I have a 38.5% chance of 50,809 chips E(x) = 19,562
I fold I have 16,405 for sure.
Only 2 seats.
I had a similar position last night when in 12th in the Betfair $20k g"tee ... sitting in 12th (in the money) with an overpair to what looked liked an obvious flush draw.
10th-12th pays $240
1st = $6,000
2nd= $4,000
3rd= $2,380
4th = $1,600
5th = $1,300
6th = $1,000
7th = $,700
8th = $ 520
9th = $340
I have the option to make a tiny re-raise (they bet 12,600 - the pot) which will be automatically called so assuming I am correct I bet 17,500 chips to win a total pot of c48,000.
But of course I stand the chance of dying!
In both hands there is the small danger of sets being already made.
48,000 would have put me third of 12 with 3 short stacks - let"s assume they go.
Then a tough last 9 to fight through but starting 3rd - every chance to finish 3rd with some +/- distibution.
If I fold I am safe but in 10th place - with the likelihood of needing a race some time soon to progress.
I put the chips in with my tc ts
Flop is
:
:
The Villian
Flips qd td
Pretty much as expected - so I am 53.5% to win ... 46.5% to die!
What do people think of such situations?
When you make the hero call and hold you are in epic shape.
Fold - and I will have a medium to high probability of a medium sized prize.
The more conservative players did take the smaller prizes on the final table - as is usually the case.
None of the prizes are life changing - but creates bank roll to enter other events looking for the elusive big pay day.
I look forward to your thoughts.
Louis