sigh ok some maths
i will count all stacks for the 3 players pre as 9000 ...
pot - 4800
i"ll give foggy a range of - AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKh, KcKs, KhKs, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, AcQc, AhQh, AsQs, QcJc, QhJh, QsJs, Td9d, AcQh, AcQs, AhQc, AhQs, AsQc, AsQh, QcJh, QcJs, QhJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh
zeee germans range after seeing kinboshi pot and foggy reraise imo is more 2 pairs or sets - QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s,QcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJh, QcJs, QhJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh
as i dont know if we get 1 or 2 callers then i"ll just work out for 1 caller being the german AKdd versus potentially with a sets or 2 pair which kinboshi is 39% to win against..
pot 4800
kinboshi 8600 left
german 6200 left
using my maths i work it out as 19600 chips at risk which we stand to win 39% of the time if called,obv we lose 8600 if we dont win.
our required fold equity is thus 956/[956+4800] 16.6%
if we think the german calls 2 pair or better and this is 100% of his range then shoving is not good here.I give zeee aggressive german a strong range because he has just seen pot bet then reraise on a juicy co-ordinated flop and zeee german has 3bet quite small,after seeing pot bet then reraise i tend to favour that he would flat his drawing/1 pair hands at best.
http://dailyvariance.com/fe-calculator.php - have a play with it..
things get interesting if foggy is the caller as the fold equity for him is 6.5% and without much info to go by and giving him a broad range to reraise with and thinking he might fold over pairs etc then yes shoving is good if we were to think zeee german will fold.But all in all with boshis AKdd blockers on this texture flop,am i the only one who thinks this favours the villains ranges being strong? i must be getting nitty
can anyone put foggy or zeee german on a range because they have played them before?