Biggish early hand at Euro's - thoughts please?

[WYoung83]

what did you do and what happened in the end Dan. Come on ive been waiting for 3 days now.

[noble1]

lol even i can ignore the maths if i think my reads are correct, but Flush draw [1 out for royal] versus this action which pretty much suggest 2 pair and sets for at least one villain is just to spewy imo to shove 172bb"s in,, no FE, you need both to call to break even lol cannot anyone logically justify a shove being right here with sound reasoning..
Kinbosh i"ll be very interested to what move you made and why,if you shoved what ranges did you put them on?

ps - why do some automatically put the german on air with just the info very aggressive,has there been some showdowns which i"m not aware of that automatically helps puts his range here on 100% air,is there no chance that he has a hand or foggy [whoever he is ] for that matter..

more info to go by boshi please , i get fed up with the default answer to everything being shove :"(  

std thread -
i got a flush draw,i"m oop with 2 others in a pre-flop raised pot,the flop is co-ordinated and my lead has been 2bet and 3betted what do i and why? btw i have no reads except one villain is aggressive i dont know what with but he is very aggressive.the other villain raised in ep and his name is misty..

std answer to all tricky spots -
obv they are bluffing here, without no doubt you have 100% fold equity, its a shove all in moment  - std why did u bother posting this?

[Marty719]

Noble, do u think call>fold>raise?

[deanp27]

i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??

[Marty719]

i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??

I agree w/ this as well seeing as Foggy will be folding AA KK.  Does German call 100% of the time w/ QJ seeing as we have Kinboshis range at QQ JJ 77 QJ AKdd (do we even know Boshi is gng to 4-bet shove QJ in this spot).

[AMRN]

i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??

I disagree and am with Noble on this - Dan either needs both of them to call a shove to give him a decent payoff if he hits his draw, or both of them to fold. If one calls with a set and the other folds, the pot odds do not justify the move. In reality the only hands that are realistically likely to call here are top and middle set - overpairs, two pair, and bottom set are probably likely to fold a lot of the time.    The action suggests that at least one of them has QQ or JJ so is likely to call the shove - the shove only becomes the correct move if they both have QQ and JJ, and both call..... chances of that?

[MintTrav]

How long have you been coming on this forum, noble? You should know by now that the agreed answer to every situation on here is to shove. Okay, what is the next question?

[Marty719]

i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??

I disagree and am with Noble on this - Dan either needs both of them to call a shove to give him a decent payoff if he hits his draw, or both of them to fold. If one calls with a set and the other folds, the pot odds do not justify the move. In reality the only hands that are realistically likely to call here are top and middle set - overpairs, two pair, and bottom set are probably likely to fold a lot of the time.    The action suggests that at least one of them has QQ or JJ so is likely to call the shove - the shove only becomes the correct move if they both have QQ and JJ, and both call..... chances of that?

So u fold to the 2800?  This is a great thread - soo many different opinions!!  

[AMRN]

i think Dan has plenty of fold equity, how can he have no FE??

I disagree and am with Noble on this - Dan either needs both of them to call a shove to give him a decent payoff if he hits his draw, or both of them to fold. If one calls with a set and the other folds, the pot odds do not justify the move. In reality the only hands that are realistically likely to call here are top and middle set - overpairs, two pair, and bottom set are probably likely to fold a lot of the time.    The action suggests that at least one of them has QQ or JJ so is likely to call the shove - the shove only becomes the correct move if they both have QQ and JJ, and both call..... chances of that?

So u fold to the 2800?  This is a great thread - soo many different opinions!!  

to be honest, in the heat of the moment, with draws to straight, flush, and royal, no I don"t think I can fold.... and as I hate calling, I"m probably shoving. However, sitting here with a calculator, and hours/days to think about it, I think a call or a fold is better than a shove.

[deanp27]

i think this is closer than my initial reaction.

however in this spot i feel that shoving>folding>>>>>>>>>>calling. UTG guy should fold a tonne of hands, including aces. It is hard to determine whether german flats QQ/JJ pre but given "aggressive" reads is he not likely to 3bet these pre? This leaves 77/QJ that he is likely to raise/call all in with. Also put AQ in his hands, what does he do here - Dan"s lead/4bet jam is super strong (btw i can"t see anyone folding bottom set in this spot).

i think calling the 2800 would be a huge mistake and put you in a terrible spot.

I still think you have enough FE to make this work.

[Marty719]

Yea I think shove>fold>call 100%

It would suck flatting the 2800 on the flop and then just check folding the turn!!  Gives opponents a chance to get away from some hands if scare cards come on turn as well.

Not sure how German perceived Foggy which I guess wud affect his 3-bet range pre.

If German is folding QJ then thr is def a decent amount of f/e.

[deanp27]

i don"t think the German would fold QJ, i know i wouldn"t

[Marty719]

i don"t think the German would fold QJ, i know i wouldn"t

Well what range do u think Kinboshi is shoving?  

[JamieCarra]

It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.

Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.

Technically we still have 12 outs, we just need to avoid the board pairing, as it stands there are 12 cards which on the turn will give us the stone cold nuts.

the only info i have to go by is that zeee german is aggressive and the blinds are i"m guessing 25/50 with boshi having around 9000 chips behind after leading out for 400 into a 400 pot,he sees rr to 1200 [pot 2000] and a 3bet to 2800 [pot 4800] if all stacks were of similar size pre if boshi shoves 9000 more and only gets 1 caller which will be most likely a set then he stands to gain 13800 chips which is -ev.... at best if we 4bet shove then we have to hope foggy and zeee german both have sets or a set and 2 pair for both to call for our shove to be just about break even ev wise , and all this when boshi is about 180bb"s deep!!! is there a chance we are against an over pair or two [AA,KK] maybe but with boshi holding blockers for both and a blocker for AQ and the way the action went post,does zeee german 3bet worse than 2 pair? if foggy has an over pair or TPTK then its a pretty easy fold given the action plus also how big the effective stacks are if boshi 4bet shoves.
There are very few scenarios in our favour so pretty much imo 4bet shoving is marginal at best so its not an option for me but this would give me a headache because i prefer to call [cant find a fold]but if foggy 4bets or goes all in then its a call [priced myself in by only calling,but only just against a set , hopefully but slim, maybe up against worse] even if zeee german does not continue,if foggy just calls and the turn bricks i can fold to any heavy action,if a diamond comes then i"ll bet for value,if the magical Td comes then all options are open i see more value in calling,and if foggy only calls and the turn goes tits up, we still have around 132bb"s to soldier on with.

anyone want to work out maths wise if shoving flop is +cEV?

The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ.  Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.  Pretty sure he"ll be folding overpairs to a shove here

i don"t think the German would fold QJ, i know i wouldn"t

I"m pretty sure I"d be folding QJ in the spot against anyone but an absolute nutcase!

[AMRN]

It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.

Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.

Technically we still have 12 outs, we just need to avoid the board pairing, as it stands there are 12 cards which on the turn will give us the stone cold nuts.

No - If he has QQ or JJ, we can hit four , and seven diamonds (7 no good)...  so only 11 outs before the turn, reducing to 10 outs after the turn