Biggish early hand at Euro's - thoughts please?

[JamieCarra]

It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.

Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.

Technically we still have 12 outs, we just need to avoid the board pairing, as it stands there are 12 cards which on the turn will give us the stone cold nuts.

No - If he has QQ or JJ, we can hit four , and seven diamonds (7 no good)...  so only 11 outs before the turn, reducing to 10 outs after the turn

Ok fair enough, could probably do with thinking before typing, but I"m still more than happy to get the loot in here.

Shove > Fold > Call

[noble1]

bloody fold equity does my head in , there is another way which is easier to pick up which i"ll put in a later post.
Looking at boshis scenario just from a pure is it +or- ev if we shove but think we have no FE i"ll put up some numbers and try to explain it as best i can so that for those that dont know but are interested then they can take something from the thread..

EV - to determine if u have positive expectation your pot/implied odds need to be better than your calculated equity.

if you were to pokerstove boshis AKdd versus a set he would have 33% equity,he has 8600 behind so if he shoves and is only called by the german boshi will win 10600 33% of the time but 67% of the time he will lose 9000.

as i put villains on equal stacks of 9000 on the flop i do not count boshis 400 lead as in the pot,we have foggys 1200   plus preflop 400 equals 1600 - we are playing for the germans stack of 9000 - shove 9000 to win 10600

WIN 33% of 10600 = 3498
LOSE 67% of 9000 = 6030

WIN - LOSE = EV
3498-6030 = EV -2532  [not good we want positive expectation]

ok now i"ll do the same for a scenario if the german calls with 2 pair which rounded on stove makes boshi 45%
WIN 45% of 10600 = 4770
LOSE 55% of 9000 = 4950

WIN - LOSE = EV
4770-4950 = EV -180 [close but no cigar to breaking even]

anyhows i hope this helps someone when they want to review there hands to see if it was + or - ev , helpful in mtts as well as cash..
the numbers are pretty close but not 100% , u can figure in ties but mostly if ties are below 3% then there is not much significance on the numbers imho plus i rounded up and down...Also i use the equity % not the win %"s

if you wanted to work Fold Equity,things start getting a little trickier but not hard to learn,i"ll do an  example later but
roughly it is -  we multiply the EV if he calls number by the chance that we think he does call % and get a number....
then using the what we think fold % number, we use that number in the same methods above to get a FE....
we would then add FE and EVcall to get a EVtotal with FE built in...

[noble1]

The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ.  Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.

i once used to use board cards for removal but got stung by sets lmao , so now i only use my cards pre-flop for card removal when trying to judge villain ranges, i do still factor in some removal for ranges post flop though if the board is paired but i try to do it with my reads on the villains and there tendencies.

[kinboshi]

What more information do people need here to help with their decision?

For those saying shove (well, everyone really), what does the German 3-bet with on this flop with?  I actually put him quite a wide range, with the worst I expect him to show being two pair - unless he"s betting with complete air.  The bluff is part of his range, but I only expect to see it a small percentage of the time.

Foggy"s a decent player, and he knows me, so knows I"m not leading out OOP with bugger all on a flop with such a texture.  So for him to raise me, he has TPTK or better (imo). 

I think I posted the stack sizes earlier.  The German has us both covered, and I am shorter than the other two - but obviously if I win an all-in coup then either would be pretty short.

Oh and I have a Royal Flush draw.

[Marty719]

What more information do people need here to help with their decision?

how does the German perceive u and Foggy?

Oh and I have a Royal Flush draw.

Sweet................ship

if you wanted to work Fold Equity,things start getting a little trickier but not hard to learn,i"ll do an  example later but
roughly it is -  we multiply the EV if he calls number by the chance that we think he does call % and get a number....
then using the what we think fold % number, we use that number in the same methods above to get a FE....
we would then add FE and EVcall to get a EVtotal with FE built in...

EV= [EV(fold)]* x + [EV(call)*(1-x)  

Edit:  JamieCarra assures me EV= [EV(fold)]*( x ) +{ [EV(call & win)(y) + [EV(call &  lose)*(1-y)}*(1-x)

[deanp27]

as well as all the obvious hands (sets QJ AQ) the German could also have a hand like   or   td - can"t see him having complete air here unless he is a nutter

[JamieCarra]

The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ.  Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.

i once used to use board cards for removal but got stung by sets lmao , so now i only use my cards pre-flop for card removal when trying to judge villain ranges, i do still factor in some removal for ranges post flop though if the board is paired but i try to do it with my reads on the villains and there tendencies.

[ ] Makes sense

[noble1]

The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ.  Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.

i once used to use board cards for removal but got stung by sets lmao , so now i only use my cards pre-flop for card removal when trying to judge villain ranges, i do still factor in some removal for ranges post flop though if the board is paired but i try to do it with my reads on the villains and there tendencies.

[ ] Makes sense

[ ] jamieCarra considers all the angles

[JamieCarra]

The fact that we have blockers to AA abd KK is pretty irrelevent whenever the board also has blockers to QQ and JJ.  Without knowing this guy personally I would have thought that he was more likely to flat dan"s open with QQ and JJ to try to induce a squeeze from the aggro german but would probably reraise with his overpairs which would make AA andKK more likely than QQ and JJ.

i once used to use board cards for removal but got stung by sets lmao , so now i only use my cards pre-flop for card removal when trying to judge villain ranges, i do still factor in some removal for ranges post flop though if the board is paired but i try to do it with my reads on the villains and there tendencies.

[ ] Makes sense

[ ] jamieCarra considers all the angles

I was going to go for

[ ] Makes sense

again but I"ll try this one instead....



[ ] Great comeback

[deanp27]

What more information do people need here to help with their decision?

For those saying shove (well, everyone really), what does the German 3-bet with on this flop with?  I actually put him quite a wide range, with the worst I expect him to show being two pair - unless he"s betting with complete air.  The bluff is part of his range, but I only expect to see it a small percentage of the time.

Foggy"s a decent player, and he knows me, so knows I"m not leading out OOP with bugger all on a flop with such a texture.  So for him to raise me, he has TPTK or better (imo). 

I think I posted the stack sizes earlier.  The German has us both covered, and I am shorter than the other two - but obviously if I win an all-in coup then either would be pretty short.

Oh and I have a Royal Flush draw.

just curious - you called preflop as UTG range is fairly strong. What was your plan when you lead the flop, was it to induce a raise?

[noble1]

out of interest heres an old link i had bookmarked away , old thread but there are a few good nuggets to get the grey matter going - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=6280447&an=0&page=0#Post6280447

page 4 reply by TeamDonkey explaination for calling is spot on...

[Marty719]

^^^^Just had a quick glance at the actual hand - havent read thru the thread yet, but v diff situation.  Draw isn"t to the nuts.  Has stats on villain to aid w/ assigning ranges. 

Edit:  Also have 15outs twice against naked one pair if his read is correct so.............ul like this.............w8 for it.............I shove  

[noble1]

just going to put this out there for discussion - our equity share of the pot pre and post is 33% obv,if you consider boshis position [bb oop] if we put zeeee german on 2 pair and sets and foggy on over pairs , sets and TPTK then our actual equity is 38 to 39% so does this make it right to lead and call rr .. Would any1 consider checking flop?

[Marty719]

If I check the flop, I do so to c/r most of the time. 

The more I think about it, the more I really like the lead in this spot. 

I also agree w/ Dean that it is poss for German to have some draws in his range which is clearly a good spot for us. 

I am never b/c"n 33% of my stack and then just c/f"n blank turns.

Do we think villain stacks off w/ his draws after the 3-bet?

[kinboshi]