is this call profitable in the long term?

[shozboy1]

Hi guys, is this call of a shove profitable? I"m in the BB with JJ. The player in question raises all in from mid position with stats of 21/12 over 50 or so hands. We are down to 20 of a 90 man SNG. Top 12 get paid. I"ve not got any "out of the ordinary" reads on this chap...


PokerStars Game #37101024311: Tournament #224690377, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (175/350) - 2009/12/23 22:18:23 WET [2009/12/23 17:18:23 ET]
Table "224690377 4" 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: shozboy (6930 in chips)
Seat 2: elnilo (13255 in chips)
Seat 3: Sparx2287 (21763 in chips)
Seat 4: saf10 (4150 in chips)
Seat 6: Hyllen (9330 in chips)
Seat 7: diky3stiks (4511 in chips)
Seat 9: boumpies (8844 in chips)
shozboy: posts the ante 45
elnilo: posts the ante 45
Sparx2287: posts the ante 45
saf10: posts the ante 45
Hyllen: posts the ante 45
diky3stiks: posts the ante 45
boumpies: posts the ante 45
boumpies: posts small blind 175
shozboy: posts big blind 350
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to shozboy [ ]
elnilo: folds
Sparx2287: calls 350
saf10: raises 3755 to 4105 and is all-in
Hyllen: folds
diky3stiks: folds
boumpies: folds
shozboy: raises 2780 to 6885 and is all-in
billycan is connected
HamariMalua is connected
Sparx2287: folds
Uncalled bet (2780) returned to shozboy
*** FLOP *** [ Td ]
*** TURN *** [ Td ] []
*** RIVER *** [ Td ] [Ts]
*** SHOW DOWN ***

[deanp27]

yeah i"d be snapping this off

[Eck]

yeah i"d be snapping this off

[noble1]

if u think villains range is 12% - 55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo   
then its cEV+ to call - 66+,ATs+,AJo+

if villains range is slightly nittier say - 88+,ATs+,AJo+,KQs   
then its cEV+ to call - 99+,AQs+,AQo+


Pot-$5,295+3755 to call=9050  3755/9050=0.414 is your pot equity,basically as long as your hand equity[using stove] against villains range is greater than the pot equity, it is a pot odds call [+cEV]   
So just use pokerstove and see how individual hands are equity wise versus whatever shove range u have villain on......

OR - 5295 pot 3755 to call  5295/3755=1.41    1/2.41=0.4149 [41.5% pot equity]

[Eck]

So what range do you bother to put someone on with 12bb"s?

[noble1]

small sample 50 hands , the stats suggest nothing out of the ordinary , if villain is random then i"d lean to putting him on 99+,AKo+,AQs+...if a reg with 1/2 an idea about JCM charts/shove cEV+ putting everyone on nitty call ranges then i"d put villains range here - 22+,ATs+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AJo+,KQo..what we dont know is how does he view Sparx2287 and his tendencies,if he is expecting a call then i"d put saf10"s range very narrow to QQ+ AQs+ AQo+ which would be folding time for Jacks [vv marginal call]..
So eck my answer

what range do you bother to put someone on with 12bb"s?

it depends , u know that ..

[deanp27]

there is also the possibility he doesn"t open jam them aces and kings

[shozboy1]

Sparx was generally abit fishy for the time I knew him at the table. Open limped quite a few pots so I wasn"t concerned about him calling myself

[shozboy1]

Sorry, the other thing which makes me query the hand is the approaching bubble. I wonder whether it would still be +EV given this fact?

[noble1]

u cant really do a ICM shoz this far out [7 to the bubble] , really all u can go by is if its cEV + or - ..
Like deanp says AA KK may not possibly be in his jam range , but its a perfect stack size to jam them as a normal raise with his stack size looks far stronger imo...The more i think about it [buy in low] i think i"d favour him on a pretty narrow range here so i"d be 50/50 tbh on folding or calling , either would be fine..

Although a lot of us look at these situations as + or - cEV it doesnt always mean it is mEV+ if its cEV+ , if your position at the time was itm then i can see a argument also for folding...

[JamieCarra]

It"s a fistpump mousebreaking instacall, and it"s not even close!  F**k the bubble, you need to be getting top 3 to make it worthwhile anyway.

The only reason to consider folding here would be if if the EP limper had aggro nitty stats which would make the limp suspicious.

[shozboy1]

I always felt strongly it was a call, just wanted the reassurance - as the guy flipped over KK

[noble1]

ul shoz , tricky spot but as long as you are willing to think outside of the box,analyse and review your end game you met even start to make good instinctive folds..