Author Topic: Working out percentages for outs pre flop?  (Read 2542 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

LongshanksED

  • Gold Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 561
Working out percentages for outs pre flop?
« on: January 07, 2010, 14:05:56 PM »
I know when calculating the outs post flop to river you multiply your number of outs (eg 8 for an open ended straight draw) by 4 (eg 8x4 = 32 so 32%) and on the turn you multiply it by 2 (8x2 = 16)

but what is the percentage for preflop. I"m surmising it multiplied by 8

Example from last night. 5p/10p pub game. I have £20. I"m in big blind and hold AJ suited. 8 handed table. UTG min raises and everyone calls. Now I have a hand i"d like to get heads up but doubt I"ll take it down here.   so I raise to £2.50 total. UTG insta shoves for £9 total and it"s folded back to me. I didn"t want to see that. With a fair bit of knowledge on villian as I"ve known him for years ( my little brother) I put him on JJ QQ KK or AQ AK. He just call with less pairs to set mine or fold worse Ax

so thinking if he has AQ/AK i have 3 Js for outs so that would be 3x8 = 24% or he has JJ QQ KK and i have potentially 3 Aces for outs (same 24%) so while the pot is now approx £12 and it"s costing me £7 so I"m not getting the odds but I tank to think if the call is anyway good. I do fold after I ask if he"ll show if I fold and he does. He had JJ.

But was my calculating percentages correct with the 8x or was I being generous?      

noble1

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2518
Re: Working out percentages for outs pre flop?
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2010, 14:55:37 PM »

Marty719

  • Staker Licensed Player
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1162
    • Facebook
Re: Working out percentages for outs pre flop?
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2010, 15:10:01 PM »

http://www.pokerstove.com/


This^^^^^

You shud have a good basic knowledge of pre-flop situational odds in your head. 
Also, dnt make a habit of 3-betting ppl tht min-raise utg :) its usually not a good sign!
[ ] ECOAP 2012 Team Event Gold...

noble1

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2518
Re: Working out percentages for outs pre flop?
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2010, 11:07:56 AM »

I know when calculating the outs post flop to river you multiply your number of outs (eg 8 for an open ended straight draw) by 4 (eg 8x4 = 32 so 32%) and on the turn you multiply it by 2 (8x2 = 16)

but what is the percentage for preflop. I"m surmising it multiplied by 8

Example from last night. 5p/10p pub game. I have £20. I"m in big blind and hold AJ suited. 8 handed table. UTG min raises and everyone calls. Now I have a hand i"d like to get heads up but doubt I"ll take it down here.   so I raise to £2.50 total. UTG insta shoves for £9 total and it"s folded back to me. I didn"t want to see that. With a fair bit of knowledge on villian as I"ve known him for years ( my little brother) I put him on JJ QQ KK or AQ AK. He just call with less pairs to set mine or fold worse Ax

so thinking if he has AQ/AK i have 3 Js for outs so that would be 3x8 = 24% or he has JJ QQ KK and i have potentially 3 Aces for outs (same 24%) so while the pot is now approx £12 and it"s costing me £7 so I"m not getting the odds but I tank to think if the call is anyway good. I do fold after I ask if he"ll show if I fold and he does. He had JJ.

But was my calculating percentages correct with the 8x or was I being generous?      


Right where do we start :) ok you have somehow mixed up the 4 and 2 rule for roughly calculating outs into a percentage of hitting on the turn or river.
Sadly the maths for working out flop combinations is not so straight forward but happily a lot of these calculations have been done and can be easily found out with the aid of google :)
Although your 8x rule would be ok [ish] for a ballpark figure for the above scenario or for say your 2 overs versus an underpair it comes apart for when you are against two connected lower cards.If you use pokerstove it is simple to run various situations you find yourself in daily and to remember the equitys.
For anyone reading this if you are interested here is a good site for tinkering with various ideas that you may have.
http://www.holdemheatmap.com/index.php?page=post-flop-analyzer
[you need silver light installed,easy enough to install if you do not have it]