Bomb out....how would others approach?

[Sugarnes]

Been mulling over last nights bomb out of a tournament.  Its not an unusual situation to find yourself in so interested in people"s thoughts/approaches.

Late on in a $162 tourney on stars (above my usual bankroll - entered sat with a view to bank T$s but it took longer than expected & I ended up in it!).

500ish start - 73 left - 63 get paid. Av. Stack >20k. Blinds 500/1000/(120?)

Just quitening down from middling stages where people were very willing to get there money in for a likely race.  1 raise taking a lot of pots and re-raises taking most uncontested.  The villian of the piece was playing reasonably solid had got lucky AJ >> AQ and then won a race with 99 calling an all-in a few rounds back but had been quiet of late.  I"d nicked a couple more pots pre-flop perhaps but certainly wasn"t giving off a loose image.  BB had been up & down quite a bit but had shut down recently I"m leaning on him trying to sit out the bubble unless he picks up a premium hand.  SB nothing major to note other than a bit of willingnesss to call a raise from the blinds more than most were at this point (raise or fold largely the standard).

We"re 7/8 handed:

UTG+1   19k   Villian
Button   16k    Moi
SB   35k   
BB   11k

UTG+1 raises 2.3k - folds to me.
I pick up AcQc and re-raise to 5.1k.  Blinds fold.
Villian goes into the tank for a while then shoves.
I do similar then call, small chance he is on a bluff or A10, AJ but most likely is we"re racing.

He turns over 8c8s.  Flop comes down 857 no clubs and I"m virtually drawing dead.

I lost a race and you gotta win them to take one of these down there you go - but not feeling great about my play - could/should I have played it better?  

Some of my musing:
Weird to say but I can fold straight up - with bubble approaching raising an unopened pot with rags is often a better spot.  Just felt too passive and in some ways would have felt like accepting crawling over the bubble and giving up on going deep.
I can call initial raise in position - slightly worried about people behind re-popping, conscious that I cant call a c-bet on a lot of flops and even if I hit there"s often little more coinage to be had.
I can shove rather than re-raise - people may have played this totally different in many ways but I cant find good reason not to do this - plenty of arguments against shoving 17bb nearing bubble but ultimately if I"m calling a shove why not get it in there first?  
And of course I can fold to the shove.

Interested in people"s views.......

[Marty719]

Def a tricky spot!!  What do u think villains raising range is from utg+1 at this stage?  If he is raising AJ, A10, KQ, type hands then I think 3-bet shoving is prob the best option.  If his range is substancially tighter than tht, then you mite be able to find a fold.  Flatting and playing a pot in position seems tempting, but never really wana b flatting with 16x.
The only prob w/ the way u played it is if villain flats, then ur commited to shoving nearly all flops!

How long was left until the next level?

I prob 3-bet shove a lot in this spot w/ good f/e.

[AMRN]

difficult one, and I think your action can vary dependant on your desired outcome.  

Given that you didn"t intend to play this, and had planned to take the T$, I suspect that a min cash would probably suit your initial intentions, and folding here to limp over the bubble would be ok.

If you aren"t bothered about the small return, then AQs is a hand that you definitely don"t want to be folding here. I think though that given your read about the villain being reasonably solid, you have to give him respect for some semblance of a hand having raised UTG, and there probably isn"t much in his range that AQ is beating - so you either accept that you are raising, or that you are dominated.   Personally I don"t want to be shipping 17xBB when I have somewhere between 20% and 50% chance of winning. However, he may of course fold the better hand to a 17xBB shove...... so, don"t like your raise as you give him the opportunity to shove - would much prefer to put the pressure on him with the shove myself, especially since you are prepared to put your stack in anyway.

With all that indecision, I would probably flat call here and play the flop in position, and would be prepared to fold to a c-bet if I missed completely (as was the case in your example).

[noble1]

with only 10 left to the money i"d prefer to fold this and get ITM then race..
As played although AQs looks pretty , against [with your read] a solid player with a stack less than 20bb raising utg1 i think your lucky to meet the bottom of his range here.If he is a competent player then no matter how you play it [3bet or shove] i dont think you have any fold equity at all.
The 3bet near min raise is a bad idea because if he flats then shoves the flop [70% of which you miss] puts you in a quandry unless as stated u intend to call , plus we could argue the raise with your stack size sort of signaled to him your hand strength [would most players play AA KK etc like this?]
If your image to him was super nit then the only way imo u would achieve any sort of FE would be to shove but the way u describe villain then this is slim..

[Marty719]

Thus, therefore u have 1 shove, 1 call and one fold easy game

Edit:  Does he call a shove for his entire stack w/ 88?  I def think we have some f/e.

[noble1]

Thus, therefore u have 1 shove, 1 call and one fold easy game

Edit:  Does he call a shove for his entire stack w/ 88?  I def think we have some f/e.

as i said marty if he is a competent mtt player then he is not raise folding when his stack is 20bb or less , if this were a low buy in mtt then yes i think we have some FE also if villains stack was 22bb+ pre then yes again to FE..
My argument to calling is without info on his cbet tendencies is it is that pretty much 70% of the time we cannot continue from the flop and is a waste of chips.

[Marty719]

R we assuming he is not raising hands like AJs A10s utg+1 at 7/8 handed as well?

I agree that calling is bad wen we r this shallow.  I prefer shoving>folding tho as the fact that we are nearing the bubble may affect his stacking off decisions.  In reg spots he is gng to raise>stack off w/ <20x a lot of the time, but I think the approaching bubble may give us some extra f/e.  We also have a tight image which obv helps.

Imo shove>fold>small raise>call

[JamieCarra]

Obv we do have fold equity, think I prob fold this against UTG raise from a seemingly solid player.

Fold > Shove > small 3 bet > call

[WYoung83]

 You maybe should of reraised more pre flop. He probably suspected your small re-pop was weak, and he thought you had fold equity. If you would have quadrupled his raise, then he may of folded. But tricky spot. I think once he shoves you have to call anyway.

People who are saying you should fold, probably want to wait for others to go busto and then creep into the money. This is all well and good if you dont get blinded away, but isnt it better to try and get to the final table with chips to try and take this thing down. Thats what tourneys are all about imo.

[Marty719]

You maybe should of reraised more pre flop. He probably suspected your small re-pop was weak, and he thought you had fold equity. If you would have quadrupled his raise, then he may of folded. But tricky spot. I think once he shoves you have to call anyway.

Surely if we r gng to 4x his raise then we shud just shove?  No point making it 9k and leaving 7 behind.

[MintTrav]

difficult one, and I think your action can vary dependant on your desired outcome.  

Given that you didn"t intend to play this, and had planned to take the T$, I suspect that a min cash would probably suit your initial intentions, and folding here to limp over the bubble would be ok.

Agreed. If the $162 buy-in was significant for you, prob best to bank the increased amount for min-cash and then play on.

Otherwise, shoving, folding or a flat call in position are all possible, but imo a reraise to 5k is the worst possible option. You haven"t said what the purpose of your bet was. What did you want him to do?
- Call? - Hmmm, looks like he has something, but you have no idea what. You have created a pot of 12k with 11k behind. You"re prob in for a tough time on any flop.
- Shove? - Did you want him to shove on you? Apparently not, so why set it up for him?
- Fold? - If he does you were prob winning, so you"ve lost your customer, but at least avoided being outdrawn.

I think you need to know your desired response from him to your action before you take it. Also, know beforehand how you will then respond to whatever he does.

So, in this situation, call, shove, fold, whatever, but don"t reraise to one-third of your stack with no plan.

[AMRN]

difficult one, and I think your action can vary dependant on your desired outcome.  

Given that you didn"t intend to play this, and had planned to take the T$, I suspect that a min cash would probably suit your initial intentions, and folding here to limp over the bubble would be ok.

Agreed. If the $162 buy-in was significant for you, prob best to bank the increased amount for min-cash and then play on.

Otherwise, shoving, folding or a flat call in position are all possible, but imo a reraise to 5k is the worst possible option. You haven"t said what the purpose of your bet was. What did you want him to do?
- Call? - Hmmm, looks like he has something, but you have no idea what. You have created a pot of 12k with 11k behind. You"re prob in for a tough time on any flop.
- Shove? - Did you want him to shove on you? Apparently not, so why set it up for him?
- Fold? - If he does you were prob winning, so you"ve lost your customer, but at least avoided being outdrawn.

I think you need to know your desired response from him to your action before you take it. Also, know beforehand how you will then respond to whatever he does.

So, in this situation, call, shove, fold, whatever, but don"t reraise to one-third of your stack with no plan.

wot he said!

[Sugarnes]

Interesting discussion - thanks for everyone"s thoughts.  No plan - no hope ho-hum

In terms of attitude or approach to the tourney I agree with AMRN and WYoung - in terms of tournament approach a scrapping $320 cash would be a big hit for me and one to be pleased with.  But my mindset changed shortly into the tournament and I was much more focussed on better MTT play and not playing scared poker - something I"m a general expert at (great at doubling my money at $5-10 entries!) and want to change this year.  Anyhow in retrospect I am pleased with the approach and most of my play but probably should"ve employed better bankroll management for this kinda buy-in.

Back to the hand.  Rather than add much I would probably clarify my read on Villian"s play (which in this case seems to fit when they"re on there backs) - I think he raises initially on a wide range (low pairs mid-high suited connectors) - I may underestimate the importance he puts on position but I think the table dynamic says a raise is getting through a lot of the time and I"m stretching a bit but I do think his going quiet period was more about his potential spots being picked off rather than him changing pace and being a rock.  His shove range is much smaller I would probably include AJ,KQs but my gut said his deliberation was a genuine marginal decision (i.e. not pausing for effect with AA, KK or slow-playing for time with rags) and most of the time I was calling to race.

Putting that down and reading what everyone has put confirms more and more my main criticism looking back - raising wasn"t the best choice there.  Doesn"t seem like firm and unanimous decision but bottom line seems call / fold (to a c-bet on the kinda flop I had) or shove straight up would have been better choices most of the time...

Couple of questions I have thinking further on the scenario, one of which was alluded to by noble1. 

- If you know he has 88 do you pick this spot to race, or would most have held back?  The thing about the approaching bubble for me is that while it is only 10 people to fall that's more than 13% of the field - there"s a while yet - and much as I think I have enough to scrape through it will be an absolute scrape unless I hit some premium hands (that hold).
- Other thing bit out of left field what"s your plan if you"re the SB?  There"s a cheeky part of me that says getting your money in with a very wide range is a play with some sense - he risks (at worst) just over half his stack but with the action before him and to come he could hit a FT-size stack in one swoop.

[Marty719]

If I know he has 88 and will never fold then I fold.
If I know he has 88 and will fold a reasonable % of the time I will shove.

If he is raising such a wide range inc s/c and KJ KQ hands then shoving is 100% +EV

Im not calling off 50% of my stack as the SB without a monster.  It is wayyyy too big a portion of my 35k stack, 10 places can take a while when av stack is 20x.

[noble1]

Button   16k    Moi
SB   35k  
BB   11k

If he is raising such a wide range inc s/c and KJ KQ hands then shoving is 100% +EV

quite how we put villain on such a wide range at his stack size is beyond me with only that we have seen make him 2 calls with 99 and AJ , with no other showdowns being mentioned plus the term solid all adds upto wtf
To much assumption me thinks - When we put all our eggs into one basket by making a very precise, possibly incorrect deduction about an opponent"s cards, and when we base our betting decisions on that deduction, we front-load the difficulty of poker onto our (flawed) ability to extract (incomplete) information from a (loosely-wired) poker situation.
Our job is to play in such a way as to maximize our EV not against the single most-likely hand, but against the range of plausible hands an opponent could hold.With only the position he has raised from and his stack size to assume such a wide range is just plain BAD...Also with the call happy SB and a short stack BB then this makes the assumption that villains range is wide even worse imho...Add in the two players behind with call ranges of TT+ AK+ then at best imo everyone folds to a shove 28% of the time,this is not cEV+ thus how on earth we can think its mEV+ to race now ""to increase our chances of winning"" is ??