Bomb out....how would others approach?

[Swinebag]

Most of the time, I"m shipping all in here with my stack size

two factors have me folding this one pre though

1. limping ITM is acceptable here as you satted in and the min cash is a great return on your satty fee
2. Your read of UTG+1 has you flipping at best here (maybe AJ if you are v lucky). He also is calling a shove most (95-99%) of the time.

good run. ul. you need to win your races in tourneys and sometimes they are unavoidable. Win this one and you min cash and some maybe.

[WYoung83]

yes marty, iv just had a good look at it and you right. if you are repoping then you cant really get away from it when he shoves, but that is the reason for a bigger repop of 4x initial raise. With the 88, villan  knows he is either flipping, or way behind......(and my mum has just fallen down the stairs right now so i have to go and check on her)

[Marty719]

Button   16k    Moi
SB   35k  
BB   11k

If he is raising such a wide range inc s/c and KJ KQ hands then shoving is 100% +EV

quite how we put villain on such a wide range at his stack size is beyond me with only that we have seen make him 2 calls with 99 and AJ , with no other showdowns being mentioned plus the term solid all adds upto wtf
To much assumption me thinks - When we put all our eggs into one basket by making a very precise, possibly incorrect deduction about an opponent"s cards, and when we base our betting decisions on that deduction, we front-load the difficulty of poker onto our (flawed) ability to extract (incomplete) information from a (loosely-wired) poker situation.
Our job is to play in such a way as to maximize our EV not against the single most-likely hand, but against the range of plausible hands an opponent could hold.With only the position he has raised from and his stack size to assume such a wide range is just plain BAD...Also with the call happy SB and a short stack BB then this makes the assumption that villains range is wide even worse imho...Add in the two players behind with call ranges of TT+ AK+ then at best imo everyone folds to a shove 28% of the time,this is not cEV+ thus how on earth we can think its mEV+ to race now ""to increase our chances of winning"" is ??

Im not assigning him the range - OP does in his 2nd post.  If he opens s/c then shoving has to be good?

[noble1]

i"m not meaning to quote u marty but op , i just think that Sugarnes without or with little info to go by would find it better to assign a narrow range rather than a wide one till proven otherwise given villains stack size/position and opponent stack sizes.

But my mindset changed shortly into the tournament and I was much more focussed on better MTT play and not playing scared poker - something I"m a general expert at (great at doubling my money at $5-10 entries!) and want to change this year.

Variance can be a bitch in mtts, sometimes you can find yourself up in profit but just be on the upside of it.Playing MTTs is a matter of breaking even until you hit that big score mostly imho and as long as you make the best decisions for each situation then u cant go far wrong, laying AQ down is not scared poker as everything is ""it depends"" in poker it is very situational, being able to fold pre and post can be a good thing you know.

[Marty719]

I think he raises initially on a wide range (low pairs mid-high suited connectors) - I may underestimate the importance he puts on position but I think the table dynamic says a raise is getting through a lot of the time and I"m stretching a bit but I do think his going quiet period was more about his potential spots being picked off rather than him changing pace and being a rock.  His shove range is much smaller I would probably include AJ,KQs but my gut said his deliberation was a genuine marginal decision (i.e. not pausing for effect with AA, KK or slow-playing for time with rags) and most of the time I was calling to race.

^^Wide range assigned by OP who has taken time to analyse villains actions and observe his play^^

If he has AJ KQ type hands in his range then its an even better shoving scenario for us.  If villain is opening a lot then I doubt he is calling w/ his entire range.  Even if he opens A10+ KQ and all pp"s - I find it hard to believe he stacks off with all these hands and doesnt lay down a good % this close to the bubble.  ESP given OP"s tight image at the table.

[deanp27]

you have AQs and 16 bigs with antes

he"d have to be a huge nit for me to fold this

just ship it in and forget the tiny reraise with a 16bb stack, calling would be burning money

for better responses don"t tell people the result, because most of you answers are bound to be results orientated in some way

it also sounds like you re-raised without a plan, 3bet tanking 16bbs with AQs is a huge slowroll - you should be knowing what you are doing facing a shove before you re-raise

[samuel_9]

Obv we do have fold equity, think I prob fold this against UTG raise from a seemingly solid player.

Fold > Shove > small 3 bet > call

good fold

[MintTrav]

What would Dwan do? No need to wonder - here he is with AQ against a raise (from 88 as it happens) and seems to have around the same number of BBs as you. Admittedly it"s short-handed, not an MTT bubble, and he is short-stacked so totally different situation. Anyway, no surprise, he shoves it in over the top - standard. De Wolfe calls and, like your guy, hits his set. The problem with your game, though, is that you don"t run like Dwan and I suggest that you work on this aspect. However, even he doesn"t think he will suck out this time - he hands in his microphone and leaves the room - then has to come back when the inevitable happens.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh0xMcmupg0&feature=related

[Sound is screwed btw.]

[Eck]

Unless i have the guy down as Uber tight I is a shoving them all in here most times.

Reasons:

Still 10 to go till bubble and if u don"t get chips you are a prime target for abuse.
You may still need to win a hand to survive to bubble.
You have some fold equity.
You shouldn"t be too bad against a decent range if called.
F**k  min cashing win this hand and you can then pick some spots to grow your stack around the bubble.

[kinboshi]

you have AQs and 16 bigs with antes

he"d have to be a huge nit for me to fold this

just ship it in and forget the tiny reraise with a 16bb stack, calling would be burning money

for better responses don"t tell people the result, because most of you answers are bound to be results orientated in some way

it also sounds like you re-raised without a plan, 3bet tanking 16bbs with AQs is a huge slowroll - you should be knowing what you are doing facing a shove before you re-raise

This.

16BBs, you have loads of FE, you might well have him crushed, and it"s very tough for him to call with a medium pair and if he does you simply have to hit.  If you"re folding this, are you looking to raise with a far worse hand as long as you"re first in?  

The other thing to remember is that your cards are green.  You just can"t fold them.