STT End Game Strategy

[AMRN]

I think I have a reasonable handle on STTs, and tend to cash in circa 40% of games, and turn a steady profit over time. Even though it has become a maths game, I try to continually evaluate and improve. I played a hand earlier in a single table SNG that got me thinking about my end-game strategy.

Scenario is as follows: (standard Pokerstars format)
Buy in - $27 (buy in irrelevant for the example, but just trying to set the scene - ie it"s not a $0.10 donkabout)
9 seater
Turbo (5 min clock)
Payout to last three as 50%/30%/20%
Player on the button has open raised 3xBB 7 of the last 10 hands, although only shown QJs, KJo, 87s when knocking three players out. He"s playing loose and fast, and tending to get lucky when called.  Player on the BB is tight as a gnat"s ass.

We are down to last three and ITM.

Blinds 100/200/a25

Example 1:

Button 6000
SB 3500 (Me)
BB 3000

Button opens to 600
In SB, I have A3o..... Action?

Example 2:

Button 7500
SB 5900 (Me)
BB 100

Button opens to 600
In SB, I have A3o..... Action?

[hi_am_chris]

Only had a quick think but i think i prefer a fold in the first one, i think you are too likely to get called and best case scenario is 60 40 although the advantage with an ace is you always have one live card so your never usually crushed but i think im looking for a better spot. The second hand i dont think the blinds are big enough to warrant getting involved, let him take a shot at the short stack and then whoop his ass heads up.

[duke3016]

so so 1st -- but I would fold (shock horror)

deffo fold 2nd - cos smally can"t fold and you can then (as Chris says) crush the other eejit HU


but thats just me  

[LongshanksED]

1st  hand insta fold.

2nd one is tough but I think I would call and hopefully check it down to eliminate the bb.  Probably behind but you can always catch cards. An should bb treble up you still have 4k-5k to play with for a few more orbits

[jbworldwide]

1st  hand insta fold.

2nd one is tough but I think I would call and hopefully check it down to eliminate the bb.  Probably behind but you can always catch cards. An should bb treble up you still have 4k-5k to play with for a few more orbits

this one, but saying that I may be inclined to jam in the first example as going for the win is that aim, but it is situational.

2nd one def flat to eliminate the bb

[hi_am_chris]

I think calling the second one most of the time your going to end up trebbling up the short stack or giving 500 more chips that you dont need to give to the big stack, if im him  (the big stack) im prob not checking any flop

[Jon MW]

50% of the prize pool goes to 1st place - so example 1 I"d jam.

The button has open raised 7 out of the last 10

I can"t really see how people can think that you"d probably get called.

I"d say the most likely thing is he"d fold because he didn"t have a good enough hand to risk over half his stack with, if he did call I think you"re likely to be ahead.

If he"s got a pair or got a higher ace or outdraws you, then never mind - next time in that situation the oppo probably won"t.

Example 2 I"d go with flatting it and trying to knock the short stack out.
Effectively it"s a random hand versus 2 random hands - he"s odds on to get knocked out.
And even if he doesn"t he"s still the short stack by a significant margin.

[Jon MW]

... if im him  (the big stack) im prob not checking any flop

hence - a good time to float, don"t you think?

[mal666]

This thread has convinced me there is still value in 1 table sng`s.

[LongshanksED]

$2000+ profit playing 10-20 euro sit n gos last calender year

mostly 5 man but some 10 or 30 person also

[AMRN]

50% of the prize pool goes to 1st place - so example 1 I"d jam.

The button has open raised 7 out of the last 10

My thoughts too. Jam Example 1 as there are so many hands he just can"t call with, and jamming means the tighty in the BB can"t play unless he has a monster. A3 is going to be ahead of the button"s range so much of the time.

Example 2: Actually I would fold. I would want to avoid the horrible situation where I connect with the flop and end up all in against the button... lose the side pot and get knocked out, but see the shortstack win the small main pot and get to HU.

This thread has convinced me there is still value in 1 table sng`s.

As recently as 6 months ago I could make a decent return on these on Stars.... but it"s getting so damned hard now.

[shozboy1]

although I haven"t invested in it it would be worthwhile plugging it into SNG wizard and seeing if each situation is + or -EV. i would easily fold hand 1 and call hand 2 and hope to check it down

[Swinebag]

first hand I jam. A3o probably plays ok against his range here and oppo is folding enough times to make this profitable.

second hand - errrr??? If I had more chips than villain, I"d jam again. But we dont so I wont. I"d fold here to preserve my chips for the HU battle.

These are both maths decisions though. Any takers to spew the figures out??

[noble1]

u got the chip counts right AMRN  ? 13500 chips in play in std 9 handed turbo..
Anyhows if i stick the extra on , this what i think -
hand 1 only push - 88+ ATs+ AJo+
hand 2 only push - 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo  hand 2 i give a push range of around 14to15% as i think u have far more fold equity..

hand1 i added an extra 1000 chips to the button , if he is a reg i"d expect him to raise around 40% , your equity is to high to push to wide unless u have a good idea of villains call range here..if he is a reg then i"d expect him to call with about 1/2 this range so A3o is a NO NO imho.. Even if i add no chips for hand1 to u or villain i"d still expect BTT to open around 40% of his range but with your equity the push range is still narrow imo around 7%


A3o versus a 20% call range [so he folds 50% of range]
Ac3s - 41.288%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 58.712%

so if he is playing correctly [imo] then opening his top 40% would not be to surprising to see 7out of 10 raises on the button short handed.

[Mikeyboy9361]

50% of the prize pool goes to 1st place - so example 1 I"d jam.

The button has open raised 7 out of the last 10

My thoughts too. Jam Example 1 as there are so many hands he just can"t call with, and jamming means the tighty in the BB can"t play unless he has a monster. A3 is going to be ahead of the button"s range so much of the time.

Example 2: Actually I would fold. I would want to avoid the horrible situation where I connect with the flop and end up all in against the button... lose the side pot and get knocked out, but see the shortstack win the small main pot and get to HU.

This thread has convinced me there is still value in 1 table sng`s.

As recently as 6 months ago I could make a decent return on these on Stars.... but it"s getting so damned hard now.

I was just saying the same thing to the Mrs last night!