STT End Game Strategy

[AMRN]

u got the chip counts right AMRN  ? 13500 chips in play in std 9 handed turbo..

13500 is correct. 9 x 1500 = 13500

Anyhows if i stick the extra on , this what i think -
hand 1 only push - 88+ ATs+ AJo+
hand 2 only push - 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo  hand 2 i give a push range of around 14to15% as i think u have far more fold equity..

hand1 i added an extra 1000 chips to the button , if he is a reg i"d expect him to raise around 40% , your equity is to high to push to wide unless u have a good idea of villains call range here..if he is a reg then i"d expect him to call with about 1/2 this range so A3o is a NO NO imho.. Even if i add no chips for hand1 to u or villain i"d still expect BTT to open around 40% of his range but with your equity the push range is still narrow imo around 7%


A3o versus a 20% call range [so he folds 50% of range]
Ac3s - 41.288%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 58.712%

so if he is playing correctly [imo] then opening his top 40% would not be to surprising to see 7out of 10 raises on the button short handed.

Example 1 was the real hand that I played. I figured that Button was raising most hands here - possibly ALL hands (this is the first hand we play since bubble burst). Therefore, I figure that if I shove, he will fold a lot of the time, and if he calls, A3 is ahead of much of his calling range (looking at calls he made in previous hands BEFORE bubble burst).  I also figured that as I was fairly equally stacked with the guy in the BB, and I needed to accumulate chips reasonably quickly to win - now that I"ve cashed I"m aiming for first, not to ladder.   I shoved.

I created Example 2 to try and figure out what the dynamics of the exact same hand would be if the third guy in the equation was micro stacked..... ie does the ladder become more important when 2nd place is so much more tangible and likely.

[noble1]

in example 2 if he is a reg [plays nearly correctly ] then if u push your fold equity is enormous , if u think he calls light even with the micro stack then obv fold..All on the read of his ability, i can see your logic for hand1 but i think u over estimate your FE here, your reads of his 3 hands showndown suggest he is raising correctly , the 78s call maybe dubious but without knowing odds/how he"d read vilain etc then i think expecting him to call the top 20% is fair..If u ICM it i"ll be very surprised if A3o is good enough to push.. plugged it in holdem resource for a quick view and it was pretty near.
Have a tinker - http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html
without no hard info on his call range i"d err on the tight side and would want to push a better ace kicker, there is just to many in his range..

Button 6000
SB 3500 (Me)
BB 3000  
= 12500

[AMRN]

Button 6000
SB 3500 (Me)
BB 3000  
= 12500

good point - looks like I lost 1000 in the rounding

[noble1]

I also figured that as I was fairly equally stacked with the guy in the BB, and I needed to accumulate chips reasonably quickly to win - now that I"ve cashed I"m aiming for first, not to ladder.   I shoved.

finish 3rd or first is the best approach imho so i agree with your logic here , just not the hand selection the problem is most other players have this approach now and A3o even against a random hand is only a 55% fav , when u figure that/if villain has same approach i fold A3o everytime , i"d rather play KJo for example against his range as u describe him..

If we think he calls 50% of his raise range -
KdJs - 44.449%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 55.551%

the 3.2% extra will help long term..

[Jon MW]

I also figured that as I was fairly equally stacked with the guy in the BB, and I needed to accumulate chips reasonably quickly to win - now that I"ve cashed I"m aiming for first, not to ladder.   I shoved.

finish 3rd or first is the best approach imho so i agree with your logic here , just not the hand selection the problem is most other players have this approach now and A3o even against a random hand is only a 55% fav , when u figure that/if villain has same approach i fold A3o everytime , i"d rather play KJo for example against his range as u describe him..

If we think he calls 50% of his raise range -
KdJs - 44.449%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 55.551%

the 3.2% extra will help long term..

He"s raising 70% of his hands, so I don"t think he"s going to call half his stack off half the time.

I think the most likely option is that he"ll fold, but even if he doesn"t I"d rather that I was the slight favourite and not him.

If he"s raised 7 out of the last 10, what range of hands are you waiting for to shove on him?

Seems a bit tight to fold Ace rag given how likely it is to be ahead.

[noble1]

7 out of 10 raises getting dealt top 40% isnt a stretch jon and 3 of the showdowns dont suggest to me to put him on anything wider..If u icm it is a obv fold , plus my thoughts on A3o and how it plays against there range against this type are above ^ ...

[bigredders]

i must be playing these wrong....im shoving the first hand all day long... you have an ace 3handed?!

2nd obv call.

i find that there is more value in 2 table sng"s now... nobody knows how to play them

[Jon MW]

7 out of 10 raises getting dealt top 40% isnt a stretch jon and 3 of the showdowns dont suggest to me to put him on anything wider..If u icm it is a obv fold , plus my thoughts on A3o and how it plays against there range against this type are above ^ ...

It may be player dependant, but I don"t think that a player who has raised 7 out of 10 when three handed has coincidentally been dealt top 40% hands, I think he is aiming to be the first raiser as often as possible.

What is the range you"re re shoving with? Does the frequency they"re likely to be dealt add up with the blinds and antes?

...2nd obv call.
...

Although this is my generic hypothetical response, I can see that this is very very much player dependent, basically if I think the other player is "likely" to win the pot then I"ll fold pre flop.

That is more or less the same as, if I think the player will out play me post flop.

So almost never then.  

[Jon MW]

Also, the 3 hands shown to knock players out were by definition - not when it was 3 handed, so I don"t think they"re necessarily relevant to the current situation.

And this is a turbo - blinds go up every 5 minutes. Just thought a reminder was needed in terms of the hand range to re shove. If you wait another 10 hands to show that he"s raising 7 out of 10 of those as well then you"re in a lot worse position.

[noble1]

Also, the 3 hands shown to knock players out were by definition - not when it was 3 handed, so I don"t think they"re necessarily relevant to the current situation.

And this is a turbo - blinds go up every 5 minutes. Just thought a reminder was needed in terms of the hand range to re shove. If you wait another 10 hands to show that he"s raising 7 out of 10 of those as well then you"re in a lot worse position.

generally my opinion is that in sngs players main mistakes are maybe over-valuing A-x type hands, generally shoving too wide and over-estimating there fold equity but i"ll save that debate for another day
You got me thinking Jon, maybe not a good thing lol .. We know the blinds are going up next to 200/400 a25 , so the reasons i question shoving A3o apart from fold equity, calling range of villain and ICM equity, is the pick up of 975 chips going to change/improve AMRN"s stategy..If villain folds and the blinds go up we have 11bb, if we fold and the blinds go up we have 9bb so are we looking for a call?, we need villain to make an incorrect assessment of AMRN"s hand range to double up.. Is it worth the risk? as i"d rather push fold correctly when the blinds go up...


If we shove then villain has odds of 1.54 to 1 so 39% to call, if he is raising a optimum range intending to call any shove by the sb or bb because he thinks they will shove incorrectly [beyond 88+ ATs+ AJo+ for sb QQ+ for bb] icm or not he is correct to call with a range of 39% and beyond [cEV+]
If we pokerstove what we think his optimum range is versus A3o this the result -
Ac3s - 46.921%
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o - 53.079%

put aside opinions on ICM equity and we look at hand selection versus his possible wide hand range, this is what KJo looks like when stoved -
KcJs - 51.654%
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o - 48.346%

when you look at possible hands which are favoured over this wide calling range [50%+] then i"d prefer A5s+ A8o+ KTs+ KTo+ 55+ if i was to look at it through my long term glasses if we are going to shove hoping to be called.
If villains calls super wide ATC he is getting the correct odds to anyway against A3o , with his stack and the fact we are ITM,the odds we are giving him then i cannot see much FE plus the extra 975 chips pick up if he folds just makes it a bad idea to shove in this situation imho.

[JamieCarra]

Would you consider yourself a strong (winning) SNG player noble?  

[mal666]

$2000+ profit playing 10-20 euro sit n gos last calender year

mostly 5 man but some 10 or 30 person also

Sold.