Also, the 3 hands shown to knock players out were by definition - not when it was 3 handed, so I don"t think they"re necessarily relevant to the current situation.
And this is a turbo - blinds go up every 5 minutes. Just thought a reminder was needed in terms of the hand range to re shove. If you wait another 10 hands to show that he"s raising 7 out of 10 of those as well then you"re in a lot worse position.
generally my opinion is that in sngs players main mistakes are maybe over-valuing A-x type hands, generally shoving too wide and over-estimating there fold equity but i"ll save that debate for another day
You got me thinking Jon, maybe not a good thing lol .. We know the blinds are going up next to 200/400 a25 , so the reasons i question shoving A3o apart from fold equity, calling range of villain and ICM equity, is the pick up of 975 chips going to change/improve AMRN"s stategy..If villain folds and the blinds go up we have 11bb, if we fold and the blinds go up we have 9bb so are we looking for a call?, we need villain to make an incorrect assessment of AMRN"s hand range to double up.. Is it worth the risk? as i"d rather push fold correctly when the blinds go up...
If we shove then villain has odds of 1.54 to 1 so 39% to call, if he is raising a optimum range intending to call any shove by the sb or bb because he thinks they will shove incorrectly [beyond 88+ ATs+ AJo+ for sb QQ+ for bb] icm or not he is correct to call with a range of 39% and beyond [cEV+]
If we pokerstove what we think his optimum range is versus A3o this the result -
Ac3s - 46.921%
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o - 53.079%
put aside opinions on ICM equity and we look at hand selection versus his possible wide hand range, this is what KJo looks like when stoved -
KcJs - 51.654%
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o - 48.346%
when you look at possible hands which are favoured over this wide calling range [50%+] then i"d prefer A5s+ A8o+ KTs+ KTo+ 55+ if i was to look at it through my long term glasses if we are going to shove hoping to be called.
If villains calls super wide ATC he is getting the correct odds to anyway against A3o , with his stack and the fact we are ITM,the odds we are giving him then i cannot see much FE plus the extra 975 chips pick up if he folds just makes it a bad idea to shove in this situation imho.