For the first time for several years I"m not going, but I"m off work every day of the festival and will be glued to the TV every day of Cheltenham. My observations for day one are as follows:
1) Supreme novices hurdle. Dunguib is a worthy favourite, but taking into consideration that he is far from fluid over his hurdles, he is completely unbackable at his current price. I fancy Get Me Out Of here at 6-1 who has at least proved his credentials in a big field against more experienced opponents.
2) Arkle Chase. Probably the most competitive renewal of this event in the years I"ve been following racing. I"ll be backing Somersby who finished 3rd in last year"s Supreme Novices Hurdle and I think looks even better over fences. After winning the Arkle, I expect him to step up in trip and give kauto Star something to think about in the next King George.
3) William Hill Handicap Chase. David Pipe"s The Package has attracted a stack of money this week and seems to tick all the right boxes. If Our Vic runs, I think he represents great value at the current 25-1 and I"ll also be keeping an eye on Palypso De Creek who I"ve backed for the Grand National at 100-1
4) Champion Hurdle. Again a very open renewal with at least 10 horses in with a genuine chance. Current favourite Go Native has the most bombproof form and at 7-2 I feel is a very reasonable price. However, he is far from unbeatable and there is value elsewhere. I raved about Starluck before last year"s Triumph Hurdle and after cruising to the last, he folded rather tamely to finish 4th. However, the Triumph Hurdle is run on a different course to the Championship and the average race time is several seconds longer. With that and the fact that the ground is likely to be a little bit quicker than last year, I think that Starluck being the quickest horse in the field on the flat will be there or there abouts. I also expect Celestial Halo to be involved. He was also a very high class flat horse (7th in the St leger) with a good record at the festival (won a Triumph Hurdle, 2nd in last year"s champion) and probably won"t have too much competition for the lead. His last run was poor, but he will be wearing blinkers for the first time, so I will be amazed if he isn"t involved in the finish.
5) Cross Country Chase. On the whole it is madness to back anything not trained by Enda Bolger whose entire year seems to revolve around this race and the 2 cross country events at the Punchestown festival. This year I would be very interested in Monkerhostin if he takes part. He is very versatile having won a Tote Gold Trophy over hurdles at 2 miles and several decent races over fences at 3 miles. Last time out, he defied his 13 years to win again and at the current 14-1 is well worth a look
