Cheltenham festival

[monkeyman]

The more I look at it, the more the Champion Hurdle gives me a headache. The only horse declared who can safely be ruled out is Raise Your Heart who will probably be beaten 50-60 lengths.
  Jumbo Rio is far from the worst 100-1 shot I"ve ever seen. He"d have won a french Grade 1 hurdle in November had it not been for the jockey making a pig"s ear of things on the run in. Apart from that, he"s been running against all the best horses in Ireland and has never been beaten far over there. The main inponderable when assessing his form is that he won"t have run in a race run at the pace of the Champion Hurdle and he certainly won"t have run on ground like he is going to encounter on tuesday, but I see these as reasons why he might possibly show improved form. He raced mainly at 10-12 furlongs on the flat and in most of his race reports there is a comment about him running on strongly at the end of the race. In last year"s Triumph Hurdle he was prominent most of the way, led 2 out then faded on the run in. However, in his next run he won the equivalent race at the Punchestown festival, this time by being held-up way off the pace. In this year"s Champion there are more hold-up horses than those who are likely to force the pace (Celestial Halo,Zaynar) which could potentially lead to traffic problems even in a relatively small field. However, as there is not much between most of the runners, it may be worth risking a small interest on a consistent young horse who demonstrated his best form coming from off the pace in a championship race and will for the first time be able to try these tactics in a lightning quick race on good ground. Might be worth a couple of quid on value grounds alone.  

[monkeyman]

I"ve just paid a visit to my local Laddies and have placed a five horse each way multiple which covers every combination of trebles and upwards. The five selections are:

1) Somersby in the Arkle Chase at 9-2. Only 1.5 lengths behind Go Native in last year"s Supreme Novices Hurdle, the best jumper of a fence in the race and with proven graded chase form in the book I think he"ll win and won"t hear of him being out of the first 3.
2) Tell Massini in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle at 4-1. 3 out of 3 over hurdles including 2 graded wins around Cheltenham,  one over 3 miles. There are likely to be horses who perhaps haven"t got the same form under their belts, Willie Mullins" Enterprise Park springs to mind, who show apparently improved form trying 3 miles for the first time, but Tell Massini is a worthy favourite and I"d be surprised if he wasn"t at least placed.
3)Peddlers Cross in the Neptune Investment Novice hurdle at 8-1. Both starts over hurdles were at 2 miles and both were won convincingly, the second a grade 2 at Haydock by 16 lengths. Is likely to run in this race rather than against Dunguib in the Supreme Novices hurdle, but as a point to point winner, I don"t expect the step up in trip to be a problem. Even if I"ve guessed his intended target wrong, I"ve got non-runner no bet on all selections, so I think I"ve got a very reasonable price.
4) Sericina in the Foxhunters chase at 10-1. Multiple point to point winner who won her only start under rules by 7 lengths. Will be trained by Paul Nicholls after this race whatever the result and for that reason alone I think the double figure price represents very good value.
5) Deep Purple in the Ryanair chase at 20-1. Two high quality runs earlier in the season over 2.5 and 3 miles and was then pulled up because of bleeding in the King George. Still not 100% if he"ll run, but the non-runner no bet concession means that if he does line up, I believe I"ll have a huge price about the best horse in the race.

Narrowly missing the cut for the bet was a horse in the champion bumper, but I"ll come back to that one later in the week.      

[smileriraq]

cheers guys im going this thursday with some freinds and family but know nothing about horse racing so this thread is invaluable

[monkeyman]

cheers guys im going this thursday with some freinds and family but know nothing about horse racing so this thread is invaluable

From a punting perspective I think thursday is the most difficult day of the lot, but I"ll try and work my way through the form on the Racing Post website on wednesday night and post my opinions on here so you"ve got a few horses names to work with.
 Don"t go making any big spending plans on the basis of my tips. If I was that good, I wouldn"t be working in a call centre!  
   

[smileriraq]

cheers fella muchos appreciated

tbh im going for the experience of it ive set aside money to put on the Gee Gees so if i lose it all fine if i win then my son can have food for the rest of the month (no pressure )

[jacklevel06]

[ThinkerJE]

Homework started for day 1 tomorrow, think it will be a quiet day from a punting point of view with only the 1 handicap (X country does not count) to get stuck into.  Selections (for what they are worth) to follow, cannot wait till tapes up at 1.30pm, the best racing week of the year!!!

[Swinebag]

well I"ve gone for.....

1.30 - no selection. this will be my best result in this race for 8 years
2.05 - riverside theatre
2.40 - the package
3.20 - kyber kim
4.00 - garde champetre
4.40 - no selection

[janc]

so pi$$ed off that I"m at work and cant get the time off
gl guys

[ThinkerJE]

Wow day 1 is tough and as such I will be keeping stakes low and looking for some bigger prices to be placed.

Supreme Novice Hurdle
Dunguib is obviously very talented but can"t be backed at that price (and he"s on the drift), with his jumping to be tested and a massive field.  So I have gone for BLACKSTAIRMOUNTAIN for Mullins & Walsh with big runs expected from his other runner FLAT OUT and from Henderson"s OSCAR WHISKY.  Will probably bet with Paddy Power just in case Dunguib is the real deal as the bet will be refunded.

Arkle Trophy
This event is wide open.  Cases can be made for 6 or 7 of the runners but I have bokked the Mullins/Walsh partnership again with SPORT LINE.  It has a nice profile and could be very classy.  I also think Nicholls might get a big run out of WOOLCOMBE FOLLY (in the news after the accident with Sam Thomas), but this will be a small stakes affair.

William Hill Trophy
Finally a top handicap to get stuck into and there are some very good trends in this race.  The profile is a 7 or 8 year old, carrying less than 11st that finished in the top 3 last time out.  The other factor is to avoid the favourite (only 1 winner in the last 10 years), but the sp must be 7/1 or less.  So I cannot be sure of my final choice until post time but BENSALEM fits the profile well (hopefully he does not start favourite then I can lump on), others to consider are THEATRICAL MOMENT & OGEE, I think the winner will be one of those three.  For place purpose the higher weights come back into it and I like RAZOR ROYALE & EXMOOR RANGER.  This will surely be the big betting race of a quiet punting day.

Champion Hurdle
Like the Arkle this is also wide open with 7 or 8 potential winners and little to choose between them.  Therefore stakes will be low again and i will plump for PUNJABI to defend his crown.  For place purposes at big prices i like WON IN THE DARK & JUMBO RIO.  This could go down to the wire with 5 or 6 still in contention at the last hurdle.

Cross Country Chase
This should be renamed the Edna Bolger Race and I think GARDE CHAMPETRE will win for the 3rd year running, loves the track, plenty of class, will leave it late but the amazing Nina Carberry will get him home.  Place spots can got to ANOTHER JEWEL (not trained by Bolger but did win the Punchestown trial at the end of January) & FRENEY"S WELL (although I would not put you off DROMBEAG or HEADS ONTHE GROUND either).  Can decide whether to bet big in this, may depend on how things have gone so far in the day (one of the races I am more confident about).

Mares Hurdle
I am a trends man and so will struggle as there has only been 2 previous runnings of this race.  Both have been won by 5 year olds; so I am sticking with them and keeping stakes very low.  So lets hope STRAVINSKY DANCE, NO ONE TELLS ME or PEPITE DE SOLEIL can do the business.

A quiet start to the festival with the majority of the bankroll saved for the bigger handicaps still to come.  A few winners would be nice to get things going though...

[ThinkerJE]

well I"ve gone for.....

1.30 - no selection. this will be my best result in this race for 8 years

BETFRED are refunding all losing bets in this race Rob, so it will still be your best result and you are on a freeroll!!!

2.05 - riverside theatre
2.40 - the package
3.20 - kyber kim
4.00 - garde champetre
4.40 - no selection

[monkeyman]

Here we go. For the first time this, week below is a complete run down of my thoughts for the Cheltenham racing to follow .I make no claims to being the world"s greatest punter, but at least you"ll see more sense in this post than you"ll hear through John McCrirrick"s entire career. If nothing else, it will give you plenty of ammunition if you feel like putting any abusive messages on my blog.

1.30. Supreme Novices Hurdle. Despite the numbers, this isn"t the most competitive race of the festival and can be narrowed down to 2 horses. Dunguib wouldn"t surprise me if he won by 10 lengths, but there are sufficient doubts about him to rule out backing him at his current price. Paddy Power"s offer to return all losing singles on other horses if Dunguib wins makes this a no-brainer; back Get Me Out of Here with Paddy Power. Easy really.

2.05. Arkle Chase. Somersby got very close to Go Native in last year"s Supreme Novices Hurdle and has been very impressive over fences this year. 4-1 may not represent huge value, but I think he"s the best horse in the race so I"m looking no further. If you fancy something a little more fruity, try Mad Max at 25-1. An absolutely immense horse, he was always going to be better over fences than hurdles and he was pretty good at that. His first attempt over the larger obstacles was at Kempton, which I don"t think would have been his ideal course, and resulted in a victory. His second race was in a grade 2 at Doncaster when he finished 3rd. The winner was Woolcombe Folly (also 25-1 in this race), a 147 rated hurdler who was carrying 7 lbs less. Mad Max was only beaten by 4 lengths, so bearing the weight concession in mind, he emerges as the best performer from that race.  

2.40. William Hill Handicap Chase. On the face of it a very competitive race. This normally goes to a horse carrying less than 11st and The Package has been the subject of substantial backing, but The Tother One is weighted to reverse the form of their meeting here in December. Bensalem has also proved popular, but his jumping has been suspect and I"d be concerned about backing him at 4 times his current price. I like the look of Ogee. Winner of 3 of his 4 chases, his only defeat came in the Grade 1 Feltham Novices chase at Kempton over christmas. Crucially, his hurdle rating was 143 and he is racing here off 137, so he could be well treated, although he will have the additional burden of my money.

3.20. Champion Hurdle. Ultra competitive and I won"t decide who to back until I"ve seen the prices just before the off. I may be tempted by Jumbo Rio if he can still be backed at a treble-figure price, but at 9-2 favourite Go Native has started to look like value.

4.00. Cross Country Chase. Garde Champetre is the best horse in this race and has the best rider of this course in Nina Carberry. However, 16-1 about such a classy, versatile horse as Monkerhostin  is too big and I will be very tempted.

4.40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle. Voler La Vedette is the best horse in the race and I see no reason to look any further even at 7-4. Simplez

[janc]

Just to make it interesting
punjabi 8/1 on betfair
and a small ew on double dizzy in the cross country 40/1 and 5.5/1 the place

[Ant1966]

1.30 Get me out of here.
2.05 Somersby
2.40 The package
3.20 Punjabi

Not going to get you rich and i hate backing short price horses at the festival,but these are my boks for 2mor.

[bigredders]

Tuesday"s thoughts and bets.... Can"t wait!

Supreme - I have raving about Oscar Whisky since winning his last race, giving 6lb to a decently regarded horse and not even breaking into a sweat. I think he is the value against Dunguib, which will probably win, but with Paddy Power going money back if he does could just never back it, esp at those odds in such a competitive field. Could not have Menorah on my mind after being beaten by Lush Life, stablemate of Oscar Whisky. Look out for Dan Breen at a big price.

Arkle - After much consideration and mind changing i think that Somersby won"t win tommorow. I just think that the trip is too short. This horse will win a gold cup in time. I have also decided that it is such an open race. Captain Cee Bee is a strong favourite (still regretting not backing this last year!) and for that reason Sizing Europe is discarded (i feel that ccb had the beating in their last match up before his fall) i like the look of Riverside Theatre and looks a real jumper in the making. I think that at small small stakes this is my selection but not at all confident. Look out for Mad Max and Kangaroo Court at big prices.

Will Hill Chase - Although Benselem has claims and you have to fear The Package just because it is a Pipe horse i think Character Building has a big chance. He seems to fit all the trends for the race and is a couple of points bigger in the betting than he should be because of a slightly unfashionable Northern stable. Although it goes against all the trends i think a couple of quid E/W on Joe Lively could give you a good run. He absolutely loves running at Cheltenham and has some impressive form there.

Champion Hurdle - The more i look at the race, the more open it becomes. If Go Native was an E/W price i would be steaming in, but i am very wary of betting on the nose in such an open race as this. Having had Celestial Halo as my best bet last year (that still hurts!) i think he has a chance in this. You can"t discount Punjabi as they think he is a Spring horse. Twiston Davies is very bullish on the chances of Kyber Kim and woulding discount Solwhit either. The two i wouldn"t be backing are the 2 Henderson horses. Binocular for obvious reasons and Zaynar because i think he is more of a stayer. After all that i am going for Starluck E/W. Another that is a bigger price because of an unfashionable stable, he has the class, the speed and the jockey. I just hope he doesn"t get outstayed!

X country - Garde Champetre. Best jockey, best course form, best horse. Weight doesn"t really matter in these kind of races. That is all!

David Nicholson - Two horse race in my opinion. Although i respect Voler La Vedette i think Quevega will win this well. I don"t think Mullins would send this over if she wasn"t A1, therefore she is a confident choice.