Cash Hand - How to play the strong draw on the turn?

[Mikeyboy9361]

I"d probably feel we are behind by the time the turn comes and he bets alittle more than 1/2 pot. However, you still have top pair with a big draw. He could easily have a set of 44"s or 2 pair here. I dont think there"s any hands in his range here that fit with this line, that you currently beat.
However, given we know he"s strong, if we hit our river, we could easily get all his stack so have nice implied odds here.

Therefore I"d call and fold to a strong river bet if we miss. Nitty, I know, but if you raise the turn, he could easily shove, and are probably compelled to call but probably not loving that spot.

Pretty much my line too.

[TheSnapper]

Interesting spot Steve, any decision here is really dependent on villains image and to a lesser extent, your image. So reads are critical.

I do like to check behind this spot more often than not(Against a 40/10/1 station I bet for value). You may be ahead but your hand is weak and this is a good spot for draws with lots of equity to semi bluff check raise, but those hands lose a lot of their equity if they whiff the turn.

As played,  If he"s a competent non maniac player , and you have"nt given him reason to adjust his ranges, I may just fold to flop cr, you are often behind, seldom way ahead and likely facing a decent turn lead.

The turn lead is small and could equally be, a made flush or scared of the flush type hand, it does offer decent odds to hit your draws. Problem is, its unlikely you stack him if you hit and you may even get stacked yourself should you hit. Basically from the flop check raise on you are in a spot where you will win a small pot or lose a big pot. By checking the flop the hand is so much easier to play.

[UKChamp]

I think sb range preflop is less weighted to higher aces and more composed small pairs, junk connectors etc. I rule out JJ/TT as these will more often than not be 3bet pre vis middle position opener.

Flop action:
>is he raising for value/protection a J hand - less likely with few J hands in range beyond JT/JJ/J9s
>is he raising with a flsuh draw - likely given his prf range
>is he turning a potential value hand into a bluff (small middle pairs) to find where he is
>is he raising with flop set or two pair - possible without stats not clear if this would ord be a pot size raise
>cant rule out bluff chk raise bluff

Turn action:
>weve been check raised and led out into - bet sizing doesnt give much away but clearly any raise would commit you
>mistake/bluff - turn bet scares many medium strenth flop hands that dont want to grow a pot
>if we raise we likely fold out bare draws that we beat ie pair with lower diamond etc
>if we flat we may get missed draws and lower pair holdings on river to bluff
>if we raise we are donking off to hands that have us crushed - villain cant really give us credit for flsuh based on flop action and shove on turn alone - so fold equity seems slim versus this range
>if we are behind to two pair and sets we still have outs on the river but are likely not to get paid off
>any sub prime flush draws we beat pay us off with mistake value bets oop on the river when diamond hits


Overall I vear towards call turn call river whatever comes, largely dependant on villain stats but more often than not i thin k i save a few BB when the villain checks down scared set or two pair. Of course by not betting we dont get more value from hands we beat but there is no value to be had betting on the rievr so I am fine with pot control line on this on the assumption peole make too many mistakes when they bet on the river. But it really is as marginal as they come