Cash Hand - How to play the strong draw on the turn?

[AMRN]

A hand I played earlier that has got me thinking....

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($50.95)
SB ($50)
BB ($7.25)
UTG ($37.70)
MP1 ($50)
AMRN (MP2) ($51.05)
CO ($35.95)

Preflop: AMRN is MP2 with A, 10
2 folds, AMRN bets $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.50) 4, A, J (2 players)
SB checks, AMRN bets $2, SB raises to $6, AMRN calls $4

Turn: ($15.50) K (2 players)
SB bets $8..............

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OK so now what? We have top pair with reasonable kicker, and have the nut flush and nut straight draw. The SB has only been on the table for one orbit - no reads.

Call: Do we flat call and hope to hit? But what if we don"t improve on the river, and the SB bets/shoves?  If so, are we then potentially folding the best hand with our top pair?

Raise: Do we raise with the strong draw, but recognise that any raise here will commit to the pot, therefore is it actually correct to shove here?  Also, given that any draws on the flop will look like they just hit, is this a good spot to make a semi-bluff to force the better hand to fold?

Fold: Do we fold?? Is folding far too nitty here?

[treydj]

steve

cant see the suits of the card dealt?
any player reads?

Cheers

Jas

[THEGUY84]

This is defo a tough spot, I would prob call in this spot.  They could be strong here AJ or set is a poss, but also could reraise flop with weak A  or KJ to see where they are or they could have pair and flush draw, but with no reads it tought to predict what range they check raise with.

I guess I would take one off but maybe im a tight nit and would maybe fold  a lot of rivers. There lead on turn is pretty strong! Maybe not flush tho would they check raise that flop with fush draw. mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

I just dont know I play bad!!

[deanp27]

i"d call here

[shozboy1]

I"d probably feel we are behind by the time the turn comes and he bets alittle more than 1/2 pot. However, you still have top pair with a big draw. He could easily have a set of 44"s or 2 pair here. I dont think there"s any hands in his range here that fit with this line, that you currently beat.
However, given we know he"s strong, if we hit our river, we could easily get all his stack so have nice implied odds here.

Therefore I"d call and fold to a strong river bet if we miss. Nitty, I know, but if you raise the turn, he could easily shove, and are probably compelled to call but probably not loving that spot.

[cincicrappykid]

shove u *****

[shozboy1]

dont see the value in shoving here to be honest

[noble1]

not to sure about flatting the check raise tbh with ten kicker , no reads as such , its a meh moment and i"d fold mostly till i have a better feel for villain..
Flop - pretty much all we are beating is a FD and with u holding the ace diamond i"d probably put villain on better ace.2 pair or a set 44 maybe JJ
Turn - his lead says set or 2 pair to me , against both ranges and the odds villain gives u then u just have enough equity to call for it to be profitable looking to hit diamond [all but the 4 obv] or your gut straight.. fold to bet on river if u miss...

my guess he has 44 . villain check raises ace 2suit flop then leads turn equals no fold equity if u rr imho [they dont fold very often playing this line] @50nl ..

if we had reads then maybe call turn and look to steal on river but at 50nl u gotta have a bloomin good read that villain is capable to fold.. not often at this buy in


edit - personally i"d check flop [no cbet]

[cincicrappykid]

wow lots of drivel... alin

[noble1]

wow lots of drivel... alin

bad analysis with no reasons why imho

[AMRN]

hmmmm interesting that so many advocate flat calling the turn bet, with a view to folding the river if missed. I think this would be an awful play - it"s a spewy call with no implied odds!!  To make our flush, the board would need to show 4 diamonds - if he has set or 2 pair, it"s an easy river fold for him - ie we don"t get paid off for hitting our draw.

So, IMO, flat calling the turn is bad, folding is too nitty - so it has to be a raise, right?

[noble1]

something brian townsend wrote once that i mostly agree with

Poker in all forms is a simple math game. You have a hand and your opponents have a range of hands. You then make a decision based on their range versus your holding as to whether to call, fold, or raise. You determine this by looking at the equity, or how often you win the hand, against the size of the pot to determine your best action. In no-limit hold"em, when facing a pot-size bet on the turn, generally if you have greater than 50 percent equity in the pot, you should raise. If your equity is between 33 percent and 49 percent, and no fold equity exists, you should call. If your equity is less than 33 percent and no implied odds exist, you should fold. This is a simplistic model, but a good place to start when learning beginning range calculations.

so going by this - fold flop [u dont ] turn call  - although u have a very slight positive equity against sets and 2 pairs,i cannot see how we could conjure up some FE if u rr AMRN as being the optimal line of play..

[LongshanksED]

Villian appears to to never be folding on the turn. Maybe if a 4th diamond hits or a Q hits the river, he may fold to your bet.

Your getting odds to carry on and if you don"t hit you"ve only lost the minimum and if you hit then your winning the pot at least which before your turn call is $20 approx

costing you 8 to win 20 at the moment. You have 4 queens and 8 diamonds (not counting q twice) = 12 outs is approx 25% to hit which is 3/1 so a call is feasible as your getting around 2.5/1 This is all in my head of course. I"m not using stove or odds calculators!

Of course you can"t discount AA or KK no
matter how unlikely

[shozboy1]

I couldn"t see the suits on your original post. I thought you had A10s. With A10o, i guess the implied odds are no longer huge as I"d suggested. But at this level players will often pay you off with sets/2pair even if your flush hits on a 4 suited board.

Noble, the link to this article would be good if you"ve got it.

As prev, I dont see the value in raising. He"s not going anywhere, and you have all your money in on a draw with 1 card to come.

[LongshanksED]

Unlikely but villian could have turned the flush a well!

Unlikely following betting pattern but you never know