Odds help please.

[zzBlizzardzz]

Let me set the scene a little. I was tilted a bit at a tournament yesterday. I had J8 in the Big Blind and pretty much felt I was being run over a bit. Anyway, the flop comes J-9-3 Rainbow. I bet out a pretty signifigant part of my stack to cut off any draw hands. I get re-raised by someone who could have been doing it with a wide range of hands. So, being a bit frustrated I push all in. I get a call, they flip over J-9, showing 2 pair. I flip over my J8 and wait for the turn and river so I can get outta here, Turn 8, River 8..Full House baby, holy crap, is this the worst bad beat in history, and what are the odds of it happening. I have been told I was 0.0276% to win after the flop. Is this right and what exactly are the odds on it??? Thanks guys, Im sure Ill get a load of answers and maybe a bit of abuse...hey, you give them and you take them...thats poker baby..

[Jon MW]

You were about 5% to win after the flop I think.

I suspect the person who put you at worse than that failed to see that as well as the runner runner house, there were different runner runner straights that you could have made

EDIT not that you would ever be as bad they said anyway

[Chipaccrual]

You are about 3.5% to win the pot on that flop.

Basically, you needed to hit 88 for the fullhouse, or QT, T7 for the straight.

You are about 3% to split the pot as AA, KK, QQ, TT, 33 are all good for you in this spot.

[evilpie]

You are about 3.5% to win the pot on that flop.

Basically, you needed to hit 88 for the fullhouse, or QT, T7 for the straight.

You are about 3% to split the pot as AA, KK, QQ, TT, 33 are all good for you in this spot.

You missed J 9 for another split.

Please get it right.

[MintTrav]

Your hand reminds me of Pat O"Callaghan"s famous one in the APAT European Team Championship
A5 v AK. Flop AKx. At which point Pat apologised in advance "Sorry about this" - Turn 5 River 5.

At 3.5%, it"s not so rare. What you needed was for someone else to show a folded 8, which would mean you have to hit 2 cards out of 2, instead of 2 out of 3, reducing your chances of winning to 0.1%, the worst beat possible, though there are still some chances of a split - which is exactly the beat I put on Raggy Maggie in a home game - A7 v AK. Flop AKx. Folded 72 shown. Turn 7 River 7. Never in doubt.

[Chipaccrual]

You are about 3.5% to win the pot on that flop.

Basically, you needed to hit 88 for the fullhouse, or QT, T7 for the straight.

You are about 3% to split the pot as AA, KK, QQ, TT, 33 are all good for you in this spot.

You missed J 9 for another split.

Please get it right.

You are quite right, and that is why you play poker, and I count chips of people playing poker.  

[evilpie]

Your hand reminds me of Pat O"Callaghan"s famous one in the APAT European Team Championship
A5 v AK. Flop AKx. At which point Pat apologised in advance "Sorry about this" - Turn 5 River 5.

At 3.5%, it"s not so rare. What you needed was for someone else to show a folded 8, which would mean you have to hit 2 cards out of 2, instead of 2 out of 3, reducing your chances of winning to 0.1%, the worst beat possible, though there are still some chances of a split - which is exactly the beat I put on Raggy Maggie in a home game - A7 v AK. Flop AKx. Folded 72 shown. Turn 7 River 7. Never in doubt.

Removing one of the 8"s wouldn"t actually make that much difference. There"s still plenty of straight combos that can get there if you take all of the 8"s out.

For the worst possible beat see the following:

ah kh  vs  

Board  

th

Requires 2 specific cards and only those 2 exact cards. This can only occur 1 time out of the 990 possible combinations of cards and is a 0.1% shot.

[baldaceguy]

I remember this in a wsop event a few years ago   ac kh v all in board ad ks kd ouch

[SirPercival]

Your hand reminds me of Pat O"Callaghan"s famous one in the APAT European Team Championship
A5 v AK. Flop AKx. At which point Pat apologised in advance "Sorry about this" - Turn 5 River 5.

At 3.5%, it"s not so rare. What you needed was for someone else to show a folded 8, which would mean you have to hit 2 cards out of 2, instead of 2 out of 3, reducing your chances of winning to 0.1%, the worst beat possible, though there are still some chances of a split - which is exactly the beat I put on Raggy Maggie in a home game - A7 v AK. Flop AKx. Folded 72 shown. Turn 7 River 7. Never in doubt.

oh the memories....