i didnt post this to suggest the situations were comparable , i hoped that it would point out that being able to hand read at any level is a big advantage..[as per video a 2+2er std tag over calls in sb and then check raises rainbow flop - 663 trying to rep what ?]
Fair enough and thanks I enjoyed the vid and admit, I did"nt pick up on the point you were making.
You point out that going all in on the flop is not good , i"m not to sure why u get the impression that any1 in the thread advocates pushing the flop?
This is just plain pedantic, I did"nt say a flop ai was suggested but, maybe the sentence reads better this way.....
There is a contradiction though, if we raise ai the flop, or turn as suggested..
Also, in the op. Mikey says.....
Flop is J 9 3 rainbow, the blinds check and villain raises to $5.75, I think about re popping but just call, Again we can be pedantic and say, thats not suggesting an ai raise, but can we ever fold if we do raise the flop? imho raise folding is total spew.
The turn yes , but based on if mikey thinks villain will call with worse...
You mention snapper in your bullet points but we do protect against the unlikely outdraw.
if there is a turn all in raise .. In mikeys situation villain overbets the turn so there is no need to protect he has bet it for us , mikey would have the option to protect if villain checked to him ..
Mikey the turn all in is high variance as snapper points out if your reads on villain hand ranges are way off the mark , in this situation the board texture [along with your reads of villain betting habits] gives him such a larger range of hands and bluffs that u are beating [plus a pot size of $28.50 on the turn] that if u go all in [approx $60] villain has to have hands that beat u approx 33%+ of the time in his range for the all in to be unprofitable , because very rarely does a 25c/50c player properly balance then especially against this villain would i think that his 2 barreling oop range can be/is easily 70%+ total bol##cks that u are beating .. I hope u see the merits of calling the turn as well as thinking that the shove was optimal...
I don"t suggest betting/raising for protection, in fact, I don"t suggest betting/raising at all. I make the point that there is potential protection benefit to the betting/raising option.
On the turn, we are very much in a "way ahead way behind scenario", the sole reasoning for us getting here in a big pot with one pair has been based on a read that the villain is "overly aggressive". His range includes....
hands that crush us, overpair, two pair, trips, boats,
Hands we crush, tpwk, second pair, random small pp"s that he"s overvalued.
Total air
There is absolutely no reason to think villain will slow down, and from my experience, he"s more likely to slow down when he has a hand and will continue to fire with his air. Raising will dilute his range by folding out the air hands and possibly some weak made hands and this is not good for us. So, if we flat the turn $15 the pot is $43.50 and we have $44.75 behind, this gives the villain a fold equity carrot and any river bet will pot commit his weaker hands. The monies are all going in but versus his turn betting range not his turn bet call range.
