opinions on this hand please

[BOINGBLITZ]

Playing in the £100 event at Walsall on Monday night, I reached the Final Table and we were down to 9 players when this happened......

I am in BB with a stack of 150k with ave at about 180k I think, blinds at 5k/10k/1k ante.

   UTG - a decent player flat calls with only 37k behind him. A guy with 57k shoves all-in and its folded around to the chip-leader in the SB who shoves his monster 850k stack all-in.

Me in the BB with J-J

Do you pass ??

[Paulie_D]

I can"t see passing here.

You have a "decent" player who is down to less than 5BB and limps...WTF? No decent player is letting their stack get down that far (unless there is some information you haven"t given us). I have to assume he"s getting his money in too.

The MP shove for 6BB is standard and the SB"s overshove looks like an isolation bet.

I"m getting it in here with an excellent chance that they have each others outs (assuming overcards) and a pretty good chance at a near treble up.

If I find I"m crushed...so be it, but I suspect, at worst, you have the second best hand out there and you are ahead of the CL"s range.

[deanp27]

i hate folding but unless CL is a maniac i may ladddderrrrrrr here

[AJDUK]

Need more info on the monster stack guy. Has he done anything like this before and what with?

With no info at all then I"m folding and banking the info. He"s on your right which is great....

[BOINGBLITZ]

Had no info on monster stack......FT had only just begun

[Paulie_D]

You haven"t mentioned whether we are in the money here but I can"t see, in either case (in or out) that folding here is anything other than -EV.

We"re here to win it and with our stack in relation to the blinds, are we likely to see better than JJ any time soon with this sort of stack-increasing potential?

I think not.

[BOINGBLITZ]

We are ALL in the money £320 for 9th, £360 8th, £410 7th.

[AMRN]

I think that generally the "shove to isolate" range of the big stack is likely to contain a heck of a lot of hands that JJ beats, and if he has AK/AQ, he may well be short of outs given the other action. I would call, and expect to at least be playing for a significant side pot, if not the whole pot.

[mousebob]

I"m folding  
You"re behind to some imo & will watch 1/2 get KO"d.
Ladder up & outplay them later!

[TheSnapper]

Big stacks move is in the face of multiple action and knowing he has to show his cards. Unless he"s totally clueless, his range is strong enough that we are flipping at best.

Given that there is certainly some ICM bubble factor at play (if we had all stacks and payouts we could be more precise) this is a clear fold.

[AMRN]

Big stacks move is in the face of multiple action and knowing he has to show his cards. Unless he"s totally clueless, his range is strong enough that we are flipping at best.

I would suspect that his isolating range would be as wide as 77, 88, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ..... 10 hands of which we crush 4, are crushed by 3, split with 1, and ahead of 2 (may be well ahead if outs are missing).  

Folding for the ladder is ok, but calling with a view to taking a mahoosive pot and setting up for first place also has to be ok..?  Surely there"s enough of his range that we are in good shape against, even if it is potentially only for the (large) side pot.

[AJDUK]

I think that generally the "shove to isolate" range of the big stack is likely to contain a heck of a lot of hands that JJ beats, and if he has AK/AQ, he may well be short of outs given the other action. I would call, and expect to at least be playing for a significant side pot, if not the whole pot.

You are probably right - but "probably" is my problem here. Without any info it"s purely speculation and to me it"s a fold, bank the info, and try to get my money in first if poss. There"s plenty of times I"ve been told at a new table that I wouldn"t have made that call if I"d seen the guy play previously. Too late when I"m walking out the door!

Big stacks move is in the face of multiple action and knowing he has to show his cards. Unless he"s totally clueless, his range is strong enough that we are flipping at best.

Might see 88 99 TT too, but I agree with the point that he"d have to be clueless to show down anything other than a decent hand.

I expect you to tell us you folded Brian.

[BOINGBLITZ]

My take on it was this.

The UTG limper HAS to have a monster, THAT can be the only reason he didn"t move all-in. And he is OBVIOUSLY calling.

The other all-in move is standard and I am probably ahead of him so against those two, I am prepared to call.

When the big-stack shoves, he either has a medium pair or a monster. Either way, I am in a dilemna as he can bust me.
If he busts all 3 of us, then I would finish 7th as I have more chips at the start of the hand. If I pass, I can ladder and pick a better spot to get my chips in.

 I feel that if I call, I have little chance of a favourable outcome as unless the board is 10-high, I am likely behind.

Despite my lack of history against this big-stack, I decide that he ISN"T weak and that I will find a better spot.... and I pass.

The outcome of the hand follows next.

[BOINGBLITZ]

The UTG limper......FOLDS !!!......he had A-J and left himself with just 37k !!

The short-stack shows A-10 and the monster stack, who I folded J-J to had..........Q-Q.

Board came K-7-6-4-Q and so instead of being out in 8th, I lived to fight another day.

I got down to 5-handed where we did a deal that gave us all £2k and we then played for the remaining £2090.

With 4 left I re-shoved into the (still) big-stack with........wait for it.......J-J and he called with A-2.......Flop is 2-A-4 and so J-J knocks me out anyway !!
 Consolation was the deal as 4th wouldv"e paid £1260. I thought it was a massive error on the part of the guy who brokered it as he was chip-leader and never once mentioned doing a deal that related to chip-counts.

 Appreciate the feedback guys, as always.  

[Mikeyboy9361]

My take on that was the limper would be disguising a monster, and had to ship his remaining 37K. Once the CL pushes, I would have thought about calling and then folded, as on the final table I like to get my chips in on my terms, and also I am about to ladder up 2 positions and still have a playable stack.