AK sooooooooted - on the bubble

[deanp27]

ah but she may be excited that she has a good hand - granted, that doesn"t automatically translate to her having aces though does it. For example you could see me across the table genuinely excited to see you 3bet me instantly putting my chips in to find i have pocket .

my point is that she may think that JJ/QQ etc is an exciting prospect. You"d have to put her on exactly aces to fold and if you can tell me your secret tell finding abilities that enable you to identify specific hands i"d be grateful.

what range do you now put her on Dan?

remember we have one ace and one king and this is a six max tournament

[Marty719]

What?!?! 6max!! How r our chips not in yet?

[mousebob]

Mine are !!

[George2Loose]

Dan would u fold Queens if you picked up the same read? Or even Kings?

[kinboshi]

Dan would u fold Queens if you picked up the same read? Or even Kings?

Kings, doubt it.

Queens, maybe. 

AK-soooted, maybe.

Jacks, yes.

AQ, yes.

[WYoung83]

 It wasnt the

"ok im probably behind, but im all in" uber  groannnnnnnnnnnn and then ship it tell?? iv seen this lots when some idiot has aces.

[kinboshi]

It wasnt the

"ok im probably behind, but im all in" uber  groannnnnnnnnnnn and then ship it tell?? iv seen this lots when some idiot has aces.

No, it was infinitely more subtle - and yet seemed to speak volumes.

[noble1]

Dan u say in your post that your having success stealing and your feeling comfortable [so u should with 56bb"s ]
Did u consider keeping the bubble alive as an alternative? The way u describe chip counts u are joint table chip leader yes? The best way to use your stack is not by doubling up the shorties or getting into pre/post flop all in battles with stacks which can decimate your stack to 20bb [especially when they are on your left]
IMO u were already playing a decent optimal game from what u say, after all i"d say that the primary goal/obligation of the big stack is to not pump up the small stacks, u can pick out far better situations. Let the others who are more desperate battle it out with the shorties, the increasing blinds will ensure this.. Your strategy beforehand by picking your spots was the best choice by far imho given the stack/blind sizes...

to quote gigabet on stack theory -

But the real question is, how do you recognize when you can get on the negative side of the situation and know that if you lose that individual hand, your stack will still be able to contend with the fields? Understanding that every situation is one long stream of events, and the results of any single hand mean nothing in the long run isn't enough.

There will be situations where math tells you to push with any two cards to pick up the pot(preflop, of course), however, if you are using my model, you will see that because the "line" is relatively stable, and your stack hovers above the line, than taking down that pot is very nearly always wrong. This is working on the opposite side of the coin, and recognizing when +ev situations should actually be avoided, because it would be more positive to wait until either the line moves, or your stack moves closer to the line.

Dan your whole strategy changes with this 1 gamble, the gain imo changes nothing , the loss totally changes your strat.

[Marty719]

Its 6max and it is live.  Folding is the worst of the 3 options pre.  If you wana be a nit and focus on stack preservation then flat the 9k, but...its 6m, on the bubble, and we have AKs.  We have stated we are not interested in a min-cash - winning this hand pretty much locks up our target cash and puts us in the best situation to tid.  In 6m, people can think 10"s are the nuts!

I genuinely do not understand how 3b/get it in can"t be the best option!  If effective stacks were deeper then things change, but she has just over 30x...

[noble1]

ty for calling me a nit lmao .. i"m not folding AK because i"m a nit , i"m folding because 2 tight players are in the pot already also i can continue to abuse the bubble and would try to manipulate the stack sizes [and the player tendencies] in my favour.. Hence the saying ""we are the dam"" and chips flow clockwise... Shorties on our left , larger stacks on our right , perfect set up to take advantage of... Get your chips in if the table is full of tough players and its hard to gain chips but if there are any trying to survive the bubble then i"d use those 53bb"s with a different strategy, oh its not different, Dan was comfortably doing that beforehand..

In fact blow it , ignore reads , ignore bubble play and stack sizes just view every situation with AKs as +ev and get your chips in, just play the hand and put a bra on your head [and dont forget your lucky pants] Whoever coined the term ""play for the win"" should be knighted imho as its the best excuse ever for brilliant play

[Marty719]

nit itt

Due to the bubble we actually have extra f/e which makes 3b"n even more profitable.

I would LOVE to know wat ur 3b range is in this spot!  Sigh whoever coined the phrase "its only ace high."

[ ] happy with a min cash

• want to put ourselves in a good spot to tid
  

[kinboshi]

Its 6max and it is live.  Folding is the worst of the 3 options pre.  If you wana be a nit and focus on stack preservation then flat the 9k, but...its 6m, on the bubble, and we have AKs.  We have stated we are not interested in a min-cash - winning this hand pretty much locks up our target cash and puts us in the best situation to tid.  In 6m, people can think 10"s are the nuts!

Agreed.  But this is a very player dependent situation.  In fact, with a different player I wouldn"t have thought too long at all about calling the shove. 

In this case:

• Is she bluffing?  I"d say there"s an almost 0% chance of that being the case in this instance.


• Is she making this move, in this situation, with anything less than QQ, KK or AA?  I don"t think so (maybe AK...)


• So does she ever turn over TT or JJ here?  I"d say no.

I genuinely do not understand how 3b/get it in can"t be the best option!  If effective stacks were deeper then things change, but she has just over 30x...

I thought I was in a good spot until she shoved.  My plan was to call a shove, but like I said, my reads told to me reassess. 

I"d have loved to have "known" what the tells were telling me before I re-raised her, but they were only shown when it was back to her and she made the all-in move and then after that when I sat there and had a think.

If I know 100% she has QQ, then I"m calling.  But from what I now "know", that"s right at the bottom of her range - and more unlikely than KK or AA.


I"ve only ever made "big" decisions like this a handful of times in tournaments.  The consensus seems to be that I shouldn"t look at a particular hand in isolation, and against a lot of people a lot of the time, my AK is good here or I"m racing.

[Mikeyboy9361]

So do we take it that you laid it down.  

[kinboshi]

[noble1]

ok u seem to me to want to dismiss reads,stacks,tempo and the game flow at the time and get jiggy with AKs but then fold to a 4bet?
I dont doubt your reads on this player pre were pretty much spot on, if you suspect someone to folding AQ or medium pairs to a active 3bettor then when they are 30bb effective i"d anticipate them to tighten up before raising again with u behind to act. Now in your situation the a 20bb limper uttg1 is raised by Mrs Tight [which to me narrows her range moreso than if it had been a open raise]
So what range do we put her on? TT JJ QQ KK AA AK AQ ?? agree/disagree ??
There is 18300 in the pot and the action is on u , if u choose to 3bet u think she would fold TT JJ AQ [24combo"s] and her 4bet range is QQ KK AK [21 combo"s]
AdKd - 42% equity
QQ+,AcKc,AhKh,AsKs,AcKh,AcKs,AhKc,AhKs,AsKc,AsKh - 58.096%

So why Dan if u had thought pre-flop how she reacts with her range before u acted, why risk 27000 [ish as u say] to win 18000 she is only folding to a 3bet 55% of the time , hence the ""theres loads of Fold equity malarkey"" , there is not enough FE to make this profitable... Something when especially live that u could of figured out beforehand imho...

edit - also it gets interesting if u thought about what range the limper has given your read preflop as possibly strong , then what did u plan to do after 3betting if the limper pushed and Mrs Tight called into your thinking preflop...