you really need to look at pace.IMO after 25 years of betting on horses - pace is everything.The weight"s mean very little bar going up in grade which is important.Going up in grade though is all about pace.Each horse is handicapped by thinking time out of the gates and pack instinct and in most cases horses cant be trained to go against what they do in the wild.Most tracks are ran at a different speeds and most horses can run fast times if given the opportunity.The opportunity isn"t there often and thats our job to find out when.
what I do is :-
make sure the pace suits the horse and is in a grade it can win at.
make sure the horse suits the track.
make sure the horse likes the going.
on turf time the first race to get a going figure.
can the jockey pull it off?
is the trainer doing ok ?
I use times of each track for stiffness and speed.Many horses cant run at 45hph at Goodwood for instance but run well at wolves going 33ph.Its all in the form.
yes speed is important, of course we want to back the fastest horse... Andrew Beyer is credited for pioneering the approach of speed to horse betting in the usa... the problem we have in the uk is that to accurately assess speed/pace is that you need sectional timing, trying to base figures on just the raw overall finishing time is flawed..
only basing pace/speed to a finish time does not take into account the time the horse ran on the outside of the track, which is the longest distance around, or was boxed in or was blocked by other horses during the first 2furlongs of the race but then overcame these problems and still came in fourth... what if a horse gains a easy lead but stronger horses behind get blocked by weaker horses.. u only get the answers by watching the races, relying on some lone race analyst who has to write up every race on the day is not the best approach.. the speed/pace figures start to go squee whiff don"t u think? add other factors such as wind direction not being available, unless of course u are there or can ring up a buddy at the track to let u know... and so on and so on....
the betting markets ever since Beyer made public his approach have factored this into there odds, likewise draw bias when punters became more aware of it, the bookies incorporated it into the odds....
as a horse race bettor we have to figure out the true odds of a horse and identity horses that are undervalued in the posted odds, so the only way to win money is to predict the outcome better than the odds makers [who use all the methods like speed ratings etc etc] and better than most of the betting public...
the variables can vary from a horse's past performance (wins vs. losses), to its pedigree, its class, its adjusted speed in previous races, its temperament, its breeder, its trainer, the track conditions, the weather and the mix of other horses in the field, all factored in by the odds compilers... the one edge we still have is that we can watch and re-watch any race we choose, looking out for the factors that have been missed, hmmm hard study, something which a lot of punters are not prepared to do....
the posted odds usually overestimate a horses chances of winning, which results in the payout odds being less than the true odds against a horse winning. by overestimating every horses chance of winning, the bookie underpays the bettor for a win, dont play into there hands by assessing races using methods they have factored in, simples....
