Epsom is nearly here, the Oaks and the Derby look like they met produce some useful sorts this year.. Camelot is a obvious possible but the price isn"t very tempting .. Could Bonfire win it? it looks like it was decent Dante this year, will an extra 2furlongs suit though being a son of Manduro?, [are you backing it Achim?] considering this was his debut run Bonfire could be a lot closer ability wise to Camelot than what the market suggests.. Bonfire to my eye looks like a top 10f performer but the extra 2furlongs maybe just stretching it so from a value angle i"ve had a wee sized win bet on Parish Hall, Bolger has PH in the Irish 2000 Guineas, basically following the same prep routine as he did with New Approach, 21+ is a good win punt on betfair imho and a place bet as well
Astrology is well worth a place bet, he moved well despite the bog at Chester so to my eye he will handle quicker ground.. As a 2year old he was entered in the Futurity Stakes and moved better than all the rest [Parish Hall included] but when McCabe asked him to pick up his tail waved around and he swerved left to the rail finishing up 3rd.. Astrology"s last race as a 2year old, O"Brien entered him in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket and again he showed similar traits swerving to the rail...I"d put that down to the big wide open space of Newmarket and the Curragh and greenness, none of that was shown at Chester on his seasonal re-appearance in the Dee Stakes, Epsom"s tight turns and far less open track will suit him so i"ve had a small win bet and had a bit bigger place bet
so without the waffle...
Epsom Derby 2/6/2012
Astrology - win and place
Parish Hall - win and a place shame, this horse is seriously good
Some great racing at Epsom is approaching and i"m still backing Astrology for the Derby
The Oaks looks as if its between the Fugue, Maybe and Kissed, the Fugue is obvious and has been priced up about right, Maybe the same,
Kissed on the other hand at best price 11"s on betfair is more of a betting proposition imho, only raced on soft so going questions to answer but looking at how she moves then the better going met/will bring about more improvement, her run in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan was impressive, both visually and by the stopwatch over the last 3furlongs winning by over eight lengths with hardly any pushing, three parts sister to Pour Moi [dam - Gwynn] adds a bit optimism that she"ll handle good to firm.. Build wise like Pour Moi she has that athletic horse look which ticks the box could she handle Epsom, so i"m having nibbles on betfair as she drifts currently
Of the rest -
Vow - long striding, still running green, deep chested suggests 1m4f no problem but maybe will prove to be better over further.. With that long stride plus how she went wide at the bend at Lingfield lto is what puts me off her, not only is the price off putting but how on earth will she handle running downhill around Tattenham Corner plus the camber too is rather stretching chancing odds of 5to6/1..
Outsiders -
Shirocco Star - obvious, sticks out like a sore thumb and the market has reacted, still worth a small dabble though..
Betterbetterbetter - not so obvious, 2nd to Good Morning Star in the bog at Chester who will win again if she ever gets conditions like that again so Betterbetterbetter wasn"t disgraced, she looked the winner coming into the home straight, a touch of the idles plus the soft ground got her beaten narrowly.. She gave the impression to me that better ground will suit and is worth a each way punt @33/40/1+ and a place bet on betfair.....