Some of my 2000 Guineas ante post picks have fallen by the wayside just leaving George Vancouver.. 1000 Guineas i"m only interested in the Sir HC filly
Hot Snap, i"m happy with the 5/1 i got, that"s looking value to me...
Van der Neer is my only other pick for the 2000G, i"ve got on at 25/1, his price has since been cut to 20"s in general.....
Reasons to oppose the front 2 in the 2000G [apart from the obvious cos of the short prices about the pair
]
Dawn Approach He has the right blend of speed and stamina for this race with a dosage of 1.67 and a CD of 0.38.. He was the Champion 2 year old last season and never got beat, so i should be lumping on right? hmmm the odds are rather skinny
Plus if you look at the records of how the 2 year old champions fared as 3 year olds it makes 7/4 15/8 look off putting, 14 of the last 25 2yo champs failed to win in group1 company over a mile plus, if you look even deeper into the stats the early debut and the amount of runs as a juvenile Dawn Approach had count as negatives against him [plus did i mention the short odds
and he"s no Frankel imho]
In the Dewhurst he was nearly two lengths behind his pacemaker Leitir Mor and Manning had to get rowing before he picked up, on soft"ish going that day thats ok but if he repeats that on quicker ground [plus 1st race of the season] i can see him getting beat by one or two...
Quite rightly he is the favourite to win but he isn"t for me at the odds.....
ToronadoUnbeaten, Mr Hughes is saying all the right things and so the media band wagon gets rolling.. What have i seen? there"s no doubting he"s group class, but group 1 class over a mile? hmmm from what i gather from his past form is that up to now he hasn"t beaten any real decent horse yet, in the two pattern class races he won as a 2yo the horses he beat they went on to run 30 times, not one of them has won a race.. hmmmm 2/1
Add in the stats for Craven winners, only 1 has gone on to win the 2000G out of the last 21 to try that particular double..
Ok ok the media pundits point out how impressive he was in winning the Craven, yes it was a quick time BUT the one advantage i had of being there to see it rather than watch it on the TV is that i know it was bloody windy that day, Toronado just about had a tail wind which aided his front running tactics [possibly
] , in fact that day there was 4 front running winners which kind of makes me think that the tail wind was definitely helping that day, PLUS Soviet Rock ran the 2nd fastest 10f ever at Newmarket that day [from the front].. So if anyone mentions what a great speed rating Toronado produced that day, please be sure to ask them what adjustments they made for the wind
Is he on the likely winner list? of course he is, BUT the odds are way to short
plus his dosage index is 0.89 which suggests the Derby the better target of the 2 classics.. In recent times the DI for the 2000G winners has been a avg of 1.73 although the last 2 Frankel and Camelot were both 0.94, is there any logic to believe Toronado is in that sphere of ability?
Any outsiders?Only 2 realistic ones imho - George Vancouver and Van Der Neer
The DI for this years 2000G ranges from 0.89 Toronado to 2.43 Glory Awaits @ 200/1 , the sweet spot from a DI point of view plus what form there is to go by points at GV and VdN as being the most likely dangers to the front 2 in the betting..
GV can possibly make up 3.5 lengths on Dawn Approach on quicker ground, is action suggests it, his subsequent race in the breeders cup backs that up.. Worth chancing at the prices each way imo...
VdN hasn"t done anything wrong, ran a good race in the racing post trophy on unsuitable ground [for him] and backed that up with a good run lto at Lingfield, a good prep 28 days before the 2000G and suitable time to recover [oh thats another negative for Toronado, only 16 days off between races]
so VdN is a tasty each way punt as well imho.....
possible 1234 - [take your pick from these
]
1 - Dawn Approach
2 - George Vancouver
3 - Van der Neer
4 - Toronada
Mars could be anything but has had just the one race, O"Brien has never prepped any of previous 2000G winners this way so maybe eyeing this more as a prep for the Derby..
Cristoforo Colombo hasn"t raced beyond 6f, his pedigree says he will stay but why did O"Brien not run him over 7f last year if he had the Guineas in mind for him?
Garswood looks like he"ll make a better sprinter than a miler, it won"t surprise me if he turns up at Royal Ascot with an entry in the Jubilee Stakes.
Leitir Mor is surely just a pace maker, strange things happen though
Kyllachy Rise is yet to win, what is Sir HC thinking? the owner wants a day out is my guess...
