Cheltenham 13th March
1:30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle
Kalkir @20/1 1point win
Petite Parisienne @9/1 1point win
Hargam @6/1 2point win
Top Notch @7/1 2point win
2.05 - County Handicap
Orgilgo Bay @33/1 1point win
Roman Flight @50/1 1point win
Princely Conn @10/1 2point win
Sort It Out @12/1 2point win
3.20 - Gold Cup
http://www.apat.com/forum/index.php?topic=6616.msg239700#msg239700Road To Riches @10/1 2point win
Carlingford Lough @10/1 1point win
my simple logic for the Gold Cup - The horse has to have won a grade 1 chase at Kempton, Cheltenham or Leopardstown. Any older than 10+ and your out, defending ex-champions out, Silviniaco Conti is out [to short plus his course form] and sift through prize money/collateral form etc etc that they have won at those three courses.
That leaves -
Silviniaco Conti 9yo 114k 113k [2x King Georges at Kempton] skinny odds based on course form and
he"s outLord Windermere 9yo 327k 85k [1x Gold Cup 1xRSA Chase] defending champ, in the Gold Cup's history only
seven horses have won more than once since the Gold Cup chase, as we now know it, was introduced in 1924.
They are - Easter Hero 1929/30 , Golden Miller 1932/33/34/35/36 , Cottage Rake 1948/49/50 , Arkle 1964/65/66 , L"Escargot 1970/71 , Best Mate 2002/03/04 , Kauto Star 2007/09 the only horse to ever regain the Gold Cup.
at this moment in time i"d have to be bonkers to think Lord Windermere is as good as that group, so based on him being the defending champ,
he"s outBobs Worth 10yo 313k 75k [1x Gold Cup 1x Lexus] trying to regain the Gold Cup, ten years old and
he"s outCarlingford Lough 9yo 66k [1x Irish Hennessy Gold Cup] won lto McCoy riding a plus. Jodami and Imperial Call in 93 and 96 are the last two to have won both the GC and the Hen in the same year which isn"t a great record but in terms of the open nature to this years GC then it gives him a lively chance imho.
Road To Riches 8yo 75k [1x Lexus] 5 out of the last 9 Gold Cup winners have contested the Lexus Chase, since winning the Galway Plate he"s improved tons. He"s won two grade ones in softer than ideal conditions, he"s best on good ground imo which makes it the more impressive what he"s done this season.
Boston Bob is the only other grade one winner at Aintree and Punchestown but he"s ten years old, Cool Dawn back in 98 was the last 10yo to win. If the likes of Denman and Kauto Star failed to win the GC at 10yo+ then i"d think you"d be fairly safe putting a line through Bob
Of the rest - Coneygree after he won the Denman Chase at Newbury last month has been described by Phil Smith the head of handicapping as putting in the best performance at 3m by a novice since Gloria Victis. ? ? ? ? ? thats enough question marks
Phil Smith goes on to rate Coneygree 5lbs better as a novice than what Denman did in the RSA in 07.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=764676#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_formhe beat Houblon Des Obeaux who is rated 161 over the sticks?? really?? i shall cut off my left testicle with blunt scissors if Coneygree is on par with Denman as a novice [please peruse
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=633710#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form]
i won"t and don"t want to start on about Many Clouds and Djakadam and there current odds which are a joke..
good luck today everyone.
