Call or Fold with a draw?

[AMRN]

I was playing a tournament last night that I regretted buying in to... was on a promise, but the promise only arrived after I bought in - so had played fast and loose early on, and gambled ridiculously, and now found myself with a decent stack.  This was a $5 (2R1A) with 4500 runners, and I was 100th/1400 - 675 paid, although was only really interested in the money for the last 10. Average stack was around 25k, and I had 44k.

That said, having built a stack, I was now taking a bit more seriously, and with the cricket having started on TV, was happy to to take the late night and play properly..... then this hand happened.

Hand in question...

harbour 2000 was playing top 5% only - VP/PFR = 6/4 over 150 hands. Only hand he has open raised with so far was KK.
portbou = 22/14. Had him tagged as straight forward - folds when he misses flop, but bets fast when he hits.

When hardbour2000 opens for 3x here, I can only put him on TT+/AK. When portbou flats, I see a value opportunity and implied odds for suited connectors, but know I can"t raise as harbour won"t be folding... so elect to call (gambling fish again)

PokerStars - $5+$0.50|400/800 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

lewieboi (UTG+1): 35,157.00
GREGVANAIRE (MP): 15,295.00
harbour2000 (MP+1): 24,624.00
PORTBOU (LP): 27,141.00
shinbunshi (CO): 8,247.00
Harrierz (BTN): 44,467.00
sc_23 (SB): 48,212.00
larryhouse (BB): 50,365.00
cbwood1 (UTG): 22,711.00

lewieboi posts ante 100.00, GREGVANAIRE posts ante 100.00, harbour2000 posts ante 100.00, PORTBOU posts ante 100.00, shinbunshi posts ante 100.00, Harrierz posts ante 100.00, sc_23 posts ante 100.00, larryhouse posts ante 100.00, cbwood1 posts ante 100.00, sc_23 posts SB 400.00, larryhouse posts BB 800.00

Pre Flop: (2100.00) Harrierz has  

fold, fold, fold, harbour2000 raises to 2,400.00, PORTBOU calls 2,400.00, fold, Harrierz calls 2,400.00, fold, fold

Flop: (9300.00, 3 players)  
harbour2000 bets 22,124.00 and is all-in, fold


So..... call or fold?

[Waz1892]

With your reads on harbour and assuming there are correct, you know you have to hit your draw as he will always have an overpair, I would discount ak with him going all in, as too risky on a pretty connected board.

So I reckon you have 10 outs (4"s, 9"s and 2 5"s) that will win, and a possible backdoor flush. 

You hit and your well chipped up for your target of a top 10 finish, you miss and you still have over 20bb to try again.

You already said you called as a gamble, you got your desired flop...why stop now?

[dwh103]

Firstly, I would say you do not nearly have the correct implied odds given the effective stacks. The pre-flop call alone is 10% of the opener"s stack. Doesn"t sound like you"d be getting free turns, or that the 3rd guy is going to spack off here either - so a pretty bad spot to gamble/speculate - and I love gambling/speculating!

As for the decision, simple pot odds. Pot is laying less than 3/2. A fair assumption that this guy has a big overpair - unless he would put it on the line with AK here - doesn"t seem likely but worth allocating a small "bluff" %.

Against TT+ your equity is around 46% - so the chance of getting a big stack to abuse the upcoming bubble and absorb any later beats is too good to turn down. Obviously including a wild AK bluff improves your equity. Comfortable call for me as played - as Waz suggests, you"ve gambled already and pretty much got what you wanted.

[stoneii]

v an over pair I"d count his 3 x 6"s as outs too - making it 13 outs with backdoor flush draw.  Get it in and if yer wrong go make babies!!!

[TheSnapper]

Versus his range of TT+AK assuming he jams the flop with 100%, you have 57% equity and are a decent favourite to win the hand.

Discounting half of the AK combos still leaves us with 53% and since you have to win several of these flips to make top 10 in these big field tournies, I like a variance embracing call.

[JamieCarra]

Fold pre, Call now

[Swinebag]

well its a deffo fold pre given stack sizes but as you are gambling why not have a punt.

You then flop the earth so folding must be out of the question given your preflop actions

[AMRN]

I called. Of course I called, although I did eat a bit of timebank in the process. Reason for posting was the slating I got in the chatbox for making the call - made we doubt my logic a bit.

I figured him for an overpair, and unless it was 99, I had 13 outs, so around 50% to hit... and the pot odds were around 40%. I think if this had been the Sunday Million I would probably have made a nitty fold to preserve chips...... however considering the logic of the argument in defence of the call, folding in any tournament (so far away from the bubble) would be a bad fold.

I think that seeing an open-shove that was approx twice the size of the pot made my draw look really poor - however the maths were favourable. I don"t think the rest of the table saw it that way though.

Exit soon after when aipf for 20x with 77 v TT

[George2Loose]

This is why nits win all the money.

Tis a fold pre but in realtime doubt I make it

[Santino67]

Generally concur with most of the above. Given that you"ve joined in with the action and flopped about as good as it gets, you really can"t fold in this position with 13 outs and additional back door possibilities. Dangerous hand to go along with in the first place, but we all know the benefits of suited connectors when you hit with them.

Would you play it any differently next time Steve?

[samuel_9]

Fold pre, Call now

have 2 agree

[samuel_9]

v an over pair I"d count his 3 x 6"s as outs too - making it 13 outs with backdoor flush draw.  Get it in and if yer wrong go make babies!!!

are you still making babys at your age stoneii