Cheltenham Festival 2011/2012

[noble1]

Not had a bet now for about 3 month, waiting for the flat season  

don"t blame u nos , but the Cheltenham Festival is looming and i"ve got to warm up for it
i"ve been looking at the trends and seeming as i"ve got my feet up today i"ll post up some of the key pointers that i look at for some ante-post bets and closer to the day when ground conditions are known...

Supreme Novices Hurdle
Experience of large fields is a big plus, the ground if good or faster suits the flat bred which came in handy when i backed Arcalis back in 05 at 25"s [he won at 20/1] Marcel was the hot pot favourite that year, he had never won in a big field, he favoured a bit of cut and he had way to much racing throughout the year, he lost by miles and the bookies thanked [laughing there privates off] all the mugs/tipsters who backed it heavy, so check out lightly raced types, no more than 4 or 5 races that racing season at most.. If the going good to soft or softer forget the flat breds, still look out for lightly raced types who have won in a field of at least 12+ runners, if you see comments in the results as u comb through the form such as ""impressive"" ""shaken up to lead"" ""eased down to win"" ""driven out"" etc then try to find the race on video at sporting life or at the races or the racing post if u have a subscription and check out the horse with your own peepers, u cannot beat good old fashioned hard work when whittling down a shortlist... 5 and 6 year olds have a fantastic record in the Supreme Novice so strike a line through anything younger or older [around 32 of the last 36 supremes have been won by a 5 or 6 year old]
Short list all horses that have a top 3 finish last time out prior to Cheltenham and of course note any irish trained horse lol   , the canny irish have a good recent record, Ebaziyan back in 07 at 40/1 need i say more? only the 2 races prior, 1st lto and a 2nd in big fields in conditions that matched the going at Cheltenham that day [soft], Amaretto Rose was the hot pot going off at 2/1 that day, who the fu#k in there right mind backs a english trained 2/1 shot in a competitive race like this and makes money? Although his form looked good for some reason punters overlooked the fact he was a hold up type [and wasn"t irish ], so my next titbit of info when combing through the form is to favour the handy types [in touch, tracked leaders in previous races] as the Supreme is a fast run race and it pays to be on a horse that can keep up with the pace setters at the very least,[so no worse than mid division types] so if u see held up in the form description one to many times for a Supreme candidate then strike a line through it
Captain Cee Bee was a recent glitch in the record for 5and6 year olds, CB was a 7yo but it was irish and owned by JP McManus and backed heavy from 12"s to 17/2, so no real shock there but by and large 5or6 year olds win it but dont be averse to having a saver if one of JP"s horses gets stuck into or is fancied...
Sausalito Bay way back in 2000 beat Best Mate on good ground [i was on at 16"s ] flat bred, taken from Ian Baldings yard to Noel Meade , 2 outings over hurdles won them both, so in a nutshell do your homework for each race is what i advise....
I hope this helps someone out, sorry for the mish mash writing, i just wrote it quick as things came back to me, my memory gets like that as i get older lol lol
I"ll try to go through the other races as Cheltenham looms up and hopefully as a collective we met pick out some juicy priced winners.....

[jacklevel06]

Maybe we should start a separate, Cheltenham festival thread, noble ?. I"ve been trawling through the form today as well.Would be interesting to hear other peoples views.

[noble1]

Maybe we should start a separate, Cheltenham festival thread, noble ?. I"ve been trawling through the form today as well.Would be interesting to hear other peoples views.

start one up by all means, for now though i"ll post up some pointers to each race that maybe some may benefit from..
upto now i"ve just backed one ante-post, Oscar Whisky for the world hurdle, it will be tough to beat Big Bucks but after Oscar W"s race at Cheltenham on new year day it looked to me as though he has improved... With Henderson having Binocular for the Champion Hurdle, i think Oscar W will be aimed at the World Hurdle as the extra distance looks to be the key.. 2 miles in the champion hurdle against the likes of Binocular, Menorah, Peddlers Cross and Hurricane Fly seems a tall order imho so 3 miles seems the logical choice given the display over 21 furlongs Oscar W gave on new year and if he does enter the upcoming welsh champion hurdle [over 2 miles] then if defeated by Peddlers or Binocular then i"d expect Henderson to aim Whiskey at the world hurdle... Meh i just don"t think [imho] that Oscar Whiskey has the speed to beat Binocular, Menorah, Peddlers Cross or Hurricane Fly, maybe even Overturn would be quicker over 2miles if the ground is on the good side....

Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
a really good chance to find a winner, on the day shortlist all the horses who opens priced 10/1 or less, put a line through the rest, also put a line through the favourite and your shortlist will be mostly down to 3 to 5 horses...
browse through the last 6 runnings -
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=497501&r_date=2010-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=473172&r_date=2009-03-10&popup=yes
Kalahari King and Tartak opened at 11"s
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=447770&r_date=2008-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=422747&r_date=2007-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=398283&r_date=2006-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=366075&r_date=2005-03-15&popup=yes

fine tune the shortlist by favoring horses that finished first or second last time out, french bred and irish bred have a good record which will help in pin pointing a horse from the shortlist also.. look and go back through there hurdle form and favour those with ratings of 142+... favour horses that have had 4 or 5 chase races experience, Tatenen, Noland and Clopf are recent examples that having just the 2or3 chase races prior experience can be a factor against them in this fast paced race [over stiff fences]...
hopefully the above will help in finding the winner

[Chipaccrual]

Grand Crus for the World Hurdle
Ghizao for the Arkle Chase


Oh, and nice thread guys.  

[noble1]

Supreme Novice 2010
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfxF7G6NMJk[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-zHCIvXPsk[/youtube]


Arkle Chase 2010
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rb95QDrGcgA[/youtube]
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY148_CGlb4[/youtube]


see above Leigh you tube code is

[Chipaccrual]

LOL, Noble makes Youtube coding work.  Anything is possible.  

[noble1]

Right on to the next race, a easy usually big most years field handicap, getting a shortlist to a manageable size requires the help of the trends brigade again....

Festival Handicap Chase [William Hill Trophy]

Put a line through any horse carrying 10-13 or more, put a line through any horse carrying less than 10-2.. any horse 11 years or older then put a line through it... last time out wins are a plus... put a line through the favourite, only 2 have won in the last 16 years 2009 and 1994.... irish bred horses have a great recent record also - 8 OF THE LAST 10 RUNNINGS [just doing these pointers would of given Chief Dan George last year]
Race style wise i tend to look for off the pace types for this race,good tactical speed and are capable of tracking the leaders, so when going through the form i look for comments in the previous race descriptions such as ""held up in touch"" ""shaken up"" ""rallied"" , this with a good run or a win is a good pointer, then its a case of looking back through videos just to see for yourself...
Doing the above will give a very short manageable list and hopefully a better chance of selecting the winner in what is usually a 20+ runner race....

the last 10 runnings [no 2001, foot and mouth]
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499095&r_date=2010-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474811&r_date=2009-03-10&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449560&r_date=2008-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424593&r_date=2007-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400333&r_date=2006-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374157&r_date=2005-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=345219&r_date=2004-03-16&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=327630&r_date=2003-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=311635&r_date=2002-03-12&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=276855&r_date=2000-03-14&popup=yes

[noble1]

William Hill Handicap
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4RYEhvf4IM[/youtube]

[noble1]

Wow now onto what looks will be a very high class Champion hurdle, imho 2008 2009 were a tad sub-par, Binocular although not at his best leading upto the race in 2010, won in convincing style...

Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy [a few handy pointers]
wins by a 5 year old are rare, Katchit was a blip in 2008 as he was the first 5yo to win since See You Then back in 85, and Katchit was no where near to being in the same league as See You Then [for those that can remember this triple winner]...... only 3 horses since 1951 have been older than 8 that have won... so in a nutshell concentrate on 6 to 8 year olds......
last time out winners have won the last 23 of the last 27 runnings of this race, Punjabi in 2009 had finished 3rd last time out. Hardy Eustace 2nd last time out in 2004 are 2 of the blips in the last 10 runnings....
Irish trained horses have won 7 of the last 12, although they have not won the last 3 runnings...
8 of the last 10 runnings have be won by French bred [3 times] Irish bred [5 times]....
good previous years Cheltenham festival form [1st,2nd] is a strong trend, likewise a previous Champion hurdle top 3 finish in recent years , Supreme hurdle winners in recent times have gone onto win after next but one year [Brave Inca and Hors La Loi III] , Binocular was a runner up in 2008 and went onto to win in last years Champion....

So at the moment the main fancies for the 20011 Champion Hurdle are -
Binocular
Hurricane Fly
Menorah
Peddlers Cross

Binocular is the defending champ, Menorah is the Supreme novice champ. Peddlers Cross won the NIM Novices Hurdle which has also thrown up Champion Hurdle winners, Hardy Eustace and Istabraq... So we know these 3 have the previous festival form, but why is Hurricane Fly so well fancied? it hasn"t got no Cheltenham experience at all but if u look through his form, then you"ll see why
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=663874
Hurricane Fly has took the same races prep route [bar the John James at Cork in November] as did the great Istabraq once do as his prep campaign before going onto win at Cheltenham.. This plus he has looked so bloody impressive really puts a fly in the ointment in trying to separate the clear top 4 in the betting....

Istabraq still holds the course record for the Champion hurdle 3m 48.1secs, if not for the festival being abandoned in 2001 i think this great horse would of been the 1st to win the champion hurdle 4 times..
Here are some highlights of Istabraq"s races, ""the place is going POTTY"" lol lol lol   [2m 46secs in, excitable commentating , luvvv it]

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVB6_HvBv8U&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rUaQaY_Lqw[/youtube]

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiRBxMY52u8[/youtube]

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swrQea-NDrA[/youtube]

[nosey-p]

Too much info, too much info, system overload.

Now were did I put that pin

[noble1]

Grand Crus for the World Hurdle
Ghizao for the Arkle Chase


Oh, and nice thread guys.  

i hope u was on Crus for the Cleeve Hurdle, his price for the World hurdle has just crashed

[jacklevel06]

Grand Crus for the World Hurdle
Ghizao for the Arkle Chase


Oh, and nice thread guys.  

i hope u was on Crus for the Cleeve Hurdle, his price for the World hurdle has just crashed

Very impressed by Grand Crus.A very credible challenger for Big Bucks.

[noble1]

Cross Country Handicap Chase
race 5 of day 1 and a fairly new race, introduced in 2005.. the handy stats to know for this are that Enda Bolger has won this 4 times and is 6/6 for at least 1 horse placing, in fact he trained the 1,2,3 in 2009.. all 4 of his winning horses were owned by JP McManus, all 6 races to date have been won by an irish trainer [Rothwell & Hourigan the others]
4 of the 6 had won lto the other 2 had placed 4th, so there you have it, either put a line through all non irish trained horses and shortlist the rest or use nosey-p"s lucky? pin....

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=374159&r_date=2005-03-15&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=400335&r_date=2006-03-14&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=424595&r_date=2007-03-13&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=449562&r_date=2008-03-11&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=474812&r_date=2009-03-10&popup=yes
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/result_home.sd?race_id=499096&r_date=2010-03-16&popup=yes


David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
it has only be running at the festival since 2008 , 08 won by Whiteoak and 09,2010 both won by Quevega, so if willie mullins chooses to run Quevega in this once again then she"ll be a hotpot favourite... so it looks as though either a good look through the form nearer the day is required or its nosey-p"s lucky? pin..

[CincinnatiKid]

JCB Triumph Hurdle - I bet Local Hero 20/1 hopefully he"ll run and win.

[Chipaccrual]

Grand Crus for the World Hurdle
Ghizao for the Arkle Chase


Oh, and nice thread guys.  

i hope u was on Crus for the Cleeve Hurdle, his price for the World hurdle has just crashed

Didn"t see it unfortunately.

What"s your opinion, does he look good enough to beat Bucks ?

Thinking about laying it off now.