I witnessed a hand the other evening and it got me wondering about the maths of the situation on the river...
No comment required on any part of this other than the river please
.50/1 live
UTG+1 raises to £6
3 callers including BB
Flop -
ah
Original raiser shoves for £23 (I know, I know, but this is live poker!)
Two callers -
MP, playing c£300 bought in for £250 I think. Always thought him to be a good reg, has a few decent scores to his name and is a tricky winning player
BB, playing c£350. Works offshore but is in regularly when he"s home. Has had a good evening so far and is well up on his £100 BI. His call preflop closed the action.
Turn -
check/check
River :
:
BB bets £50
So - if you"re MP and have an Ace, how often does BB have to have the other 4 in order to make a fold profitable?
Could you fold on the basis of "Best I can do is split the pot"
Am I over-analysing this?