End game in satellite for a live event

[duke3016]

I dont think there is a wrong way to play this.

Every hands a winner and Every hands a loser - shyte back in Kenny Rogers mode

[noble1]

We"re 5 handed in a satellite for a live event. (Buyin $40)

Payout is 1st & 2nd = $250 seat, 3rd = $100, 4th = $60, 5th = $40

X - 7,000
Y - 7,000
Z - 7,000
SB - 16,500
BB - 15,800

Blinds are 200/400/50

Play folds round to you in SB and you are holding ac kd

You raise it to 1050

BB goes allin for 15,800

Limited reads on BB.  Has been in top two of chips since final table began, played minimal hands to showdown. (If that means anything)


What do you do ?

assuming the above chip stacks are a tad out there is approx 53000 chips left, 2 target main prizes, divide by 2, so around 26000 will pretty much lock up a seat.... it doesn"t always quite work like that lol as 1 stack can be skewed bigger blah blah..
so if u take out a 7000 stack your odds of finishing top 2 would be pretty good imho... on the flipside if u call now u will lose at best 35 to 40% of the time, question atm did u have a 60% chance of winning if u fold?... hmmmm the maths are to complex for heat of the moment, so i fold.....

[TheSnapper]

Fold.

Against a generous range of 22+,AJs+,AJo+ your AK has 50%. I suspect based on your read that villain is somewhat competent and is likely to hold a tighter range though.

[AMRN]

it is a tough spot, you still have to work for the seat. I think I would be inclined to call here, probably be racing.

The thought here is what is he getting it in with, he is only shipping the top of his range in reality. Im inclined to put him on QQ, JJ and maybe 1010 as he ships straight.

As I said tough spot, I would see how I felt at the time.

but you have to hit to win the hand - without other reads on the guy, I would only ever call with QQ+ in this spot. Happy to shove a very wide range, but hate calling when probably need to hit to win the hand.

hmm, not sure I agree entirely, you are not folding to a seat, there is still a lot to do and at some point you will prob need to take a race. At this point I may fold, but again it is about how I felt. At this stage Leigh is already freerolling, at what point do you take the risk to go for the win? A shove doesn"t feel strong here, why shove for 40+ BB with AA or KK? but then again why not?

I dont think there is a wrong way to play this.

for me it just comes down to the difference between shoving and calling..... if we call with AK, we have to have the best hand after the river to win the hand..... when we shove, we can win by the other person folding - and that will happen a lot of time at this stage of a satellite. With the stack sizes, there is just no need to take this risk in this spot.   Fold, and use our stack to abuse the others.

[Waz1892]

it is a tough spot, you still have to work for the seat. I think I would be inclined to call here, probably be racing.

The thought here is what is he getting it in with, he is only shipping the top of his range in reality. Im inclined to put him on QQ, JJ and maybe 1010 as he ships straight.

As I said tough spot, I would see how I felt at the time.

but you have to hit to win the hand - without other reads on the guy, I would only ever call with QQ+ in this spot. Happy to shove a very wide range, but hate calling when probably need to hit to win the hand.

hmm, not sure I agree entirely, you are not folding to a seat, there is still a lot to do and at some point you will prob need to take a race. At this point I may fold, but again it is about how I felt. At this stage Leigh is already freerolling, at what point do you take the risk to go for the win? A shove doesn"t feel strong here, why shove for 40+ BB with AA or KK? but then again why not?

I dont think there is a wrong way to play this.

for me it just comes down to the difference between shoving and calling..... if we call with AK, we have to have the best hand after the river to win the hand..... when we shove, we can win by the other person folding - and that will happen a lot of time at this stage of a satellite. With the stack sizes, there is just no need to take this risk in this spot.   Fold, and use our stack to abuse the others.

But with the fact that shoving is better than calling, we don"t we put the BB in that same frame of mind, with also the added information he has in the we only raised and not shoved ourselves - making his range more open to perhaps the norm in this situ.

Despite alot better players arguing against, I"m still calling as I"m still not convinced

[AMRN]

But with the fact that shoving is better than calling, we don"t we put the BB in that same frame of mind, with also the added information he has in the we only raised and not shoved ourselves - making his range more open to perhaps the norm in this situ.

Despite alot better players arguing against, I"m still calling as I"m still not convinced

So lets assume he has a reasonably realistic range of 88+,AJs+,AQo+ - our AKo has just under 50% equity in this spot, and given that he is the only player at the table that can bust us, we are calling for a flip for our tourney.

If this was a normal MTT, then I would agree that it could arguably be a good call - but that"s cos we would be playing for the win, and trying to gather all the chips in play. In this spot though, we don"t need to gather all the chips - in fact we are only a short way from owning half the chips in play which would be the average stack when the seats are awarded.

I really don"t understand why people think taking a completely unnecessary flip against the only player that can hurt us at this stage in a satellite would be logical play when we have such a big stack.

[deanp27]

It would be an easy fold if we were almost a lock for a seat but I don"t think we are. But raise folding the top of our range seems dirty to me. Bvb situations can be very specific spots dependent upon history etc but I"d so want tocall this off. What were your intentions when you raised? Were you going to raise/fold?

[samuel_9]

I dont think there is a wrong way to play this.

Every hands a winner and Every hands a loser - shyte back in Kenny Rogers mode

sorry i cant resist it.......BUT. Whos the one sitting deside kenny? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNnrTNFWcsg&feature=related. folding all day long

[ian.ski309]

Anyone else offering up justification for calling with the AK ?

Nope, got to fold here. You"re too well stacked and in a great position at the business end of the game. Never calling a potential monster for my tournament life pre flop with Ace high.

[WYoung83]

fold. Dont need to flip vs the other big stack.

[deanp27]

Anyone else offering up justification for calling with the AK ?

Nope, got to fold here. You"re too well stacked and in a great position at the business end of the game. Never calling a potential monster for my tournament life pre flop with Ace high.

this post is full of ak cliches - folding is ok here but not because Ak is merely " ace hi"

[deanp27]

Also when considering hand ranges for villain you need to consider that he has put in 40bb over a small open. Does villain do that with aces or kings?

[AMRN]

Also when considering hand ranges for villain you need to consider that he has put in 40bb over a small open. Does villain do that with aces or kings?

doubt it, but he is very likely to do it with a pocket pair..... and do we really need to flip at this stage?

[noble1]

hmmm shoving 40bb"s to win 2 or 3 bb"s, wont exactly change your strategy will it... choosing the play that has the most profitable EV according to how the table is playing is the way to go imho, if villain was tight passive then raise folding is best is it not?
learning to understand the difference between chip EV and $EV is the key, but its a fairly big subject full of maths and instinct conjecture then on top of that u have the clumping effect, there"s more chance for the BB to have a strong hand as players fold round to him.... meh worth studying it if u were to ever end up playing really tough strong players...

[deanp27]

Don"t think raise/folding is necessarily bad but I guess this means we are r/f everything bar aces and kings (poss qq).

In a STD tourney I am snapping this off btw.

Also for a satellite we are already in the money and it doesn"t exactly go 0,0,0,1k etc in fact it is quite similar to a standard mtt payout structure bar top 2