End game in satellite for a live event

[PantsMan]

Insta-fold (well, maybe a bit of hollywood first!).  

Never ever calling here in a satellite sitting with 40 bbs and 3 smaller stacks at the table.

Basic satellite strategy imo. No need to battle with the other big stack and no need to be flipping or risking your whole stack with such a weak holding. At best he"s holding AQ or below and even then you"re only a 72% favourite. Even if he"s holding 7-2 os you"re only a 2-1 favourite. If he has a pair you"re flipping. None of those situations is good in a satellite for your whole stack when you"re currently in such a good position.

[Swinebag]

I think the stacks are deep enough to fold here. Whilst the seat is far from a shoe in and you will most likely need to increase your stack at some point, it seems silly to take on the only player who could bust you. FWIW you are most likely ahead here.

It does seem strange to raise fold such a strong hand and it is probably such a weak play that it makes you think, "why bother raising into the BB in the first place".

If the stacks were shallower then I"m calling.

[noble1]

http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/

goto open shove and put in 3% or so for villain to call shove or reraise shove, u"ll be surprised how close it is in cEV terms [raise fold marginally best]... note if $EV then probs a clear fold...

[Chipaccrual]

All interesting views guys, appreciate the responses.  Let"s look at it from another angle.  

[Chipaccrual]

We"re 5 handed in a satellite for a live event. (Buyin $40)

Payout is 1st & 2nd = $250 seat, 3rd = $100, 4th = $60, 5th = $40

X - 7,000
Y - 7,000
Z - 7,000
SB - 16,500
BB - 15,800

Blinds are 200/400/50

Play folds round to the SB who raises it to 1050

You are in the BB with  ah

Limited reads on SB.  Has knocked out a couple of the players on the final table to build their stack.



What plays do you have here ?

[Marty719]

With no info I fold.  No need to get involved with the only guy who has us covered.

I also fold to the shove in the initial scenario.  There are often sat qualifiers to these sats and it makes them weaker in general.  We can wait for a better spot.

[deanp27]

Sometimes peel, sometimes fold. Only in exceptional cases do I 3betsmall/fold. Obv jamming would be bad unless oppo will fold ak and jacks face up lol

[MintTrav]

We"re 5 handed in a satellite for a live event. (Buyin $40)

Payout is 1st & 2nd = $250 seat, 3rd = $100, 4th = $60, 5th = $40

X - 7,000
Y - 7,000
Z - 7,000
SB - 16,500
BB - 15,800

Blinds are 200/400/50

Play folds round to you in SB and you are holding ac kd

You raise it to 1050

BB goes allin for 15,800

Limited reads on BB.  Has been in top two of chips since final table began, played minimal hands to showdown. (If that means anything)


What do you do ?

I"m putting BB on a weak A here, possibly suited.

[MintTrav]

Another scenario:

You are short-stacked, equal with two others, with five left in a two-seat satellite, when the two big stacks get it all-in against each other pre-flop.

Do you:

- start celebrating straight away?

or

- wait til the hand has played out in case it is a split?

[samuel_9]

With no info I fold.  No need to get involved with the only guy who has us covered.

I also fold to the shove in the initial scenario.  There are often sat qualifiers to these sats and it makes them weaker in general.  We can wait for a better spot.

NOW Marty19 your never folding ah here never never folding to a small rase but a lot de pens on how you play the hand 1 see the flop 2 you flop the nuts and get paid .3 you allways have the opppion of folding after the flop if you dont like it .and you still have 14k be hind. jmo  

[AMRN]

so the background to the OP is now clear.  Leigh made a "good" call with the AK, and the guy hits his 30% shot, and that"s all she wrote.

......and that 30% shot is why we should be folding AK in the OP.

[Luke1]

To be honest Leigh, I wouldnt of been calling my shove with K 10 and getting lucky against AJ to help you get into that position.

You know my limited hand range so was quite shocked to get the call.

So no sympathy from my end!  

And in answer to your question, would be a fold all day long...!

[jbworldwide]

Always good for a giggle John

I would like to point out that I mis-read the first situation and thought we were a 7k stack on the button, not reading properly ftl, still I think my arguement is valid, although in SB I jam for fun , but your stack is big and you do not need to get tricky with the same stack size.

In the second scenario, I think I peel here, no need to get too fruity and just be a bit trappy, I do not jam in here unless I know SB has been at it a lot.

[jbworldwide]

so the background to the OP is now clear.  Leigh made a "good" call with the AK, and the guy hits his 30% shot, and that"s all she wrote.

......and that 30% shot is why we should be folding AK in the OP.

Really? Got your opponent dominated pre and you wouldn"t take it?

[Marty719]

so the background to the OP is now clear.  Leigh made a "good" call with the AK, and the guy hits his 30% shot, and that"s all she wrote.

......and that 30% shot is why we should be folding AK in the OP.

Really? Got your opponent dominated pre and you wouldn"t take it?

it obv doesnt matter what his actual hand was.