End game in satellite for a live event

[AMRN]

so the background to the OP is now clear.  Leigh made a "good" call with the AK, and the guy hits his 30% shot, and that"s all she wrote.

......and that 30% shot is why we should be folding AK in the OP.

Really? Got your opponent dominated pre and you wouldn"t take it?

No - not in the OP example. "Dominated" just means we win 70% of the time - but it also means we lose 30% of the time...... BUT when it comes to making the call, clearly 70% is our best case scenario, with 50% being much more likely.

Normal MTT - snap call. Satellite with a big stack against the only other big stack - snap fold (perhaps even if cards are face up!!)

[noble1]

 ah - bb can shove if he thinks sb only calls 5% of hands if his opening range is 20% and bb will get a 31% winning chance if called [in cEV land] 99+,AQs+,AQo+
check the sheets [reshoving open raiser]

as for calling , hmmm no thanks, with 3 short stacks to my left i think the better strat is applying pressure to them

[TheSnapper]

so the background to the OP is now clear.  Leigh made a "good" call with the AK, and the guy hits his 30% shot, and that"s all she wrote.

......and that 30% shot is why we should be folding AK in the OP.

Really? Got your opponent dominated pre and you wouldn"t take it?

No - not in the OP example. "Dominated" just means we win 70% of the time - but it also means we lose 30% of the time...... BUT when it comes to making the call, clearly 70% is our best case scenario, with 50% being much more likely.

Normal MTT - snap call. Satellite with a big stack against the only other big stack - snap fold (perhaps even if cards are face up!!)

Thought you were being sarcastic the first time Steve, but that"s just ridiculous

[Chipaccrual]

To be honest Leigh, I wouldnt of been calling my shove with K 10 and getting lucky against AJ to help you get into that position.

You know my limited hand range so was quite shocked to get the call.

So no sympathy from my end!  

And in answer to your question, would be a fold all day long...!

I"d raised from late position, you shoved for about 3k from the small blind.  I"m playing about 11k/12k if I remember correctly.  I"m playing the position, but already have in my mind that if you shove, I"m calling.  If I wasn"t going to call, then I wouldn"t raise.  Probaby folding if one of the 7k stacks had shoved.  Can"t remember exactly what the blinds were, but I think I raised it to about 600/800, so it was another 2.5k for me to call into a 4.3k pot.  (I"m guessing the pot size a bit there)

[PantsMan]

so the background to the OP is now clear.  Leigh made a "good" call with the AK, and the guy hits his 30% shot, and that"s all she wrote.

......and that 30% shot is why we should be folding AK in the OP.

Really? Got your opponent dominated pre and you wouldn"t take it?

No - not in the OP example. "Dominated" just means we win 70% of the time - but it also means we lose 30% of the time...... BUT when it comes to making the call, clearly 70% is our best case scenario, with 50% being much more likely.

Normal MTT - snap call. Satellite with a big stack against the only other big stack - snap fold (perhaps even if cards are face up!!)

Totally agree. Satellite stategy is very different to normal MTT strategy and it"s often the right thing to fold big hands, including Aces and Kings, and especially AK! It"s the biggest error people make in satellites. Had someone do it against me in a £300 DTD satellite.

About 10 players left, 2 more players to knock out for us all to get seats. Short stack shoves for 6-7bb, i shove over the top for 20 bbs with AA to isolate, player in the BB calls the shove with AK, for his whole stack (about 15 bbs). That"s a simple fold in a satellite.

[PantsMan]

To be honest Leigh, I wouldnt of been calling my shove with K 10 and getting lucky against AJ to help you get into that position.

You know my limited hand range so was quite shocked to get the call.

So no sympathy from my end!  

And in answer to your question, would be a fold all day long...!

I"d raised from late position, you shoved for about 3k from the small blind.  I"m playing about 11k/12k if I remember correctly.  I"m playing the position, but already have in my mind that if you shove, I"m a luckbox.  If I wasn"t going to call, then I wouldn"t raise.  Probaby folding if one of the 7k stacks had shoved.  Can"t remember exactly what the blinds were, but I think I raised it to about 600/800, so it was another 2.5k for me to call into a 4.3k pot.  (I"m guessing the pot size a bit there) and i"m a fish

FYP  

[deanp27]

Is it a seat that you have the option of buying in or does it have more "value" than $250 in that it is an exclusive seat?

[Chipaccrual]

Is it a seat that you have the option of buying in or does it have more "value" than $250 in that it is an exclusive seat?

It"s a ticket to an event, which you could buy into directly.

[JamieCarra]

Fold.

Against a generous range of 22+,AJs+,AJo+ your AK has 50%. I suspect based on your read that villain is somewhat competent and is likely to hold a tighter range though.

If villain is competent he"s going to be shoving a lot wider than this,  personally I would be shoving close to 100% in this kind of spot as the other big stack can virtually never call.

For that reason against a good aggro villain in Leigh's spot I would either just fold the SB when it first gets to me or possibly just open shove to take the move away from the BB.

EDIT - I"m inta shoving the A8s and a hell of a lot worse in the BB spot

[samuel_9]

ONE question.... why not just call and see the FLOP with this  ah

[JamieCarra]

ONE question.... why not just call and see the FLOP with this  ah

Why see a flop when we can pick up the ~1500 chips in the middle?

[Waz1892]

We"re 5 handed in a satellite for a live event. (Buyin $40)

Payout is 1st & 2nd = $250 seat, 3rd = $100, 4th = $60, 5th = $40

X - 7,000
Y - 7,000
Z - 7,000
SB - 16,500
BB - 15,800

Blinds are 200/400/50

Play folds round to you in SB and you are holding ac kd

You raise it to 1050

BB goes allin for 15,800

Limited reads on BB.  Has been in top two of chips since final table began, played minimal hands to showdown. (If that means anything)


What do you do ?

I"m putting BB on a weak A here, possibly suited.

That made me chuckle out loud!

[Waz1892]

so the background to the OP is now clear.  Leigh made a "good" call with the AK, and the guy hits his 30% shot, and that"s all she wrote.

......and that 30% shot is why we should be folding AK in the OP.

Steve, you"re in a different league to me with MTT and SATs and well poker in general so keen to discuss with you and learn at the same time..

Suppose we do fold the AK, and wait for a better spot with perhaps one of the shorter stacks.

It is a safe-ish assumption that at some point very soon either -

a) small stack will knock off a small stack and then you"ll have 3 large stacks, instead of just 2. and we are all the same boat.

b) We"ll look to bully the Short stack, who will themselves within a few rounds be looking to shove lightish.  When they do shove, wouldn"t we find ourselves in a not to disilimar position we found ourselves in BvB - OK, maybe not with our whole stack at risk, but a 70/30 or flipping and losing would just about eliminate us anyway.

Can"t get around why we think BB is not bullying himself, knowing we can"t call because of everything everyone has said.  We know that, he"ll know that...so the fact we have a genuine hand, still snapping him.

a little fishes thoughts to learn to be a shark!  

[ian.ski309]

[samuel_9]