River Value Shove vs unknown

[Marty719]

Only played 25 hands with him after table change...nothing has really stood out but it leans towards him being on the passive side.  This is the $33 10k guaranteed on stars.  Thoughts on river?  The only slight read in the hand is he tank called flop.

***** Hand History for Game 58807561968 ***** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, March 07, 10:13:03 ET 2011
Table 371717938 31 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: mike121112 ( $2915.00 USD )
Seat 2: C3DRIC7780 ( $1560.00 USD )
Seat 3: roly steve44 ( $4324.00 USD )
Seat 4: condotti ( $8155.00 USD )
Seat 5: elefante pr ( $1551.00 USD )
Seat 6: noStudServic ( $8255.00 USD )
Seat 7: kred67 ( $2880.00 USD )
Seat 8: Hero ( $5655.00 USD )
Seat 9: manue77 ( $2040.00 USD )
elefante pr posts small blind [$40.00 USD].
noStudServic posts big blind [$80.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [   ]
kred67 folds
Hero raises [$185.00 USD]
manue77 folds
mike121112 folds
C3DRIC7780 folds
roly steve44 folds
condotti folds
elefante pr calls [$145.00 USD]
noStudServic calls [$105.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
elefante pr checks
noStudServic checks
Hero bets [$280.00 USD]
elefante pr folds
noStudServic calls [$280.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
noStudServic checks
Hero bets [$780.00 USD]
noStudServic calls [$780.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ ]
noStudServic bets [$800.00 USD]
Hero raises [$4410.00 USD]

[PantsMan]

What are you hoping to achieve? Win the hand here and now or get called by a weaker holding?

I can only see him calling here with the flush, which has you beat. The fact he"s tanked on the flop then suddenly bet out when the third spade comes on the river makes me think that"s what he has.

[AMRN]

only purpose for raising this river is to make a better hand fold or a worse hand call.

Having gone this far, I can"t think he is ever gonna fold a flush..... and with the way hand has gone, I can"t imagine he would ever call with any one or two pair hands.

I think I just call here, and congratulate him if he made his flush.

[Marty719]

fwiw - I find a lot of the time, ppl click call pretty quick with good draws.

[Marty719]

What are you hoping to achieve? Win the hand here and now or get called by a weaker holding?

100% hoping to get called by a weaker holding.  I wouldnt turn a set of into a bluff vs an unknown like this.

[noble1]

say he tank called a set of 3"s marty, imo random villains will rr on the turn, so his river line looks in the main 1 pair kings, maybe a set of 6"s or a flush [he could be multi tabling, nipped to the toilet etc  ]

given your position and the king of spades xx texture, would he not expect u to check behind alot here with your spade draw range?
the river rr is so large then occasionally u met get someone to spazz and call with KQ KJ etc, i wouldnt bank on it being a profitable line though versus a random  

[Swinebag]

I probably just call here - can"t think of too many hands that are calling that shove and losing.

He is surely check calling again with his King hands.

There are a lot of flush and straight draw combos that call turn and either get there or don"t on the river and will vb/bluff the river. Either way the shove doesn"t achieve much.

[Swinebag]

fwiw - I find a lot of the time, ppl click call pretty quick with good draws.

This is a good point. But player is priced out on the turn and may be thinking of other ways to win the pot with all the bluff outs that he can rep

[Marty719]

say he tank called a set of 3"s marty, imo random villains will rr on the turn, so his river line looks in the main 1 pair kings, maybe a set of 6"s or a flush [he could be multi tabling, nipped to the toilet etc  ]

given your position and the king of spades xx texture, would he not expect u to check behind alot here with your spade draw range?
the river rr is so large then occasionally u met get someone to spazz and call with KQ KJ etc, i wouldnt bank on it being a profitable line though versus a random  

I dnt think I check behind my spade draws as a default.  I still check back some amount of the time, but I think Kxx flops are definately ones that I will c/b the majority of the time.  Surprised no-one has mentioned his river bet-sizing which I think is pretty key!!  He bets 800 into 2675.  Do we assume the average $33 stars player is capable of taking this line to induce.  I think its more likely he is trying to get a cheap showdown w/ a medium hand w/ sdv.  I really dnt think he has many flushes in his range when he tank calls flop and bets 1/3rd pot otr.

[AMRN]

I dnt think I check behind my spade draws as a default.  I still check back some amount of the time, but I think Kxx flops are definately ones that I will c/b the majority of the time.  Surprised no-one has mentioned his river bet-sizing which I think is pretty key!!  He bets 800 into 2675.  Do we assume the average $33 stars player is capable of taking this line to induce.  I think its more likely he is trying to get a cheap showdown w/ a medium hand w/ sdv.  I really dnt think he has many flushes in his range when he tank calls flop and bets 1/3rd pot otr.

So then I ask again - what are you hoping for when you shove? If you think he has a medium strength hand, he"s unlikely to call a shove. So I go back to my original point - all the shove will achieve will be a fold from his worse hands and a call from his better hands.  If you think he has a medium strength hand, surely a callable value bet is in order?

[Marty719]

I agree a smaller v/bet is prob a better option, but people do not tend to blocker-bet/fold too much, and I felt I crushed his range when he bet so small.  If he bets 3/4 pot+ otr then I flat always without further info.  

[noble1]

meh change the title to very thin river reraise marty
i dont mind a bit of creative thinking, especially when trying to exploit oppo"s std lines, i"d prefer tbh if u had seen villain tank call some number of times beforehand though [with the odd showdown]  

if villain is 1/2 decent and has seen u make large river bets upto now or has seen u check behind a lot rivers then the read on the bet sizing can go either way...
hard to say what villain is doing based on the info we have to go by marty, just going by texture, action, bet sizing etc
villains range is any of the above, king x , 66, flushes, air...

[PantsMan]

What are you hoping to achieve? Win the hand here and now or get called by a weaker holding?

100% hoping to get called by a weaker holding.  I wouldnt turn a set of into a bluff vs an unknown like this.

I"m just struggling to see what weaker holdings you think he might call a shove with. There are plenty of hands you"re getting to fold here but if you get called i reckon you"re behind. Although as this is on Stars i fully expect you to tell us he turned over KQ and you won the pot!  

[Santino67]

My thinking here is that he looks like he"s checked flop and turn to catch a free card and calling with odds, possibly with As Xs. Bet on end is either good value bet with nuts or cheap blocker with KQ/KJ etc. I"d be happy to call on end with 3rd Spade appearing as I think the only call I"d get is from the flush, but there could also be a horrid sneaky straight out there as well, albeit doubtful.

[PantsMan]

So, do we get to know the result of the shove?