Will run some numbers later but intuitively I suspect that this is not a good move versus Ians opening range. Dont think he folds enough.
Confounded by the numbers yet again. Ignoring Noble"s "players yet to act" factor ( temporarily ) the numbers are suprisingly revealing.
We have a spot where an uber nit open raises from mp and a nit 3bet jams from lp with 99.....
Raiser will fold 58%
Assuming Ian folds JJ
99 has 36% equity when called
cEV for jamming is +3383
That all has to be weighted against.......
27% You will exit the tourney
58% You will find a fold and win a pot of 4300 to increase your stack by 25%
15% You will double up to 36100 ( a healthy 45bb"s ) a stack increase of 112%