Hand from the team event.

[TheSnapper]

It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain   put down hands such as  jc  jh,  ts  tc ,  any lower pair and  ac  qd  and below.

ur seriously folding all those hands to this shove?

What do you think is Mikey"s 3 bet range here George?

[PHIL_TC]

But Jon I think you"re proved wrong with 4 of the top 5 individuals including my team APAT Forum all failing to get medals in Team event :

Ian Thompson 2nd - APAT Forum
Karl McDonald 3rd - A World of Poker
John Murray 4th - Live Pub Poker League
George Lawson 5th - Newcastle Poker Forum

A great example of Team points scoring was for example silver medalists The Hendon Mob, had 6 in the top 50, but only one making it through to the top 20 x

[TheSnapper]

Will run some numbers later but intuitively I suspect that this is not a good move versus Ians opening range. Dont think he folds enough.

Confounded by the numbers yet again. Ignoring Noble"s "players yet to act" factor ( temporarily ) the numbers are suprisingly revealing.

We have a spot where an uber nit open raises from mp and a nit 3bet jams from lp with 99.....

Raiser will fold 58% Assuming Ian folds JJ  
99 has 36% equity when called
cEV for jamming is +3383

That all has to be weighted against.......

27% You will exit the tourney
58% You will find a fold and win a pot of 4300 to increase your stack by 25%
15% You will double up to 36100 ( a healthy 45bb"s ) a stack increase of 112%

[Jon MW]

But Jon I think you"re proved wrong with 4 of the top 5 individuals including my team APAT Forum all failing to get medals in Team event :

Ian Thompson 2nd - APAT Forum
Karl McDonald 3rd - A World of Poker
John Murray 4th - Live Pub Poker League
George Lawson 5th - Newcastle Poker Forum

A great example of Team points scoring was for example silver medalists The Hendon Mob, had 6 in the top 50, but only one making it through to the top 20 x

You"re looking at the map to a team medal upside down

The relevant stat is that the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place teams all had a player on the final table.

It"s a necessary - but not sufficient - condition to put your team into contention.

If you play weakly because of the team element it could harm your chances of making the final table - and your final table could have been what tips your team into a winning position.

[TheSnapper]

model for when villain folds approx 75% with 3 PLAYERS YET TO ACT BEHIND who call 3.5% of the time!!!!  

Have"nt ever seen ev calcs done this way Noble, though it does make sense that the likelihood of getting a cold caller would be a factor.

Where can we find that tool?

Effective stacks are 17000 btw.

Are the calling ranges for button, SB & BB as wide as 3.5%, player dependent obviously but facing a nit raise and a nit 3bet.......

JJ+,AQs+,AKo
or
TT+,AKs,AKo

seems a wide estimation

[pables]

It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain   put down hands such as  jc  jh,  ts  tc ,  any lower pair and  ac  qd  and below. I don"t have the same computer up there as Brendan but there were the team dynamics to think of,-to be honest I thought of not much else for 1.1/2 days-, which is what made this tournament so fantastic and I eventually made the correct call, it was never a slow roll just an old man trying to get to make the right decision.

A pleasure to finally meet you Mike and as I say Great bet

The Nit

ur seriously folding all those hands to this shove?

possibly George   , I am pretty tight which does have its plus points, but then again I am starting to learn more as I continue to play with better players and most are in all seriousness.

Ty

Ian

[George2Loose]

It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain   put down hands such as  jc  jh,  ts  tc ,  any lower pair and  ac  qd  and below.

ur seriously folding all those hands to this shove?

What do you think is Mikey"s 3 bet range here George?

it"s difficult for me obv not knowing how tight OR is but surely in this spot all hands above are a snap with the possible exception of AQ

[noble1]

model for when villain folds approx 75% with 3 PLAYERS YET TO ACT BEHIND who call 3.5% of the time!!!!  

Have"nt ever seen ev calcs done this way Noble, though it does make sense that the likelihood of getting a cold caller would be a factor.

Where can we find that tool?

Effective stacks are 17000 btw.

Are the calling ranges for button, SB & BB as wide as 3.5%, player dependent obviously but facing a nit raise and a nit 3bet.......

JJ+,AQs+,AKo
or
TT+,AKs,AKo

seems a wide estimation

21000 my fault i was in a rush but i left it because it only changes the numbers by 200 or so, no read was given as per Ian, nor that u guys consider him nitty lol [sry Ian]
That model above was 30% open calling the top 7.5% to a stealing stack shoving [mikey] with 3 to act behind and ian calling both stacks,  again mike gave no image for himself [sry mike didn"t know u was a nit ]


i"ve left the link for eric"s sheets before but here they are - http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/ - u might have to join as a free member [PXF] to be able to use them...

[TheSnapper]

21000 my fault i was in a rush but i left it because it only changes the numbers by 200 or so, no read was given as per Ian, nor that u guys consider him nitty lol [sry Ian]
That model above was 30% open calling the top 7.5% to a stealing stack shoving [mikey] with 3 to act behind and ian calling both stacks,  again mike gave no image for himself [sry mike didn"t know u was a nit ]


i"ve left the link for eric"s sheets before but here they are - http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/ - u might have to join as a free member [PXF] to be able to use them...

Calling 7.5% ? he only opens slightly wider than that.

Any chance you can run......
17k effective 10% open and 3% calling range for OR and the 3 to act.

Curious and PXF won"t let me in for some reason.

[noble1]

Any chance you can run......
17k effective 10% open and 3% calling range for OR and the 3 to act.

Curious and PXF won"t let me in for some reason.

[Mikeyboy9361]

model for when villain folds approx 75% with 3 PLAYERS YET TO ACT BEHIND who call 3.5% of the time!!!!  

Have"nt ever seen ev calcs done this way Noble, though it does make sense that the likelihood of getting a cold caller would be a factor.

Where can we find that tool?

Effective stacks are 17000 btw.

Are the calling ranges for button, SB & BB as wide as 3.5%, player dependent obviously but facing a nit raise and a nit 3bet.......

JJ+,AQs+,AKo
or
TT+,AKs,AKo

seems a wide estimation

21000 my fault i was in a rush but i left it because it only changes the numbers by 200 or so, no read was given as per Ian, nor that u guys consider him nitty lol [sry Ian]
That model above was 30% open calling the top 7.5% to a stealing stack shoving [mikey] with 3 to act behind and ian calling both stacks,  again mike gave no image for himself [sry mike didn"t know u was a nit ]


i"ve left the link for eric"s sheets before but here they are - http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/ - u might have to join as a free member [PXF] to be able to use them...

Neither did I!

[TheSnapper]

Any chance you can run......
17k effective 10% open and 3% calling range for OR and the 3 to act.

Curious and PXF won"t let me in for some reason.

Thanks Mark.

Its interesting to note that since all small pairs have roughly the same equity versus OR"s calling range, suprisingly a reshove with 22 (31.64%) has very nearly the same value as a reshove with TT (33.65%).

[Marty719]

What range can we profitably reshove here vs a 3% calling range?

[TheSnapper]

What range can we profitably reshove here vs a 3% calling range?

ATC has 25% equity and +930 cEV

[noble1]

What range can we profitably reshove here vs a 3% calling range?

ATC has 25% equity and +930 cEV

your getting there Bren,  ATC with no one to act behind your very nearly spot on, 3 to act behind with a real nit range of QQ+ AKs would be in the ball park of around a slight minus to a very small positive... all dependent if Ian was to fold any part of his 3% call range even just once after seeing the action, if he calls mikes shove everytime plus 1 caller behind, then mike is a very small winner ev wise... if Ian folds any part of his 3% call range then if mike shoved 100% he would have a cEV of approx half a BB+...
Marty at the bottom of eric"s sheets the Winning Chances Needed to Reshove (given villain"s calling %) box gives the absolute minimum win % u"d need to break even.. [assuming that our assumptions for the players ranges are correct of course ]