Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: mporter123 on January 27, 2012, 13:21:08 PM
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APAT Brighton
Blinds are 200/400 (50)
Hero has 7.9K - well below average stack.
Villain has approx 30K and is the table captain.
Hero has a tight image. Villain has been very aggro - involved in more then 50% of pots. Seems to be a fairly good LAG but has made some spazzy plays and called off super light on a number of occasions knowing he is likely behind. Seen to 3bet a fair bit and he is a reg at the casino.
Folded round to hero on the button who has 3c 3d. Villain is in the big blind.
Hero makes it 900, villain 3 bets to 2.3K. We?
I had a plan before the hand but not sure it was the right one. Will give my thoughts after a few opinions.
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If I am playing the hand I am jamming
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If I am playing the hand I am jamming
Re-read OP and deleted my original response.
We"re in it to win it...JAM!
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When I say jam I mean I am open shoving pre. As played I probably fold but would never play it this way in the first place.
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Agree with Dean - prefer jamming pre, but as played I"m probably still jamming here with perceived FE and dead money.
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Im folding. Villain priced in with his entire range, and 3"s wnt have good equity vs any 3b range. Agree tht jamming button is our best option here...
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Well we don"t know villain but I am presuming he is not 3bet/folding vs a 19bb stack. Suppose this is a fairly big assumption in the live poker arena lol
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There"s usually FE - however small. Even if you ignore it you"re probably around 40-46% vs his range depending on how crazy his is. Any sign that he"s a bit deranged I"m just going to bang it in.
I like the line if he"s a non-thinking LAG and could 3-bet/fold in this spot - and is never flatting. A lot to hope for.
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I"m open jamming most comps. I"m probs raise/folding in an APAT event though
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Hmm here I,m inclined to think that the three betting loon will probably never pass so ......
My 33 is only in front of 22 and flipping against any other random hand.and of course he could have 44 or better so folding here would still leave 7 k a playable stack so I fold and wait for a better spot .. ;)
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APAT Brighton
Seen to 3bet a fair bit
You"re jamming 7k to win a pot of approx 3.8k and leaving villain odds of 2/1 to call. I"m keen to know if he"s 3bet folded previous to this hand before I put my tourney on the line. I"ll jam if i"m pretty sure he"ll fold....but def folding if I think my best case scenario is as a very weak fave.
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Button v Blind into an aggro, wide 3 betting opponent with ~20 bigs. Raise folding is really bad imho. You have two viable choices, fold, which is nitty but preferable to raise folding or open jamming which will be profitable even when the blinds call as wide as 55+,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,A8o+,KQo.
Our open jam gets through ~70% and we increase our stack by 13% when we take down the pot uncontested, the aggro villain two to our left has us somewhat handcuffed so we likely have limited opportunities to chip up. If your table was due to break soon you might make a case for the nittier option but even then open jam seems the best option.
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stick it right in his bloody eye!
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Not sure I like open jamming ~20xBB. Hate raise/folding from this stack. If we know BB will 3-bet almost all of the time here, then folding may be best. Would prefer to save my stack for a 3-bet shove ~20x with SC type hands than open jam here.
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I"m never putting a single chip in pre with 33 in this spot. As said before waiting for a stronger hand or spot to 3bet shove similar is better. As played tho it"s a close 1 and I would fold because I"m 99% sure he is calling for a flip.
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I think an open jam is probably the best option on reflection.
In the hand he did 3bet me and I pretty much insta jammed. I had that plan before I raised initially but it was a pretty flawed one as once he 3bet, I had next to no fold equity.
The spot would probably be more interesting if we were in the 22-30bb range - not sure how much we can profitably jam here.
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I think an open jam is probably the best option on reflection.
Thing is, the blinds and antes will amount to around 2.5xBB, and by open jamming, you"re risking 19x to win that 2.5x. If you wait for a spot to shove over someone who has opened to 2.5x already, you"re risking 19x to win 5x - double the return. Better still, if there is a raiser and a caller or two, your 19x squeeze shove could be picking up 7.5x or 10x - significantly better than 2.5x in the OP.
By open jamming 19x with 33, chances are you either win 2.5x, or lose the lot, but you will never be in a strong position to double up unless you get lucky with the board - you only dominate 22 and any x3 hands, none of which are likely to call your shove. If called, you have to hope he has unpaired overcards, and that you win the flip.
imo there are much better spots to shove your stack, and with 19x, the urgency is not critical.
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Thing is, the blinds and antes will amount to around 2.5xBB, and by open jamming, you"re risking 19x to win that 2.5x. If you wait for a spot to shove over someone who has opened to 2.5x already, you"re risking 19x to win 5x - double the return. Better still, if there is a raiser and a caller or two, your 19x squeeze shove could be picking up 7.5x or 10x - significantly better than 2.5x in the OP.
By open jamming 19x with 33, chances are you either win 2.5x, or lose the lot, but you will never be in a strong position to double up unless you get lucky with the board - you only dominate 22 and any x3 hands, none of which are likely to call your shove. If called, you have to hope he has unpaired overcards, and that you win the flip.
imo there are much better spots to shove your stack, and with 19x, the urgency is not critical.
Assuming a wide 15% calling range ( I would suspect at least one of sb & bb maybe both are calling a lot tighter though )
55+,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,A8o+,KQo
cEV for jamming is +1491, that"s a whopping 19% ROI.
The better spot you speak of may or may not arrive and so is hard to quantify. The aggro table captain dynamic limits our options and is also somewhat likely to tighten the other players ranges too. If that is the case then any light resteal will be against tighter opening ranges and the resultant loss in FE will dramatically affect the EV of restealing.
Folding is ok tbh but unless our table is likely to close shortly we really can"t afford to miss any of the the rare opportunities that come our way. We have all too few options and those options lessen as our stack creeps from 20 bb"s towards 10 bb"s, next level we will have a 13 bb stack so urgency is definitely a factor.
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Thing is, the blinds and antes will amount to around 2.5xBB, and by open jamming, you"re risking 19x to win that 2.5x. If you wait for a spot to shove over someone who has opened to 2.5x already, you"re risking 19x to win 5x - double the return. Better still, if there is a raiser and a caller or two, your 19x squeeze shove could be picking up 7.5x or 10x - significantly better than 2.5x in the OP.
By open jamming 19x with 33, chances are you either win 2.5x, or lose the lot, but you will never be in a strong position to double up unless you get lucky with the board - you only dominate 22 and any x3 hands, none of which are likely to call your shove. If called, you have to hope he has unpaired overcards, and that you win the flip.
imo there are much better spots to shove your stack, and with 19x, the urgency is not critical.
Assuming a wide 15% calling range ( I would suspect at least one of sb & bb maybe both are calling a lot tighter though )
55+,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,A8o+,KQo
cEV for jamming is +1491, that"s a whopping 19% ROI.
The better spot you speak of may or may not arrive and so is hard to quantify. The aggro table captain dynamic limits our options and is also somewhat likely to tighten the other players ranges too. If that is the case then any light resteal will be against tighter opening ranges and the resultant loss in FE will dramatically affect the EV of restealing.
Folding is ok tbh but unless our table is likely to close shortly we really can"t afford to miss any of the the rare opportunities that come our way. We have all too few options and those options lessen as our stack creeps from 20 bb"s towards 10 bb"s, next level we will have a 13 bb stack so urgency is definitely a factor.
Agree that we need to get a move on here.... but is 33 really the right hand? What about middling suited connectors? 78s perhaps? That"s in better shape than 33 if called by an overpair. Given that we don"t actually want a call here (hence the 19x open shove), our hand is nothing more than a bluff.... and imo it"s way better to bluff with 78s than 33.
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Agree that we need to get a move on here.... but is 33 really the right hand? What about middling suited connectors? 78s perhaps? That"s in better shape than 33 if called by an overpair. Given that we don"t actually want a call here (hence the 19x open shove), our hand is nothing more than a bluff.... and imo it"s way better to bluff with 78s than 33.
We"d obviously much prefer the "right hand" but we don"t have the luxury of waiting for that rare occurrence. as far as the merits of 78s over 33, the sums disagree with your opinion.......
cEV for jamming 78s is +1081 so it would be equally correct to jam either hand in this spot but 33 will yield a greater return.
Is it a bluff? maybe, obviously we don"t really want a caller but our hand has value versus the calling range and the EV is an aggregate figure of the times we are called and win +1788, called and lose -1452 and obviously not called and pick up the blinds and antes +745.5.
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Where does that calculation come from please Noble?
Be a really handy app...
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Where does that calculation come from please Noble?
Be a really handy app...
http://www.apat.com/forum/index.php?topic=9161.msg149317#msg149317
http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/openshove.html