Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Erimus on March 28, 2012, 11:37:06 AM
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Hi, would like peoples views on this hand as played by the villain i won the hand on the river but would like peoples views on both parties play, ty in advance
Background 95 people left 82 paid min cash is insignificant as bought in for $20 min cash is $28.
I have been playing fairly steady and at this stage min raise is standard raise on this table.
Villain stats are 32/28 3bet 18%, he has 3 bet me a few times when he has had button and havent played back as yet.
Questions i would like views on are
1) Are we happy to see flop here with Qs Js ?
2) on the flop we pick up open ender, happy with the flat of the raise or reraising hoping to get it all in
The turn gives us more outs, the villain checks and gives us the free card,(think if i was him here i would bet 3/4 pot or even get the lot in and make me pay for the
draw).
I take the free card and get there with the flush, he then shoves, obv its an easy call but if he had shoved the turn are we happy to call with all the outs.
Lost a race later on finished 47th no bink unfortunately.
PokerStars Hand #77907536293: Tournament #537485228, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (1000/2000) - 2012/03/27 20:15:15 WET [2012/03/27 15:15:15 ET]
Table "537485228 61" 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: tueba (43801 in chips)
Seat 2: Chip_Coach (72870 in chips)
Seat 3: PROTENTIALmn (55157 in chips)
Seat 4: erimus14 (86235 in chips)
Seat 5: metotti999 (59373 in chips)
Seat 6: fishi28 (22430 in chips)
Seat 7: tmb_bulevar (59976 in chips)
Seat 8: Aggro Santos (66298 in chips)
Seat 9: smlpok17 (73268 in chips)
tueba: posts the ante 250
Chip_Coach: posts the ante 250
PROTENTIALmn: posts the ante 250
erimus14: posts the ante 250
metotti999: posts the ante 250
fishi28: posts the ante 250
tmb_bulevar: posts the ante 250
Aggro Santos: posts the ante 250
smlpok17: posts the ante 250
Aggro Santos: posts small blind 1000
smlpok17: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to erimus14 [Qs Js]
tueba: folds
Chip_Coach: folds
PROTENTIALmn: folds
erimus14: raises 2000 to 4000
metotti999: folds
fishi28: folds
tmb_bulevar: folds
Aggro Santos: raises 6550 to 10550
smlpok17: folds
erimus14: calls 6550
*** FLOP *** [ 10s 2c 9h]
Aggro Santos: bets 11615
erimus14: calls 11615
*** TURN *** [10s 2c 9h] [2s]
Aggro Santos: checks
erimus14: checks
*** RIVER *** [10s 2c 9h 2s] [8s]
Aggro Santos: bets 43883 and is all-in
erimus14: calls 43883
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Aggro Santos: shows [As Ad] (two pair, Aces and Deuces)
erimus14: shows [Qs Js] (a flush, Queen high)
erimus14 collected 136346 from pot
Aggro Santos finished the tournament in 93rd place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 136346 | Rake 0
Board [10s 2c 9h 2s 8s]
Seat 1: tueba folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 2: Chip_Coach folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 3: PROTENTIALmn folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 4: erimus14 showed [Qs Js] and won (136346) with a flush, Queen high
Seat 5: metotti999 folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 6: fishi28 folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 7: tmb_bulevar (button) folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 8: Aggro Santos (small blind) showed [As Ad] and lost with two pair, Aces and Deuces
Seat 9: smlpok17 (big blind) folded before Flop
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imo:
1) wouldnt be calling the rr for 10k odd more with that hand as you are behind to soo many ranges and basically hoping to flop 2 pair, lucky trips or monster disguised straight.
2) once youve called pre the flat on flop is my play as wouldnt want to be getting it all in.
But hey what do I know!! :-\
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Most appropriate use of the word villain - this Aggro Santos guy is a bad man.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2035603/Aggro-Santos-charged-raping-women.html
(http://i873.photobucket.com/albums/ab297/mporter123/imagesCAYXLDNG.jpg)
Think opening the hand is fine but am folding to the three bet - hand does not play well against his range. If we were a bit deeper then this is the type of situation where a 4 bet is sexy. Not 4betting here though as we would then be priced into calling a shove and it all gets a bit messy.
Am getting it in on the flop, we have overs, backdoor spades and a straight draw. Couldn't hope for much more and don't see any need to play it slow. If we do flat the flop then I understand the check back on the turn. Against this opponent, I like a slow roll on the river, timebank it and chat box action.
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U are no where near deep enough to peel here. Might just stick it in his eye considering his 3 bet %
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Not convicted yet Mark. He may be, but currently the facts are disputed.
I"ve met him a couple of times, but just through my girlfriend, who is friends with him. She is on the left in the blue top & shorts and the big belt:
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K5ZK2bUETU[/youtube]
Never knew he was a poker player though.
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I"ve met him a couple of times, but just through my girlfriend, who is friends with him. She is on the left in the blue top & shorts and the big belt:
Left... blue top.. shorts...
(http://www.famemagazine.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Ryder-Santos-itv.jpg)
Happy (Mon)days John x
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U are no where near deep enough to peel here. Might just stick it in his eye considering his 3 bet %
This.
Then go "Oh FFS" when he has AA this time.
Then type in "weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee" in the chatbox when you bink.
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Kc
U are no where near deep enough to peel here. Might just stick it in his eye considering his 3 bet %
I like this a lot but I"m a ***** so I"d probably fold to the 3 bet.
As played on flop/turn is cool.
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Hi, would like peoples views on this hand as played by the villain i won the hand on the river but would like peoples views on both parties play, ty in advance
You are more likely to get unbiased responses if you don"t disclose the result in your op. The fact that you showed results will totally skew peoples advise.
As played and irrespective of villains monster holding, you open raise a reasonable hand and face yet another 3b oop versus a serial 3bettor, to allow him to continue to abuse you would be a huge mistake as he steals many of your chip gaining opportunities.
QJs is a nice hand to 4b bluff with, it flops well when called and is easy to lay down on the rare occasion we unluckily run into the top of his range. I like a 4b to ~$22k planning to fold if he shoves.
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I"m with George on this and if he is as aggro as stats suggest then I"m piling on him*
Don"t really like peeling, even with QJs as we are just c/f too many flops. As played pre I would be c/raising the flop.
Don"t really like 4bet folding vs this guy as he is probably likely to jam alot of hands I might actually fold if we jam ourselves.
*be careful relying on these stats if sample size is small though
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Hate the peel pre. Your hand is too weak and you are Out of position. This is a great 4 bet bluff jam spot and I rarely need an excuse to get them in, so this is what I do here.
I don"t agree with 4 bet folding, like Brendan said. I think this uses up too much of your stack. I"d be happy to do this if I was deeper but not with 40 bigs.
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hmmm meh its a good one to question, i"ll try not to get into a essay length reply :)
thats a large 3bet % over mostly i"d presume a small sample, so as a general yardstick i"d half that 3bet% to maybe reflect a better idea of his frequency/range.... so the 8 to 9% area, then all the usual tracker guff, check his fold to 4bet, his 3bet cb %, what sort of cb sizing has he used, have we seen him give up on turns, have a think about the positions he has 3bet u from and others, does the fact now he is 3betting u oop alter his range... blah blah etc etc......... plus add - cos we guesstimate a 3bet% of 8-9% do we think his range is merged or polarised...?
stack sizes make it awkward and its a low buy in, hand strength wise QJs plays well in position, it can flop well and if u think villain may give up after the flop after a small"ish to medium cb on a lot of textures then planning to steal after a turn check, or even a turn/river check is ok imho... given the stack sizes and the buy in, a hand which can flop ok [post flop these guys make the most mistakes] i think i favour flatting IP over 4bet jamming or min 4betting, whether villain is merged or polarised @ this stack size my gut says its probably more +ev to flat out of all the options u had at the time...
mtts = odds smods :) u have to gamble in spots, be it jamming your stack in the opponents eye, flatting 3bets IP or getting creative post flop with complete poop etc etc just don"t get carried away with it and try to have a plan :)
checking out your blog if u are generally making a profit, final tabling a $55mtt and binking 2nd [well done btw] then i"d say there"s probably not to much wrong in your style/approach/strategy and to only make really subtle tweaks to anything areas wise u think u can improve on........
edit - and take Brens point, try not to post the result :)
edit - on his choice of sizing, had it changed or was it consistent? @ this buy in imo the population tendency is to make there 3bet sizing oop a wee bit bigger with there unpaired hands and the smaller sizing is there stronger hands... just summit else to consider when forming a cunning plan ;D
edit - if u thought villains range was polarised/unbalanced and u decided to 4bet bluff i"d prefer to do it with a hand with a ace or king blocker like K5s A3s etc and add them into a 4bet it as a bluff strat.........
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Thanks for all replies plenty to think about and apply in future games. I do need to add the jam it in the eye approach to my game in the correct or incorrect situations and let variance sort it out not being a massive grinder tend to be a bit more conservative.
In the hand being discussed, I did let the villain get to me slightly that"s why I flat called his 3 bet, although putting him to the test with the shove with 30 plus bigs left with Q high a bit too high variance for me, between 20 25 bigs happy to get it in.
I am quite happy with my play, but it is nice to hear peoples views who are bigger winners than I am, it all helps, cheers.
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I don"t agree with 4 bet folding, like Brendan said. I think this uses up too much of your stack. I"d be happy to do this if I was deeper but not with 40 bigs.
I can understand that point Rob. But ;D
Do you think villains range for continuing, is different when we Jam versus when we 4bet to ~$22K
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I don"t agree with 4 bet folding, like Brendan said. I think this uses up too much of your stack. I"d be happy to do this if I was deeper but not with 40 bigs.
I can understand that point Rob. But ;D
Do you think villains range for continuing, is different when we Jam versus when we 4bet to ~$22K
V good question ( I"d love you in my maths class :))
short answer: yes
I just think the 4 bet gives the villain a chance to 5 bet bluff. It depends on what level you put the villain on, i,e. does he think that hero is only 4 betting because he keeps getting 3 bet?
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I can understand that point Rob. But ;D
Do you think villains range for continuing, is different when we Jam versus when we 4bet to ~$22K
V good question ( I"d love you in my maths class :))
short answer: yes
I just think the 4 bet gives the villain a chance to 5 bet bluff. It depends on what level you put the villain on, i,e. does he think that hero is only 4 betting because he keeps getting 3 bet?
Villain is in a tough spot when we 4b, essentially its fold or jam for him and imho he very seldom, possibly even never bluffs us here.
So, what hands are in his 5b jamming range that fold when we 4b jam?
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I can understand that point Rob. But ;D
Do you think villains range for continuing, is different when we Jam versus when we 4bet to ~$22K
V good question ( I"d love you in my maths class :))
short answer: yes
I just think the 4 bet gives the villain a chance to 5 bet bluff. It depends on what level you put the villain on, i,e. does he think that hero is only 4 betting because he keeps getting 3 bet?
Villain is in a tough spot when we 4b, essentially its fold or jam for him and imho he very seldom, possibly even never bluffs us here.
So, what hands are in his 5b jamming range that fold when we 4b jam?
I think I see where you are going here.
Are you saying that, by 4 betting (being prepared to fold) and giving the impression that you aren"t folding (which putting a quarter of your stack in probably does) then the villain can only 5 bet the top end of his range?
I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let ithose hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.
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I think I see where you are going here.
Are you saying that, by 4 betting (being prepared to fold) and giving the impression that you aren"t folding (which putting a quarter of your stack in probably does) then the villain can only 5 bet the top end of his range?
Pretty much, if as I suspect villain only continues with something like QQ+,AKs,AKo irrespective of whether we jam or min 4b then we survive when we find the top of his range, without impacting on our bluff success rate.
I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let ithose hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.
Given stack size and the tough spot we put villain in, a 5b bluff is super unlikely. Not saying it won"t ever happen but its gonna likely be seldom enough to not be a significant factor.
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i think you are giving villains far too much credit, especially a $5 aggro-villain. In my experience the QQ, AK range is far too tight and i think they may 5bet bluff when they dont realise they are bluffing ie jam 8s etc. But meh this depends on your type of aggro-donk. This is why is just prefer not to level myself against these guys and just jam it or fold
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I like the fact that i am understanding what Brendan and Rob are saying for once, still to scared to read Nobles input though :"(
Brian.
I raise, then i flat call, then i dont fold at any point, then i bink the river. Or i dont bink the river and i swear to never play online poker again as it is rigged.
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I like the fact that i am understanding what Brendan and Rob are saying for once, still to scared to read Nobles input though .
lol :)
Is villain Merged or Polarised? at villains stack depth and @ this buy in i"d favour Merged :)
A merged range contains only value hands [in villains mind] and and very few bluffs, these players will be less errr ahemmm competent than a polarised 3bettor, in a $5 mtt they view most of there hands as for value no matter what happens :) thus 4betting them will get very few folds, so we should only 4bet with our value hands, we have little to no fold equity with our 4bet bluffs against players like this..
Quote from: Swinebag22
I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let those hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.
as above - AQ AJ 88 etc in villains view/mind these are value hands, a player who only 3bets merged in their $5 mtt brain is only 3betting for value thus making 4bet bluffs pretty pointless...
fold to the 3bet we lose 2bb is ok, call for 3bb more with position with more equity against the whole of villains merged range is ok ev wise,
4bet bluffing or 4bet jamming will show the worst ev if u are going to judge solely on the maths...
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Quote from: Swinebag22
I would say that, if the villain interprets the 4 bet as a cheap attempt to combat his 3 bets then he may jam his small pairs + AQ, AJ and (if he is a loon) possibly some suited connectors. However, I doubt Brian has 4 bet much, so if villain is decent he would probably let those hands go and just 3 bet him the next time and see what he does then.
as above - AQ AJ 88 etc in villains view/mind these are value hands, a player who only 3bets merged in their $5 mtt brain is only 3betting for value thus making 4bet bluffs pretty pointless...
From this I glean that you have villain firmly in the "overrates hands and is 100% 3 betting for value so will never fold to 4 bet" category?
Provided as read in the OP we have..
Villain stats are 32/28
Now we don't know what the sample size is but even so, that villains vpip and pfr are so close suggests to me that we are dealing with a somewhat competent player.
Also,
3bet 18%, he has 3b a couple of times from the button
Suggests we are not dealing with a level 1 "my cards are pretty" type player. So, we can be exploited and continue to fold to his many 3 bets, or we can adjust our range and play back at him.
Worst case we induce some action when we 4b a monster..
fold to the 3bet we lose 2bb is ok, call for 3bb more with position with more equity against the whole of villains merged range is ok ev wise,
4bet bluffing or 4bet jamming will show the worst ev if u are going to judge solely on the maths...
Pretty sure albeit intuitively, that 4b is +EV in this spot. Would love you to fire some numbers at it though
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bloody HUD lol , scrap the bloody thing :)
villain could be quite easily be getting hit hard by the deck... question for u Bren, can u recall ever playing a villain in a $5 mtt with a 18% 3bet stat over say 150 hands... if say the sample is over 40 hands then villain has played 13 hands 7 of which would of been 3bets, are we saying that no one ever gets a good run of cards over 40 hands...
thats why i like to at least half the 3bet stat to at least get a approximation of what villains true 3bet% could/met be in cases where u dealing with such small sample sizes...
Pretty sure albeit intuitively, that 4b is +EV in this spot. Would love you to fire some numbers at it though
your intuition maybe a little off :)
there are plenty other stats to consider with that bloody HUD :) check the fold to 4bet etc.. i wish someone would start a thread on how to get reads without using a HUD :) is it becoming a lost art?
DeanP made a valid point also don"t u think?
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bloody HUD lol , scrap the bloody thing :)
villain could be quite easily be getting hit hard by the deck... question for u Bren, can u recall ever playing a villain in a $5 mtt with a 18% 3bet stat over say 150 hands... if say the sample is over 40 hands then villain has played 13 hands 7 of which would of been 3bets, are we saying that no one ever gets a good run of cards over 40 hands...
thats why i like to at least half the 3bet stat to at least get a approximation of what villains true 3bet% could/met be in cases where u dealing with such small sample sizes...
Pretty sure albeit intuitively, that 4b is +EV in this spot. Would love you to fire some numbers at it though
your intuition maybe a little off :)
there are plenty other stats to consider with that bloody HUD :) check the fold to 4bet etc.. i wish someone would start a thread on how to get reads without using a HUD :) is it becoming a lost art?
DeanP made a valid point also don"t u think?
Of course, you make good points as does Dean. But both your points are largely predicated on categorizing the villain as a low level thinker. Yes sample size can be misleading especially for the 3b stat, but vpip and pfr become statistically significant very quickly.
If villain was 32/5 for example I"d certainly agree on your assessment but 32/28 vpip/pfr are a good indicator of an aggressive style, especially so when coupled with a high 3bet frequency.
It would take thousands of hands for villains fold to 4b stat to become anyway significant since we face a 4b so infrequently.
As for reads other than via Hud feedback, other than paying attention to villains play, we could check on OPR (http://www.officialpokerrankings.com/pokerstars/Aggro+Santos/poker/ratings/70CE142C6A184050BCB2DC2359FCF83A.html?t=3) and see that villain has cashes of ~$55k and is certainly not your common-or-garden "$5 mtt brain"
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ohhhhh u mean this guy - http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/members/257650/ - marge147
a vital bit of advice imho Bren, Hero should check opr beforehand.... as to villains 3bet oop with that sizing @ his eff stack size - 3rd time is the charm :)
i still think u r interpreting the hud stats to literally Bren :) the most vital stat for the HUD is the number of hands stat, without it we won't know whether or not we have a relevant sample size... the VPIP and PFR stats get close enough/converge enough to have a good idea of the approx true VPIP @ around the 30 to 50 hand area in cash games [thats my opinion btw]
but Mtts are in a whole different ballpark with stack sizes and table postion affecting it all... the extremes are easily spotted but defining player styles amongst the tags and lags is largely useless imo with small hand samples... positional stats along with any notes of hands seen would help... there can be a huge difference from a 3b range from the btn compared to the 3b sb range...
meh :)
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Yeah OPR"d him after and I"d probably just fold to the 3bet in all honesty or jam if we had some sort of history I could rely on.
In fact I think villain is playing the UKIPT next week on the same starting day as me, maybe I"ll ask him what his 3b/5b jamming range is lol.
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Would love you to fire some numbers at it though
Putting/risking 25% of our stack doesn"t seem optimal to me,
I"ll need to have a think about this post Mark but for now, my intuitive response/ focus is on this part specifically.
In a large field online mtt, is it possible to go really deep/ win if we adopt a strategy of only ever choosing the optimal move?
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i think you are giving villains far too much credit, especially a $5 aggro-villain. In my experience the QQ, AK range is far too tight and i think they may 5bet bluff when they dont realise they are bluffing ie jam 8s etc. But meh this depends on your type of aggro-donk. This is why is just prefer not to level myself against these guys and just jam it or fold
I see what you did there.
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Gonna make some assumptions that I suspect are reasonable....
- Villain is decent.
- We could well be at this table with villain for quite some time.
- Villain is likely to continue to abuse us.
- Our potential for gaining chips is compromised considerably if we respond by tightening our open range.
- We are more interested in a deep cash than laddering.
will the gain or loss from the 4bet bluff make any difference?
We can.....
- Shrink our ranges and bleed our stack adversely afffecting our potential for a deep run.
- Wait for a monster, essentially the same thing but we get lucky and find a monster, we play back and villain folds versus our tight image.
- Wait for a monster, again, the same thing but we get lucky and find a monster, we play back and villain holds a real hand to pay off versus our tight image. Nice life but unlikely.
- We play back at villain light so he doesnt exploit us, picks on the easier targets and is more likely to get it in when we have a monster.
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The stats of 32/28/18 are indicating an aggressive opponent (likely to be a thinking player), the obvious question here has already been asked, how many hands is this over. Noble, I get what you are saying about looking at the HUD stats, fold to 4-bet etc and what we know about our opponent but unless we have a lot of hands on the player in question then these stats are not likely to be very useful. VP$IP & PFR become accurate pretty quickly. We also seem to be at the stage of the tournament where it is an ideal time to pick up chips with small raises. So if he has been at the table only during recent levels I think the stats are accurate. I would still look at fold to 4-bet but not attach that much significance to it.
I don"t like calling here, we are making the hand really hard to play post flop and allow ourselves to make lots of mistakes even in position. If we don"t flop a pair we are going to have to fold and even when we do flop top pair we are still behind to a lot of the hands he continues with against us so there are reverse implied odds here.
I want to just fold and move on as I have only lost 4K and given that it is likely to be +cEV online to make some good min raises and fold to a 3bet most of the time in these spots I am normally happy enough to do that. The problem we have is that our opponent seems to be exploiting us as the OP stats he has three bet us "a few" times. A few times is a lot, and the three bet % is very high, it"s a great 4-bet bluff spot for sure. A 4-bet to about 21K feels about right, people just do not 5-bet bluff with no good reason to do it (and there rarely is one). In fact people generally don"t 4-bet bluff so the villain has no reason to think we are doing so based on the OP and can only continue with the top of his range. JJ+ and AK (so about 3% of hands).
By my calculations we have 18800 in the pot and we need to risk 17K to try and win it. If we give him a 3-Bet% of say 10% and think he can only continue with the hands mentioned above then we are +EV. We are basically saying he will fold 70% of the time and shove/call 30% of the time, the real figure is probably closer to 60/40 taking into account loose peels and 5-bet bluffs but this is still +cEV.
Also fwiw people keep saying this is a $5 MTT, it"s a $5 rebuy which does make a difference.
will the gain or loss from the 4bet bluff make any difference?
No
But the OP suggests that this is not an isolated 3-bet (if it was we should just fold) and out opponent is not allowing us to pick up the chips we want too at this stage, we need to defend against that.
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Most appropriate use of the word villain - this Aggro Santos guy is a bad man.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2035603/Aggro-Santos-charged-raping-women.html
(http://i873.photobucket.com/albums/ab297/mporter123/imagesCAYXLDNG.jpg)
Not Guilty.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2318950/Former-Im-A-Celebrity-contestant-Aggro-Santos-guilty-raping-girls-hotel-rooms-gigs.html