Amateur Poker Association & Tour

Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: AAroddersAA on August 31, 2012, 15:53:37 PM

Title: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: AAroddersAA on August 31, 2012, 15:53:37 PM: 180 Man Turbo Tournament on Pokerstars

50 players remaining, I have a top 10 stack average is around 5.5K.

PokerStars - $2.28+$0.22|300/600 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

MP+1: 11,772.00
CO: 1,043.00
BTN: 5,675.00
SB: 5,880.00 (Playing 15/12)
Hero (BB): 11,566.00
UTG: 6,055.00
UTG+1: 8,198.00
MP: 6,519.00

MP+1 posts ante 50.00, CO posts ante 50.00, BTN posts ante 50.00, SB posts ante 50.00, Hero posts ante 50.00, UTG posts ante 50.00, UTG+1 posts ante 50.00, MP posts ante 50.00, SB posts SB 300.00, Hero posts BB 600.00

Pre Flop: (1300.00) Hero has 8s 8h

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 5,830.00 and is all-in, Hero ????
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: Paulie_D on August 31, 2012, 15:58:29 PM: Now here I reluctantly fold....I"m comfortably positioned to get much deeper.

Am I ahead of his likely shoving range?....50/50 I"d say and I don"t need to be silly at this stage.
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: AMRN on August 31, 2012, 16:15:53 PM: a loooong way out from the bubble, this might be a great spot to call imo.

We need to consider the tendencies of the SB though - how often does he shove when it"s folded round to him? A decent player will be shoving super-wide in the SB when it"s folded round - so we now have to decide if he"s a decent player or not... if he"s a nit, then it"s a fold, but if he"s a good reg, it"s a snap call.
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: Marty719 on August 31, 2012, 16:18:36 PM: Must be a snap, esp with antes.
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: mal666 on August 31, 2012, 17:02:35 PM: Snap !
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: WYoung83 on August 31, 2012, 17:25:20 PM: i call quite easily here.
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: Paulie_D on August 31, 2012, 17:26:36 PM: I must be a nit...but that"s nothing we didn"t already know. :)
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: dwh103 on August 31, 2012, 17:52:38 PM: Easy call.

Maths:

Effective stacks are ~6.78 adj BBs (basically factors in Antes) therefore a Nash shoving range is 66.4% http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/hucalculator.html?action=calculate&r=6.78. This assumes the BB also calls optimally with a 49.9% range. In reality, calling ranges are wayyyyy too tight, so he"s probably justified with jamming ATC. SB stats of 15/12 suggest TAG and perhaps competent enough to not turn this spot down.

88 has 63.94% equity vs a 66.4% range, and 69.16% against ATC. Even against an uber-nitty range of any pair, broadway and A8+ you"re 53.3%

Phil Ivey does not have a big enough edge to turn down this spot with the tournament average stack of 10BBs. There is far more value in getting to 30BBs here yourself and having a buffer to allow you to abuse the hell out of the bubble when it arrives.
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: Fatcatstu on August 31, 2012, 18:14:09 PM: It is folded to SB, who shoves.

Sod maths. I have a pair.

Right in your eye sir.

Lose to k3o
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: deanp27 on August 31, 2012, 22:42:18 PM: snap his cock off
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: Swinebag on August 31, 2012, 23:59:13 PM: nearer the bubble you can justify a fold (just) but happy to call this off
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: BOINGBLITZ on September 02, 2012, 01:33:13 AM: Call.....if you are passing in this spot in a turbo, then don"t play turbo"s.....IMO ;D
Title: Re: Call/Fold Here - another one
Post by: KarmaDope on September 02, 2012, 16:57:02 PM: Easy call, esp bvb, im assuming hes a reg from his stats you give and the shoving range there for them is MASSIVE.