Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: pokerpops on September 17, 2012, 14:57:30 PM
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If you haven"t seen the original post please have a look there before reading on.
http://www.apat.com/forum/index.php?topic=12018.0
To recap for those who have responded on stage one..
£100 FO
49 entries
22,000 starting stack
Level 5 150/300/25
Villain 1 utg - 50,000
Villain 2 cutoff - 20,000
Hero SB - 24,000
History - Villain 1 is a local regular who both Villain 2 and I see as a target. He"s hit a lot so far today including a flopped straight when he raised 64 from utg and called a 3 bet from Villain 2...
Villain 2 is likely to be calling light.
I"ve been very active thus far and my image may be more aggressive than it could be. I"ve actually had a lot of premiums. QQx2, KKx2, AA and a lot of AK/AQ so my 3bet stats are pretty high. I haven"t tangled much with Villain 2, other than having 3bet KK from the blinds and made a delayed c bet on an AKx9 board. He folded, accusing me of having a set of nines...
utg raise to 700
folds to cutoff who calls
I 3 bet to 2425 with Ah A s (views on raise size?)
Villain 1 thinks for a while, then calls.
Villain 2 calls pretty quickly
Flop 8s Js 8c
I lead for 3300 (views here too - is open shoving an option?)
Villain 1 makes it 7000
Villain 2 calls
Back to me...
So - and I"m not happy about this, but I flat called the raise. (potential stakers look away now). tbf it was an extra 3700 into around 25000 with potential outs to the second nuts and a chance that it would slow down on the turn...
Turn was 10h
I check,
Villain 1 leads for 7000
Villain 2 shoves for 10200
Back to me and all options are open again
call/shove/fold?
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As played, I fold...
...but the flat call was horrible.
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The 10 is somewhat inconsequential - can"t really see either of them have Q9, 79, or TT in this spot.
10k to win ~47k - not sure I can fold now.
There"s a good chance we"re dead to the All-In V2 at this point, but could still be ahead of V1 - trouble is that if you shove now and V1 folds, you lose the entire pot to V2.... so perhaps a smallish re-raise to create a side pot against V1 that you can then shove into on the river for value?
btw - hate the call :)
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Don"t hate the call. Fold now though
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A call can be ok if you have a solid read that one or both opponents are drawing and pot committed on the turn. You can then flat and get it in on a non-spade turn. You still get the same value, but save chips if you fall behind.
Of course you have the As, so your read would need to be perfect - and I don"t think it can be in this spot. Turn decision would be marginal given you"d have up to 9 outs.
Back to the hand. Nothing has changed, a fold here is dreadful given your flop call.
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A call can be ok if you have a solid read that one or both opponents are drawing and pot committed on the turn. You can then flat and get it in on a non-spade turn. You still get the same value, but save chips if you fall behind.
Of course you have the As, so your read would need to be perfect - and I don"t think it can be in this spot. Turn decision would be marginal given you"d have up to 9 outs.
Back to the hand. Nothing has changed, a fold here is dreadful given your flop call.
Elaborate
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A call can be ok if you have a solid read that one or both opponents are drawing and pot committed on the turn. You can then flat and get it in on a non-spade turn. You still get the same value, but save chips if you fall behind.
Of course you have the As, so your read would need to be perfect - and I don"t think it can be in this spot. Turn decision would be marginal given you"d have up to 9 outs.
Back to the hand. Nothing has changed, a fold here is dreadful given your flop call.
Elaborate
Based on you"re calling the flop in the assumption you"re ahead. No spade has turned and effectively nothing has changed. 97, Q9 and TT get there ofc, but in a bet+raised board these are a distinctly small % of the range you"re up against. Its too narrow a range to suddenly hero fold against unless other info (tells etc) has presented itself.
Personally I"ve already shoved or folded (my pref) flop. If I do call, it"s specifically to pass on a spade turn. Therefore I call again here.
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As played, I fold...
...but the flat call was horrible.
Why?
Nothing has changed from my post on the last thread. If I have somehow ended up here I still think I fold. Really though if I called the flop I should call this turn I suppose.
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Calling turn because you"ve called flop as "nothing has changed" is flawed thinking. A lot has changed. Poker is a game played through the streets and by calling the flop we have one more street of info.
We now have a situation where we have two all in"s and imo someone has an 8 which doesn"t leave us very many outs- granted there is a helluva lot of money in the pot and ingame I might sigh call (which by the way I think is an understandable mistake) but I would still fold here knowing most of the time I"m beat. Someone who is better than me at the maths (noble1 maybe) can probs do some sums. It"s probs close between and call/fold but I"m calling due to the maths, not because I called flop therefore I should call turn
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Calling turn because you"ve called flop as "nothing has changed" is flawed thinking. A lot has changed. Poker is a game played through the streets and by calling the flop we have one more street of info.
We now have a situation where we have two all in"s and imo someone has an 8 which doesn"t leave us very many outs- granted there is a helluva lot of money in the pot and ingame I might sigh call (which by the way I think is an understandable mistake) but I would still fold here knowing most of the time I"m beat. Someone who is better than me at the maths (noble1 maybe) can probs do some sums. It"s probs close between and call/fold but I"m calling due to the maths, not because I called flop therefore I should call turn
Not flawed at all. But I was on my iPhone in the middle of a tournament so maybe the point I was making didn"t come across right. The fact that "nothing has changed" is based solely on maths and that your turn decision should be trivial as this hand is decided on the flop.
The stacks are far too shallow to play through the streets - there is little to none extra information gained on the turn as a result. A bet goes in on the turn - so what? This should not come as a surprise and future chip investments should be factored into the flop decision making.
Assuming a 9 handed table, on the flop you"re calling 3700 into 25100, or 6.8:1 express odds. But this isn"t the end of the action, so you can"t use this figure for meaningful calcs in this situation. Better to assume that Villain 2 is all-in (he has 50% of his stack in the middle, after a bet and a raise on the flop - a fair assumption to say he"s committed). You"d have to call 13900 into 35300, or 2.53:1.
Oddwise:
Best case scenario) You make the call on the flop, no more money goes in and you go to showdown. You get 6.8:1 on a call that is the last action, and you"d need to win the pot 12.8% of the time to break even.
Worst case scenario) You make the call, Villain 2 jams turn 100%. This is effectively giving you 2.53:1, or you"d need to win 28.3% to break even.
Actual scenario - and most likely scenario imo) Both Villains get it in on the turn. If you all get Villain 2"s stack in you"re now investing 13900 into 45500, or 3.27:1. If you get your extra 4k in vs Villain 1, it"s 17900 into 49500, or 2.76:1.
Your true odds lie somewhere between best and worst, but I think we can agree that we can expect significant further action. If you allow for that in your odds calc your final odds will likely be in the region of 2.5:1 - 3.5:1 (very generous estimate for the upper bound).
Why call flop? Because Hero thinks he"s ahead/a call is sufficiently +EV - If you call flop, where you can estimate the true odds on your money as above, and then fold the turn where:
- only 3 hands have overtaken you, none of them likely.
- it"s impossible to narrow down ranges further on the turn given stacks are so shallow.
- Villain 2 is committed, future action being relatively easy to predict, and...
- you"re getting better odds on the turn than you realistically were on the flop.
That"s what I mean by dreadful. The maths hasn"t changed from flop to turn, the range of hands beating you has barely changed. The reason you called on the flop hasn"t actually changed.
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a couple of observations,
3 bet pots tend to play out reasonably honestly.
Multiway pots with Villain1 type players also tend to play out in a straightforward manner.
Villain2"s cold flat of the flop check raise is super strong on that wet flop, assuming he is somewhat competent.
As far as the maths, on the turn we need 18% - 22% to breakeven, villain1 check raise reps lots of strength yet villain2 flats for a large % of his stack leaving slightly more than a pot sized bet behind. Are their really many hands we beat in his range given preflop action?
It"s tough to range villain2 wide enough for calling to be correct, he"s basically got to have at least some potential for QQ or AJ in there so as to price us in.
Villain2"s line really looks like JJ to me, again, assuming he is somewhat competent. Tough spot!
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wow you"re in a pickle here David ;D
plenty of replies to get you thinking fella, my tuppence worth is more aimed at how you arrive to your reads and how you plan out your lines of play.. BUT rather than write an essay :) watch this video more than once - http://www.flopturnriver.com/poker-videos/NL-Holdem-Poker-Video-NHC023.php
approx 26mins in when Sauce has 77, listen out for his thoughts on making and planning his intended plays from the flop..
watch the whole video because he nearly goes through every basic concept in poker lol plus explains his thought process and how he applies them really well... there"s another observation somewhere in the video in how he arrives at assuming the level of thinking of opponents [then the opponent clears off lmao]
yes i know its cash but i think a lot of mtt players can benefit from playing cash games well :P
on the hand if i haven"t a clue where i am then i"d mostly bet fold flop and every so often do the occasional bet 3bet jam ;D if my gut thought something was up ;) mostly fold though especially if i think i can pick up chips in other ways :-X
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Calling turn because you"ve called flop as "nothing has changed" is flawed thinking. A lot has changed. Poker is a game played through the streets and by calling the flop we have one more street of info.
We now have a situation where we have two all in"s and imo someone has an 8 which doesn"t leave us very many outs- granted there is a helluva lot of money in the pot and ingame I might sigh call (which by the way I think is an understandable mistake) but I would still fold here knowing most of the time I"m beat. Someone who is better than me at the maths (noble1 maybe) can probs do some sums. It"s probs close between and call/fold but I"m calling due to the maths, not because I called flop therefore I should call turn
I think in game I can fold the turn a lot easier than I can fold the flop. Which kind of backs up what George has said here.
But should we not have been pretty much expecting this to happen when we called the flop? Should we not be calling intending to stack off or folding on the flop?
I so confused *lol*
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Some really good replies here. Thanks all. dwh"s maths made interesting reading and is I am sure a great basis for decisions in the long run. Noble always provides food for thought as do George, Rob dean and rodders. Sorry if I missed a contributor.
When George is posting fold, and then changing his view to call I know how tough this spot was.
I called flop with the thought that V1 could check the turn with a lot of hands having seen his raise called by both V2 and me.
I can then c/f or c/c the river dependent on whether it"s a spade or some other scare card.
When the action went as it did I figured I can"t be ahead of both players and the side pot is with V1 and small, so fold now makes sense. I still had a recoverable stack and room to use it.
I made the wrong decision on the flop. I bet with a view to crai, but then V2 muddied the waters and created doubts. The turn action muddied it even more and I made the wrong decision on the turn too. But I think I made it for good reasons.
V1 had Kd Kc and thought he was ahead
V2 had Jc 10c and had a monster draw that missed on the river.
I was not happy.
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Some really good replies here. Thanks all. dwh"s maths made interesting reading and is I am sure a great basis for decisions in the long run. Noble always provides food for thought as do George, Rob dean and rodders. Sorry if I missed a contributor.
When George is posting fold, and then changing his view to call I know how tough this spot was.
I called flop with the thought that V1 could check the turn with a lot of hands having seen his raise called by both V2 and me.
I can then c/f or c/c the river dependent on whether it"s a spade or some other scare card.
When the action went as it did I figured I can"t be ahead of both players and the side pot is with V1 and small, so fold now makes sense. I still had a recoverable stack and room to use it.
I made the wrong decision on the flop. I bet with a view to crai, but then V2 muddied the waters and created doubts. The turn action muddied it even more and I made the wrong decision on the turn too. But I think I made it for good reasons.
V1 had Kd Kc and thought he was ahead
V2 had Jc 10c and had a monster draw that missed on the river.
I was not happy.
V2 has two pair and no flush/straight draw? Otherwise that"s a surprising hand for him to show up with - if I see him play a hand like that earlier on in the tournie then I"m jamming it in his eye on the flop in this particular hand. Really like the idea behind Villain 1"s play though!
Moral of the story is to always have a plan as far as is possible. Betting with a view to CRAI and changing your mind there is absolutely fine, as significant new information has presented itself. If you can, with a reasonable degree of certainty, predict future action then you need to be ready for it.
Obviously depends on how you personally view the subsequent bets, if you see the turn action as significant/unexpected, then that"s your read (you"re the one at the table, no substitute for that!) - personally I"m expecting the turn action and have already allowed for it in my flop decision.
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Posted the reveal on the phone and messed up
V2 had 9s 10s for OESFD
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yep what a pickle of a situation David :)
as long as you remember that the important factor in making your flop decision is how you fare equity wise versus an opponent's range and keep in mind how they [style of the opponent] and there ranges will react to your bet sizing, especially so with yourself oop then you won"t go far wrong [to often :)]...
its very much a read dependent situation, i don"t know what your thoughts are on checking the flop here to extract value on board textures like this versus whatever type/style/ability of player but it"s worth pondering, studying up on or discussing with your poker buddies imho...
also with your reads at the time and in hindsight do you think this might of played out differently with different bet sizing pre or on the flop cbet size David?
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yep what a pickle of a situation David :)
as long as you remember that the important factor in making your flop decision is how you fare equity wise versus an opponent's range and keep in mind how they [style of the opponent] and there ranges will react to your bet sizing, especially so with yourself oop then you won"t go far wrong [to often :)]...
its very much a read dependent situation, i don"t know what your thoughts are on checking the flop here to extract value on board textures like this versus whatever type/style/ability of player but it"s worth pondering, studying up on or discussing with your poker buddies imho...
also with your reads at the time and in hindsight do you think this might of played out differently with different bet sizing pre or on the flop cbet size David?
Putting the villains on a range here was part of the problem. Specifically V2, given he had shown signs of calling light because he fancied his ability postflop.
I"m happy with the preflop bet size, I think V1"s flat is interesting with KK given his stack and his read that he was ahead because "you"d raised a lot from the blinds". I had, but I had been a bit blessed with starting hands. Again, V2 got in the way with his flat call. HU vs V1 the hand plays very differently I think.
Bigger c-bet? Hmmm, maybe, making it somewhere around 60% pot is committing me and as it turns out that"s no bad thing.
Most discussion from here in is always going to be result-affected, but the thread has provided a lot of food for thought and is an added situation to relate back to in future similar spots.
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U got the perfect storm here. Think most of the time ur beat in one spot
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Calling turn because you"ve called flop as "nothing has changed" is flawed thinking. A lot has changed. Poker is a game played through the streets and by calling the flop we have one more street of info.
We now have a situation where we have two all in"s and imo someone has an 8 which doesn"t leave us very many outs- granted there is a helluva lot of money in the pot and ingame I might sigh call (which by the way I think is an understandable mistake) but I would still fold here knowing most of the time I"m beat. Someone who is better than me at the maths (noble1 maybe) can probs do some sums. It"s probs close between and call/fold but I"m calling due to the maths, not because I called flop therefore I should call turn
A call can be ok if you have a solid read that one or both opponents are drawing and pot committed on the turn. You can then flat and get it in on a non-spade turn. You still get the same value, but save chips if you fall behind.
Of course you have the As, so your read would need to be perfect - and I don"t think it can be in this spot. Turn decision would be marginal given you"d have up to 9 outs.
Back to the hand. Nothing has changed, a fold here is dreadful given your flop call.
ok some food for thought :)
if villain2"s 3bet flat range ip looks something like this - JJ-66,AQs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AKo 5.4% [49 combos] don"t worry to much as you can widen and narrow as much as you like and still come to roughly the same conclusions...
on a flop of Js 8s 8c what will he likely fold given the action pre and post and he"s not some kind of NUTTER? 66 77 99 TT AQs AKs JTs AKo
and continues given the action with - JJ,88,T9s,98s,87s
villain1"s min re-raise of our cbet on the flop maybe - JJ+,88,QsTs,Ts9s,98s,87s
Board: Js 8s 8c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.834% 53.60% 01.23% 119068 2739.50 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 21.133% 20.65% 00.48% 45871 1074.50 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 24.032% 22.32% 01.72% 49571 3814.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
but we call the re-raise, what will our equity look like on various non spade cards?
Board: Js 8s 8c 2h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.949% 55.74% 01.21% 5759 125.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 20.374% 19.74% 00.63% 2040 65.00 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 22.677% 20.84% 01.84% 2153 190.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board: Js 8s 8c 5c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.966% 56.77% 01.20% 5865 124.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 19.590% 18.99% 00.60% 1962 62.00 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 22.445% 20.64% 01.80% 2133 186.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board: Js 8s 8c 7d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.424% 73.30% 01.12% 6681 102.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 05.223% 05.18% 00.04% 472 4.00 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 20.353% 19.19% 01.16% 1749 106.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board: Js 8s 8c 10h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.660% 59.83% 01.83% 5629 172.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 15.742% 15.26% 00.48% 1436 45.00 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 22.598% 20.29% 02.31% 1909 217.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board: Js 8s 8c Qd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.231% 55.96% 02.27% 4936 200.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 04.739% 04.69% 00.05% 414 4.00 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 37.029% 34.72% 02.31% 3062 204.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
how about a spade turn?
Board: Js 8s 8c 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.581% 52.67% 00.91% 5442 94.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 23.156% 22.75% 00.40% 2351 41.50 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 23.263% 21.95% 01.31% 2268 135.50 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board: Js 8s 8c 7s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.083% 66.25% 00.83% 6845 86.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 09.872% 09.84% 00.03% 1017 3.00 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 23.045% 22.18% 00.86% 2292 89.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board: Js 8s 8c 10s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.586% 53.13% 01.45% 4530 124.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 23.428% 22.99% 00.44% 1960 37.50 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 21.986% 20.09% 01.89% 1713 161.50 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board: Js 8s 8c 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.872% 52.98% 00.89% 4762 80.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 19.331% 18.91% 00.42% 1700 37.50 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 26.797% 25.49% 01.31% 2291 117.50 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
Board: Js 8s 8c Qs
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.087% 51.70% 01.39% 4321 116.00 { JJ, 88, T9s, 98s, 87s }
Hand 1: 09.955% 09.92% 00.04% 829 3.00 { AhAs }
Hand 2: 36.959% 35.53% 01.42% 2970 119.00 { JJ+, 88, QsTs, Ts9s, 98s, 87s }
by calling virtually every card in the deck bar an ace jack or eight gives you less equity - 7/47 or basically 15% chance of a A J or 8 100-15/15=5.66 to 1 against....
you can put in tptk and whatnot into the villain ranges and allow for some NUTTER play but the reads don"t really indicate pure spew so mainly the maths will still point towards a losing play if you call flop and call or bet turn or check fold turn on various turn cards spade or non spade...
regarding the the chances of trips for two villains/opponents depending on there flat 3bet ranges then with there whole range on the flop you will be facing trips upto approx 16 to 25% of the time, of course after you bet and they flat or re-raise this percentage goes up rather :)
oop and scratching your bonce, calling the flop re-raise after the action? hmmmm no ta :)
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by calling virtually every card in the deck bar an ace jack or eight gives you less equity - 7/47 or basically 15% chance of a A J or 8 100-15/15=5.66 to 1 against....
you can put in tptk and whatnot into the villain ranges and allow for some NUTTER play but the reads don"t really indicate pure spew so mainly the maths will still point towards a losing play if you call flop and call or bet turn or check fold turn on various turn cards spade or non spade...
regarding the the chances of trips for two villains/opponents depending on there flat 3bet ranges then with there whole range on the flop you will be facing trips upto approx 16 to 25% of the time, of course after you bet and they flat or re-raise this percentage goes up rather :)
oop and scratching your bonce, calling the flop re-raise after the action? hmmmm no ta :)
Against the tight range you"ve input (which is basically the ranges of two absolute rocks), of course any blank turn will destroy your equity - especially as against those range running spades are our second most likely way of getting there. Against a wider and more accurate range these figures would look much better - Villain 1 is definitely a nutter according to the OP!
Regardless, getting chips in after the flop re-raise is likely to be bad - definitely agreed and that any realistic maths will show this.
However I"ve been playing devil"s advocate here, if you have a read where you can skew Villains" ranges away from JJ and 8x - for whatever reason, I"m not saying it"s reasonable or realistic - then you can call the flop reraise, and therefore the turn. It"s the only way you could call the flop, and if this is your reasoning, then you must continue on the turn.