Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: mporter123 on July 15, 2013, 00:15:17 AM
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PokerStars Hand #101392156184: Tournament #757078225, $8.00+$0.80 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (40/80) - 2013/07/14 18:20:16 WET [2013/07/14 13:20:16 ET]
Table "757078225 7" 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: rafalskyyy (2190 in chips)
Seat 2: jeramm (11054 in chips)
Seat 3: Sumer_link (4084 in chips)
Seat 4: 1molylepke (3980 in chips)
Seat 5: luccaspie (1785 in chips)
Seat 6: laydown666 (3300 in chips)
Seat 7: Mark_Port157 (3020 in chips)
Seat 8: 6yJIb6off (2600 in chips)
Seat 9: CharlieC80 (1188 in chips)
laydown666: posts small blind 40
Mark_Port157: posts big blind 80
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mark_Port157 [Kh As]
6yJIb6off: folds
CharlieC80: folds
rafalskyyy: raises 80 to 160
jeramm: folds
Sumer_link: folds
1molylepke: folds
luccaspie: folds
laydown666: folds
Mark_Port157: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [8c 4d Ah]
Mark_Port157: checks
rafalskyyy: bets 187
Mark_Port157: calls 187
*** TURN *** [8c 4d Ah] [5s]
Mark_Port157: checks
rafalskyyy: bets 448
Mark_Port157: calls 448
*** RIVER *** [8c 4d Ah 5s] [9s]
Mark_Port157: ???
PokerStars Hand #101393050924: Tournament #757079548, $15.00+$1.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2013/07/14 18:38:21 WET [2013/07/14 13:38:21 ET]
Table "757079548 113" 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Mark_Port157 (3260 in chips)
Seat 2: hajete (2435 in chips)
Seat 3: Aleks_310177 (2970 in chips)
Seat 4: neckbr4ke (3015 in chips)
Seat 5: platenik69 (3000 in chips)
Seat 6: QuizaH (6555 in chips)
Seat 7: TuTeCalmes! (2965 in chips)
Seat 8: morc1us (2845 in chips)
Seat 9: AlbertSHG (2955 in chips)
Mark_Port157: posts small blind 15
hajete: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mark_Port157 [Ad Kc]
Aleks_310177: folds
neckbr4ke: raises 30 to 60
platenik69: folds
QuizaH: folds
TuTeCalmes!: folds
morc1us: folds
AlbertSHG: folds
Mark_Port157: calls 45
hajete: folds
*** FLOP *** [Kh 7d 2c]
Mark_Port157: checks
neckbr4ke: bets 93
Mark_Port157: calls 93
*** TURN *** [Kh 7d 2c] [4d]
Mark_Port157: checks
neckbr4ke: bets 223
Mark_Port157: calls 223
*** RIVER *** [Kh 7d 2c 4d] [As]
Mark_Port157: ???
Hand 1 - Villain is playing 14/14 over 79 hands and is a decent winner in these games.
Hand 2 - Villain is playing 20/12 over just 25 hands. He is a HSMTT"er and crushes with >$2.3 million in cashes.
River approach?
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In both hands I like leading, I think we"re ahead of ranges in both at showdown and I don"t want to let our opponent get to showdown cheaply.
Hand 1 - I like 999 just because a lot of players will bet that if they have paired the 9 on the river and you are slightly more likely to get a call from a weaker ace. I would also call a shove as we have disguised our hand very well here and to the opponent it probably looks like we have something along the lines of 8x/9x and Ace-rag.
Hand 2 - The pot is 782 but I actually like an overbet line here, I just cant decide whether to bet small to induce the shove (which is probably the better value line here) or just to open shove as if you had missed the flush draw. In game I probably make it 345/call but do we think an overbet works?
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i"d probably bet/fold in both spots. Probably bet smaller (in relation to pot) in hand 1 than I would hand 2.
However could check hand 2 OTR as he is more likely to bluff/value bet that card, then decide whether to call or raise (raising could be a bit thin and will depend if any history)
Like Pre in both cases to btw.
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In both hands you have effectively slow played - so in hand 1 you are probably ahead and in hand 2 you have virtual nuts.
Hand1.
Stack size is the issue here with the villain being the effective stack. By my calc. Pot 1630 Villain 1395 left. So any bet you have to call a shove imo. 3 options - check, small bet /call a shove, shove. Likely ranges of utg raise and 2 streets of betting - A high (Q/J), Big pair (less likely with turn bet and his stack), bluffs which are now beating you, bluffs which have missed, sets (statistically unlikely). Most likely I think is AQ/AJ, and I think you have to bet what you think he will call. I think he has virtually committed himself with the turn bet and shove looks more like a bluff rather than 600, so its a shove for me. If he has you beat he was shoving anyway and you would have to call and you would still have 10 BB left.
Hand 2
Pot 782 Villain 2654 left.
Here not so committed as previous hand.
Here I think his likely ranges are AK,AQ,AJ,KQ,KJ, JJ -55-(no sets) , other bluffs. AA/KK so unlikely can ignore. Small sets relatively unlikely can also ignore so you have the virtual nuts. Of this range, IMO If he is checked to he is only likely to bet AK, sets (for value) or bluffs. So I think you need to bet for value of the most likely holdings - broadway hands (but slight doubt about raising utg+1) and big aces (although he would have to have been bluffing turn) . I think he would may only call about 300 with KQ/KJ. So IMO I would make pot bet and shove to any raise.
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Hand 1:
I presume there must be a reason why you"ve not 3b? I personally 3b at least pot+extra pre. Even though his OPR and stats suggest he"s pretty straightforward nitty early in tournies, you need to raise an amount to manage the effective stack sizes - i.e. make it as easy for you to play as possible (you don"t want to be making it 6x OOP when he"s playing 27BBs). Could even stick it in his eye depending on how he analyses 3b sizing, though need some history there for that.
A large lead on the river is horrible (unless Villain is an utter moron, in which case I refer you back to not 3betting pre - which this guy isn"t). Can"t fold anything better out, and you stop him bluffing. Villain may call with AT-AK, but these hands may value bet anyway so no need for you to bet. Clear check/call with an under-repped hand would be the standard line, but you could block bet against a straightforward opponent.
Hand 2:
Playing OOP, vs a strong, probably multi tabling opponent with a HUD. Don"t mind a peel as much here! Villain only has 25 hands on you, so you can probably level him a bit here given your pre-flop play. He won"t stack off light and will probably be following his standard strategy.
As played, Villains range is fairly wide, and the river card is a perfect barrel card for him if he"s bluffing. Almost impossible for you to have the Ace, so I"d expect his bet frequency to be near 100% here - assuming he tries to take you off what appears to be mediocre showdown. Therefore lead overbetting is horrible (sorry Adam). It"s normally for value anyway and you don"t have the history/dynamic to sell it in any other way to a strong player.
Check-raising river is not an option if he"s REALLY good (we only ever CR 2 pair+, so his calling range only includes AK/set/unlikely straight), so it"s a case of do we get more if we check/call or block bet to rep KQ/KJ etc and induce a raise. It"s a tough spot, he may not try to take us off our hand (I hope you tanked on the turn) in either situation, or value raise with KQ or a rivered Ax if we do block bet. I keep changing my mind with what I prefer - probably a check as there"s a chance of an overbet from him with Ax.
On a general point, I think you"re taking pot control and disguise a little too far with these hands Mark. You"re losing value pre in hand 1 where stack sizes are more than workable in your favour imo and in hand 2 I don"t think you"ve taken advantage of an awesome spot on the turn to check-raise.
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On a general point, I think you"re taking pot control and disguise a little too far with these hands Mark. You"re losing value pre in hand 1 where stack sizes are more than workable in your favour imo and in hand 2 I don"t think you"ve taken advantage of an awesome spot on the turn to check-raise.
Disagree :)
In both hands:-
- We are in the early stages of an MTT, pre antes, no real dynamics to speak of with villains
- We are facing an early position raise
- We are out of position
- We are against villains that are both very good
I think calling both hands > 3 betting.
you need to raise an amount to manage the effective stack sizes - i.e. make it as easy for you to play as possible (you don"t want to be making it 6x OOP when he"s playing 27BBs). Could even stick it in his eye depending on how he analyses 3b sizing, though need some history there for that.
Yes, in hand 1, villain has a shorter stack and raise getting it in is "easier" but I am not convinced its right.
Why would we ever check raise the turn in hand 2? Does that not just fold out all his barrel bluffs?
I think these hands are interesting, feel like lots of options open on both rivers.
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I agree with pretty much everything Dave has written.
In the first, only Check/Call will do, ainec. If you bet now he will assume that you have middle cards with 2P minimum and he can either beat that or he can"t. You are getting nothing extra if you win and you will lose more if you lose. The only way to win more is to Check/Call, which is also the safest option.
In the second, the best way to pick up some chips is to bet. Your hand is so under-repped that you are likely to be called by any Ax or Kx. If you don"t bet, it is too easy for him to check behind with Ax/Kx.
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Some relevant info missing here Mark...
Hand 1
Is villain positionally aware and what are his pfr stats for all positions?
Villains flop and turn cb"s are quite small, any reads or previous betsizes?
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Hand 1
Don"t think check call is an option, a large part of his range ( >50%) is made up of one pair hands like Kx and 88-QQ and villain will check back these hands ~100%.
He may not call a bet either but we still should bet and its very close between bet/call and bet/fold assuming villain never bluffs.
I like leading the river for ~290 he may call with some of Kx and 88-QQ and will call all top pair hands AJ,AQ,ATs-AQs.
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He may not call a bet either but we still should bet and its very close between bet/call and bet/fold assuming villain never bluffs.
If he never bluffs, what do you reckon he bets back with that we are beating?
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Some relevant info missing here Mark...
Hand 1
Is villain positionally aware and what are his pfr stats for all positions?
Villains flop and turn cb"s are quite small, any reads or previous betsizes?
He seems aware:-
Early position - 13/13 - 24 hands
Mid position - 5/5 - 19 hands
Cut off - 11/11 - 9 hands
Button - 33/33 - 9 hands
SB - 33/33 - 9 hands
He has Cbet 100% of flops (only 3 hands). Below hand stands out as interesting. No reads otherwise on bet sizing.
PokerStars Hand #101389365773: Tournament #757078225, $8.00+$0.80 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2013/07/14 17:19:08 WET [2013/07/14 12:19:08 ET]
Table "757078225 7" 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: rafalskyyy (2880 in chips)
Seat 2: jeramm (3020 in chips)
Seat 3: Implos1ve (3120 in chips)
Seat 4: 1molylepke (2970 in chips)
Seat 5: AmanoJaku NL (2950 in chips)
Seat 6: laydown666 (2970 in chips)
Seat 7: Mark_Port157 (3170 in chips)
Seat 8: 6yJIb6off (2920 in chips)
Seat 9: CharlieC80 (3000 in chips)
Mark_Port157: posts small blind 10
6yJIb6off: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mark_Port157 [7c 9s]
CharlieC80: folds
rafalskyyy: raises 40 to 60
jeramm: calls 60
Implos1ve: folds
1molylepke: folds
AmanoJaku NL: calls 60
laydown666: folds
Mark_Port157: folds
6yJIb6off: folds
*** FLOP *** [3d 2h 8d]
rafalskyyy: bets 107
jeramm: calls 107
AmanoJaku NL: calls 107
*** TURN *** [3d 2h 8d] [Tc]
rafalskyyy: bets 358
jeramm: raises 358 to 716
AmanoJaku NL: folds
rafalskyyy: folds
Uncalled bet (358) returned to jeramm
jeramm collected 1247 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1247 | Rake 0
Board [3d 2h 8d Tc]
Seat 1: rafalskyyy folded on the Turn
Seat 2: jeramm collected (1247)
Seat 3: Implos1ve folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 4: 1molylepke folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 5: AmanoJaku NL folded on the Turn
Seat 6: laydown666 (button) folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 7: Mark_Port157 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: 6yJIb6off (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: CharlieC80 folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
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He may not call a bet either but we still should bet and its very close between bet/call and bet/fold assuming villain never bluffs.
If he never bluffs, what do you reckon he bets back with that we are beating?
Probably not a single hand that we beat tbh John, so yes, a clear bet fold.
What hands do you think he bets when we check?
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Disagree :)
In both hands:-
- We are in the early stages of an MTT, pre antes, no real dynamics to speak of with villains
- We are facing an early position raise
- We are out of position
- We are against villains that are both very good
I think calling both hands > 3 betting.
Hand 2, for sure. Not a problem there. You"re so much deeper and your opponent is better. Hand 1, I"d take issue with all those points.
1 - What stage of the MTT doesn"t matter (aside from there are no ICM considerations). Finding profitable spots and his stack size does, and its just 27BB.
2 - All your other points are correct, turning it around - why do you want to play postflop, OOP against a player you consider to be good, when stacks aren"t deep? Conventional logic suggests you should be shortening the pots out of position.
3 - And is he actually that good? The other hand you"ve posted looks horrific to me! Looks like he"s getting chips in when he shouldn"t be, which would add weight to a 3b with AK.
4 - What range do you give him for his EP open in the AK hand?
you need to raise an amount to manage the effective stack sizes - i.e. make it as easy for you to play as possible (you don"t want to be making it 6x OOP when he"s playing 27BBs). Could even stick it in his eye depending on how he analyses 3b sizing, though need some history there for that.
Yes, in hand 1, villain has a shorter stack and raise getting it in is "easier" but I am not convinced its right.
Why would we ever check raise the turn in hand 2? Does that not just fold out all his barrel bluffs?
I think these hands are interesting, feel like lots of options open on both rivers.
In Hand 2, on the turn, Villain is either:
- Betting for value
- Bluffing with complete airball (Ax, QQ, 89 etc etc)
- Bluffing having picked up additional outs
1 - Likely includes KQ+. Weaker Kings are unlikley, though possible to retain control of the pot with the intention of checking river.
2 - Good players will not be looking to run triple barrel bluffs against solid (or nitty ;)) players who"ve called two streets on a dry board, when they can only rep a really tight range themselves. Of course you"re folding out these hands, but they"re likely not betting the river unless they"ve improved to a hand that beats you.
3 - Whilst a second barrel on a dry board with air isn"t out of the question, they are 100% certain to barrel if they pick up extra outs on the turn. A turned diamond draw is a decent part of his range, and you can obviously get some value from this on the turn.
The only problem with a check-raise is that you"re not actually in immense shape against his vbet/call range. So if he"s solely value betting, then you should just call down (incl. river). However the check-raise does fold out hands like 33, KJ that you"re giving a free shot to draw out, gets value from diamonds, probably KQ. If beat you can potentially save more chips by CR/fold than calling turn and river.
You"re fortunate in a way that one of just 3 cards has come that he could conceivably use to triple barrel bluff against you.
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He seems aware:-
Early position - 13/13 - 24 hands
Mid position - 5/5 - 19 hands
Cut off - 11/11 - 9 hands
Button - 33/33 - 9 hands
SB - 33/33 - 9 hands
He has Cbet 100% of flops (only 3 hands). Below hand stands out as interesting. No reads otherwise on bet sizing.
The small sizing on the flop & turn can be weak hands betting for thin value or milking bets with a set, not that many sets in his range though. Versus your weak line either are plausible though I suspect with a set villain may bet slightly more to aim for a river spr of 1 or less.
I suspect an opening range of AA-77,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs = 11%, would you agree?
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Saw this at lunch but didnt have time to reply, and was going to make a long post but seems everything has been covered.
You"ve massively underrepped your hands and chk/call is the best option in both, as played.
I also think chk/raise on turn in hand 2 is a must, but dont mind the nittier line.
Cant image villian slowing down on river in hand either as the board is great to fire 3 barrels.
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The small sizing on the flop & turn can be weak hands betting for thin value or milking bets with a set, not that many sets in his range though. Versus your weak line either are plausible though I suspect with a set villain may bet slightly more to aim for a river spr of 1 or less.
I suspect an opening range of AA-77,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs = 11%, would you agree?
I would be surprised if he was opening that wide. Would probably take out these - KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs which I think he folds pre and add in some more pairs. Close enough though.
Any thoughts on the turn in hand 2?
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Hand One
We are only about 28BB deep here. OK I don"t mind the flat call preflop. Given his stats and no other significant reads I would give him an opening range of something like this:-
66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo
That is not perfect but will be close enough for this. There could be more pairs in there maybe. Do we have a fold to 3-bet stat on him although it does not seem worth stealing the pot here, if we 3-bet it is mainly for value anyway but if I 3-bet I want to pick up a few folds along the way as I usually miss the flop here and will be OOP. On the other hand if I 3-bet and hit I have a better chance of getting stacks in with TPTK. I think I like a 3-bet slightly more but flat calling is fine.
From my experience on Pokerstars a lot of players will raise bigger than a min with AA or KK so I think they are less likely, although not impossible.
So we have a pot of 360 going to the flop. The flop is very good for our hand as unless he has AA (which is very unlikely due to the raise size and the fact he can only have one AA combo anyway) or 88 we pretty much should be ahead. I guess a set of fours is not impossible either, just again less likely.
He bets 187 which is basically half of the pot. This does not scream as a value bet to me I would expect him to check back hands like 99-KK and some of his aces most of the time. I think he is c-betting here and would call. Pot is 734.
The turn is a total blank and should pretty much never improve his hand. He again bets pretty small and I would call again I think as the hands he can have are pretty marginal. Any thoughts on raising the turn?
River has not really changed anything pot is 1630 and he has 1395 left behind. Most of his range is checking behind here anyway but some of it might well call a lead. I don"t like any of our options.
Checking means that a large part of his range checks behind. Most pairs and worse aces probably do this.
Betting like 400 means I have to fold if he shoves as I can"t be winning hardly ever. You do NOT have to call in this spot as you are pretty much ALWAYS losing whatever pot odds you have. I don"t think he bluffs very often in this spot, nobody does.
Hands that might call a little blocker bet:- AJ+, KK-TT?
Hands that just fold:- Air and maybe some pairs
Hands that should raise = sets, not really any viable two pair combos
There are a lot of pair type hands and aces that we beat that will call about 400 OTR than combos of air that are going to bluff so I guess I go with that. Combo that call a small bet but should check behind if we check:-
AQ 8 combos
AJ 8 Combos
KK 6 Combos
QQ 6 Combos
JJ 6 Combos
TT 6 Combos
AQ and AJ might bet the river to be fair but the others don"t. I don"t see a decent player bluffing to often on the river either. It"s gets called off far too often by most players.
Conclusion - Bet about 400 and fold to a raise.
Will post thoughts on Hand Two later.
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The small sizing on the flop & turn can be weak hands betting for thin value or milking bets with a set, not that many sets in his range though. Versus your weak line either are plausible though I suspect with a set villain may bet slightly more to aim for a river spr of 1 or less.
I suspect an opening range of AA-77,AKo-AJo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs = 11%, would you agree?
I would be surprised if he was opening that wide. Would probably take out these - KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs which I think he folds pre and add in some more pairs. Close enough though.
Any thoughts on the turn in hand 2?
;D ;D Please ignore all of the strike through comment, came to those conclusions using a mix & match from both hands :-[ :-[
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Checking means that a large part of his range checks behind. Most pairs and worse aces probably do this.
Betting like 400 means I have to fold if he shoves as I can"t be winning hardly ever. You do NOT have to call in this spot as you are pretty much ALWAYS losing whatever pot odds you have. I don"t think he bluffs very often in this spot, nobody does.
Hands that might call a little blocker bet:- AJ+, KK-TT?
Hands that just fold:- Air and maybe some pairs
Hands that should raise = sets, not really any viable two pair combos
There are a lot of pair type hands and aces that we beat that will call about 400 OTR than combos of air that are going to bluff so I guess I go with that. Combo that call a small bet but should check behind if we check:-
AQ 8 combos
AJ 8 Combos
KK 6 Combos
QQ 6 Combos
JJ 6 Combos
TT 6 Combos
AQ and AJ might bet the river to be fair but the others don"t. I don"t see a decent player bluffing to often on the river either. It"s gets called off far too often by most players.
Conclusion - Bet about 400 and fold to a raise.
Agree with all of this logic, but not sure if villain barrels the turn with 99-KK? Villain is said to be a good player and on the very dry turn betting with those hands would be hugely -EV?
So now villains river range looks more like....
AA,88,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,7h6h,7c6c, just threw in two combos of 76s as a random possibility?
76s 2 combos
AA,88 4 combos
for a total of 6 combos that beat us or 20% of villains range. These definitely bet when checked to and raise when we lead.
AK 6 combos 20% of villains range.
We chop with these and villain likely bets when checked to, I suspect villain will raise our lead with this hand >0% but not enough to impact greatly on our decision.
Then we have the stuff we beat...
ATs-AQs, AJ,AQ, 18 combos and 53% of villains range.
Making the following assumptions.....
When we check...
Villain bets AK,AQ,AA,88 and 76s.
Villain always bets ai for 1395.
Villain checks back AT and AJ.
When we bet....
We bet 400.
We always fold to a raise.
Villain always flats with AK,AT-AQ.
EV for checking is +949
EV for betting is +1544
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Checking means that a large part of his range checks behind. Most pairs and worse aces probably do this.
Betting like 400 means I have to fold if he shoves as I can"t be winning hardly ever. You do NOT have to call in this spot as you are pretty much ALWAYS losing whatever pot odds you have. I don"t think he bluffs very often in this spot, nobody does.
Hands that might call a little blocker bet:- AJ+, KK-TT?
Hands that just fold:- Air and maybe some pairs
Hands that should raise = sets, not really any viable two pair combos
There are a lot of pair type hands and aces that we beat that will call about 400 OTR than combos of air that are going to bluff so I guess I go with that. Combo that call a small bet but should check behind if we check:-
AQ 8 combos
AJ 8 Combos
KK 6 Combos
QQ 6 Combos
JJ 6 Combos
TT 6 Combos
AQ and AJ might bet the river to be fair but the others don"t. I don"t see a decent player bluffing to often on the river either. It"s gets called off far too often by most players.
Conclusion - Bet about 400 and fold to a raise.
Agree with all of this logic, but not sure if villain barrels the turn with 99-KK? Villain is said to be a good player and on the very dry turn betting with those hands would be hugely -EV?
So now villains river range looks more like....
AA,88,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,7h6h,7c6c, just threw in two combos of 76s as a random possibility?
76s 2 combos
AA,88 4 combos
for a total of 6 combos that beat us or 20% of villains range. These definitely bet when checked to and raise when we lead.
AK 6 combos 20% of villains range.
We chop with these and villain likely bets when checked to, I suspect villain will raise our lead with this hand >0% but not enough to impact greatly on our decision.
Then we have the stuff we beat...
ATs-AQs, AJ,AQ, 18 combos and 53% of villains range.
Making the following assumptions.....
When we check...
Villain bets AK,AQ,AA,88 and 76s.
Villain always bets ai for 1395.
Villain checks back AT and AJ.
When we bet....
We bet 400.
We always fold to a raise.
Villain always flats with AK,AT-AQ.
EV for checking is +949
EV for betting is +1544
Good post. I agree with you about him being less likely to bet KK to TT on the turn also
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Not read any replies, sorry.
I Like the way you have played both hands so far with great pot control.
For both of them, I think you can get another check call in. However, bet folding the river ( I"m generally poor at this) may be a better option that gives most value as villains will check behind a lot that would call a river bet.