Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: AAroddersAA on July 29, 2013, 11:08:47 AM
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ITM, 2 tables left average of about 16K
PokerStars Hand #98421858780: Tournament #731308728, $2.28+$0.22 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (500/1000) - 2013/05/11 17:49:03 WET [2013/05/11 12:49:03 ET]
Table "731308728 10" 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Hlazor (38006 in chips)
Seat 2: AAADRENALINA (14706 in chips)
Seat 3: bartuxas (4045 in chips)
Seat 4: koikoi781230 (16172 in chips)
Seat 5: 33teetwo33 (15670 in chips)
Seat 6: nkostas12 (21496 in chips)
Seat 7: saldaini5 (13791 in chips)
Seat 8: roger660 (8134 in chips)
Seat 9: gydro88 (14570 in chips)
Hlazor: posts the ante 100
AAADRENALINA: posts the ante 100
bartuxas: posts the ante 100
koikoi781230: posts the ante 100
33teetwo33: posts the ante 100
nkostas12: posts the ante 100
saldaini5: posts the ante 100
roger660: posts the ante 100
gydro88: posts the ante 100
AAADRENALINA: posts small blind 500
bartuxas: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33 [Jc Ah]
koikoi781230: folds
33teetwo33:
What do you do with AJ here and what is your shoving range?
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In early to mid position, I probably shove AJ here.... however I reckon it"s pretty near the bottom of my shoving range in this position.
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How long we got till the clock goes up? :)
I fold here. Would be shoving 88+, AQ+. Probs too tight.
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Probs min raising QQ, KK, AA and AK too. Exploitable ftw.
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Interesting situation here in my IMO. BB is probably committed to calling. Lets assume apart from bb you are only getting called by a hand that is dominating you JJ+,AQ+, by my calc that"s approx 20% chance for 6 players, and against that range you are close to 25% chance of winning. Assume that the BB calls with any 2 cards you have 63% chance against random hand. Ignoring the complication of having 2 or more callers I believe approx. scenario if you push is :
Call by hand other than BB and lose - 15% Lose 15,670
Call by hand other than BB and win - 5% Win 18,070
Call by BB and win - 50% Win 5,445
Call by BB and lose 30% Lose 4,045
Overall chips ev = +62. Very marginal gain in chips but this is before taking into account ICM considerations, so it is a fold for me. I don"t think I like a min raise/fold to shove here. So no shame to folding AJ here IMO.
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might fold this but its borderline. If not folding then I am shoving.
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Six players to act behind us that can decimate our stack or worse.
Any stats on them or history?
Readless I think it"s a clear fold. Live with the usual locals I shove but expect to be behind/dominatd if I get called, but to get it through often enough to make it worthwhile.
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Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.
Never doing anything else.
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Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.
Never doing anything else.
Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?
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Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.
Never doing anything else.
Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?
a mixture of calling stds - http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#KuUI
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Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.
Never doing anything else.
Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?
a mixture of calling stds - http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#KuUI
I"ve had a very quick play with this - assuming that the stack sizes similar to ours will be calling tight, but the big stack and the 2 shorties are calling light. This worked out at -0.10%.
If the big stack is also calling tight (22+,AT+,KQ) - then it is +0.08%.
This is because of the bias against confrontation - yes personally we want them to call with their K4s but we only win the pot <70% of the time when that happens so we have to take that into account.
In this particular case - it is all dependent on our read of the big stack, even though we have a 4bb shorty in the BB. If he is tight, shove. If not, fold. ICM wise even if the BB is calling with any two cards, we make a profit if the big stack is tight, and lose if the big stack calls light.
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Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?
[/quote]
Blatant i dont lose 70 30"s brag ;D
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Awwwww in
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Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?
Blatant i dont lose 70 30"s brag ;D
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Happy to take a 70:30 at this stage surely.
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Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.
Never doing anything else.
Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?
a mixture of calling stds - http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#KuUI
I"ve had a very quick play with this - assuming that the stack sizes similar to ours will be calling tight, but the big stack and the 2 shorties are calling light. This worked out at -0.10%.
If the big stack is also calling tight (22+,AT+,KQ) - then it is +0.08%.
This is because of the bias against confrontation - yes personally we want them to call with their K4s but we only win the pot <70% of the time when that happens so we have to take that into account.
In this particular case - it is all dependent on our read of the big stack, even though we have a 4bb shorty in the BB. If he is tight, shove. If not, fold. ICM wise even if the BB is calling with any two cards, we make a profit if the big stack is tight, and lose if the big stack calls light.
Why do we lose if the BB calls light? Surely if he"s gonna call light then we"re ahead and how can we pass up that opportunity to double? I"m all in here with the number of BB"s that we have. If we want to win don"t agree that this is a fold.
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Not the BB, the big stack. If we bust the tournament now we win about $3. If we dont, we can still win about $120. Our equity if he calls light is not as good as if he folds and we win the blinds uncontested or face the shortstacked BB HU.
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Sorry I meant the big stack. Still don"t get it, but it must be me :D You"re saying that even if we knew we were ahead of the big stack pre flop, we are better off passing as he might get lucky and hit? On that basis would we ever play a hand?
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Sorry I meant the big stack. Still don"t get it, but it must be me :D You"re saying that even if we knew we were ahead of the big stack pre flop, we are better off passing as he might get lucky and hit? On that basis would we ever play a hand?
Nah, definitely not!
What I"m saying is that if we know the big stack is going to call with a lot of hands, we don"t win enough to justify the risk in ICM as chipEV does not equal $EV - the risk of losing all our chips and being eliminated from the tournament is more than what we get when he folds and we win the blinds.
If we know he folds a lot of hands but when he does call, we are dominated, we get him to fold enough times to make this a +EV play despite the fact that we invariably lose when he does call. Hence the silly thing of we want him to be a nit - our main target here is not to double up, it is to take the dead money with as little risk as possible.
(Don"t get me wrong, if I can see he has KT and he is going to call then I shove all day long!!)
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Does anyone consider their M at this stage? It"s only 6.5 and aggression is key at this stage to make the finale table. So many other things to consider outside of the math like our table image, how tight the blinds have been? Have there been many light calls.
Personally I lean towards shove.
If you fold now, then later find you didn"t get many other good spots, would you look back at this hand and think you should have made your move?
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Great posts today Drewski. Please post more in this section.
I will try and respond to some of the points tomorrow.
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Thanks Rodders, not sure why I have not really been posting/visiting at poker forums. So much to learn from reading other opinions etc. Hoping people correct me more than anything :)