Amateur Poker Association & Tour

Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Chipaccrual on August 12, 2013, 14:23:02 PM

Title: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: Chipaccrual on August 12, 2013, 14:23:02 PM
Here"s one for the mathematicians out there.

Horrible exit hand with 20 mins to go in last night"s GPS Day 1a.

3 way allin.  AA v JJ v AJ on a AJ6 flop.

I"m trying to get my head around the odds of top set vs middle set vs top two pair.

I"ve made a go at the calculation over on Blonde and will post it up here later, but does anyone else want to have a go at working out the odds ?
Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: AMRN on August 12, 2013, 14:26:59 PM
As I said on the phone - just work out the equity calculation instead, it"s much easier..... I reckon it"s approx somewhere in the region of 100%/0%/0% on favour of the AA  ;)

Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: Fatcatstu on August 12, 2013, 14:27:19 PM
Expect you to donate 50p to charity for this one :p
Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: Chipaccrual on August 12, 2013, 14:34:08 PM

Expect you to donate 50p to charity for this one :p


I felt a little sick for a few minutes, but got over it pretty quickly.

After all, we all know online poker is rigged and they didn"t want 7 of 18 to make it through to Day 2   ;D


I thought it was 50p for a bad beat, surely this is just a cooler of epic proportions ?
Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: SirPercival on August 12, 2013, 14:35:19 PM
188,353,440 : 1

;)
Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: Chipaccrual on August 12, 2013, 14:36:20 PM

188,353,440 : 1

;)


You are more trusting in your source than I would be  ;)
Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: TheSnapper on August 12, 2013, 15:10:48 PM


188,353,440 : 1

;)


Can you show the formula? ;D
Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: MintTrav on August 12, 2013, 15:34:46 PM
Easy fold.
Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: ian.ski309 on August 12, 2013, 17:01:24 PM
You can use this for two hands at a time :

http://www.thehendonmob.com/pokercalc/
Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: noble1 on August 12, 2013, 18:48:44 PM
if all cards were known, this leaves 46 cards unaccounted for..

C(46,3)=15180

the flop must include one of the remaining aces and one of the remaining jacks, leaving 44 cards

1*1*44

15180/44 = 345

so approx 344 to 1 against

unknown cards pre-flop i"d guess the easiest way of working the probability out then would be to multiply the odds 344/1 by the chance that two players at an X-handed table are dealt pocket pairs by the chance another player has one of each AND by the chance that they all see the flop...

Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: noble1 on August 13, 2013, 03:43:09 AM
http://people.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/index.html
Title: Re: Anyone got a calculator ?
Post by: AceOnTheRiver on August 13, 2013, 21:56:57 PM
Not quite the same % involved but I saw QQ v AK v AQ AIPF at DTD on Saturday.

Obv AQ wins

Live poker = Rigged!