Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: hi_am_chris on July 10, 2008, 10:15:26 AM
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Ok so down to 18 players in a two dollar rebuy on gala poker, tables are currently 9 handed and your second to act with 99, you have a stack of about 120.000 and players have stacks ranging from about 50 k up to 350/400 k ish. Blinds are 10 and 20k, whats the correct play?
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Shove.
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im being results orientated but can u fold that hand in the above situation?
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Shove.
im being results orientated but can u fold that hand in the above situation?
If the result you want is a win, then I dont see how you can fold, you have 5 BB after the next hand..
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I think the 2 factors to consider are:
1. you are very short stacked
2. everybody is short stacked.
As such I think a lot of options could be considered as good valid ways to proceed. Although I think most of them would involve you getting all your money in one way or another.
If your table seems quite lively and you think an all in bet is likely to be called then shoving will probably work, hopefully it will limit the calls to one person.
If your table seems tighter then I would probably limp and hope for a short stack to shove.
If you limp and nobody raises I"d probably shove on the flop.
The only complication I think would arise where you limp and you get 3 or 4 other players limping after you. Judgement after the flop would probably be critical in this case.
The only time I would consider folding with this hand would depend on whether you were looking to cash a bit higher or to win. If you limped and some raisers after you made it clear that you were likely to be all in against 3 or 4 opponents then you are highly unlikely to win, and it is quite likely that at least a couple of players would be knocked out. So the safe option would be to fold your 9"s, but if you want to win overall then I think this would be a great opportunity to gamble - you would be very likely to get knocked out - but if you weren"t then you"d be around the chip lead.
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There might be an argument to fold, although I"d say it"s a weak one. I can"t really see any other play though. Limping is awful, imo.
You are first in with probably the best hand at the moment, and you also have fold equity.
If I was in late position and someone had already moved all-in, then you have a case for the fold.
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I think the 2 factors to consider are:
1. you are very short stacked
2. everybody is short stacked.
As such I think a lot of options could be considered as good valid ways to proceed. Although I think most of them would involve you getting all your money in one way or another.
If your table seems quite lively and you think an all in bet is likely to be called then shoving will probably work, hopefully it will limit the calls to one person.
If your table seems tighter then I would probably limp and hope for a short stack to shove.
If you limp and nobody raises I"d probably shove on the flop.
The only complication I think would arise where you limp and you get 3 or 4 other players limping after you. Judgement after the flop would probably be critical in this case.
The only time I would consider folding with this hand would depend on whether you were looking to cash a bit higher or to win. If you limped and some raisers after you made it clear that you were likely to be all in against 3 or 4 opponents then you are highly unlikely to win, and it is quite likely that at least a couple of players would be knocked out. So the safe option would be to fold your 9"s, but if you want to win overall then I think this would be a great opportunity to gamble - you would be very likely to get knocked out - but if you weren"t then you"d be around the chip lead.
How can you limp and hope to see a flop? What sort of board are you hoping for? Surely limping only gives your opponents the chance to hit the board and then correctly call when you shove on the flop. If there are 3 limpers there"s already 60K in the pot, so you are digging yourself a hole by limping pre.
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I hate limping too and i cant min raise because then i have to call anyway, so its between all in or fold but like you i dont like folding 99 in this situation, what would be the cut off though, would you fold any pair in this situation? i hate shoving 22 -66 in this situation, it seems like you always get called by a pair when you do
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There might be an argument to fold, although I"d say it"s a weak one. I can"t really see any other play though. Limping is awful, imo.
You are first in with probably the best hand at the moment, and you also have fold equity.
If I was in late position and someone had already moved all-in, then you have a case for the fold.
I"d say the stacks are so short that the chances of someone shoving all in are quite high and that everybody would have quite a wide shoving range.
If you limp early and a late position player shoves then you can call them, or if there is a shove and a call then in this position you can still call them and I think there would be a fair chance of being up against 2 Ax"s or an Ax and another pocket pair (whether higher or lower than your 9 I think would be down to luck)
But if you shove then you have got fold equity and you have a fair chance of just picking up the blinds - obviously this is never a bad thing, but I think 9"s in this stage of the tournament with this structure and chip levels are pretty strong and I would want to at least double up, even if that meant doing a risky stop and go and shoving the rest of your chips on any flop.
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How can you limp and hope to see a flop? ...
A) I don"t hope to see a flop, I hope somebody will shove and I can call it. And with stacks this short I think there"s a fair chance somebody will shove in late position.
B) I also said if you think a shove is likely to be called then you should shove - if a limp is likely to be called by 3 or 4 players then a shove would be likely to be called.
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I"d be far happier winning the blinds (that are massive compared to my stack, and everyone else"s) than racing against AQ or similar. Of course, if I win a race I"m happy - but half the time I"ll lose and that"s me shafted.
First in FTW.
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I"d be far happier winning the blinds (that are massive compared to my stack, and everyone else"s) than racing against AQ or similar. Of course, if I win a race I"m happy - but half the time I"ll lose and that"s me shafted.
First in FTW.
That"s the difference then.
I want to, at least, double up - and I"m willing to gamble for it.
It"s not like Kings first hand - winning a gamble here could pave the way for a win. :)
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I"d be far happier winning the blinds (that are massive compared to my stack, and everyone else"s) than racing against AQ or similar. Of course, if I win a race I"m happy - but half the time I"ll lose and that"s me shafted.
First in FTW.
Just had another thought - if they hold, "AQ or similar", they"re probably going to call your all in anyway.
So it doesn"t matter whether they hit the flop or not.
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If you"re not going to shove here, then I"d be interested to know what hand you"re waiting for to get your short stack in with. The blinds will probably have been round a few times, and your stack will be gone, before you get Aces. In this situation, any Ace or any pair, and it"s an auto-shove.
Of course, if it were a satellite and you were a couple of seats away from a prize, then the fold might be the right option, but in a cash tourney I can"t think of a player in the world who would fold here.
The only situation that would ever see me consider folding here is if the UTG moves all in first. I want to get my chips in first, and hope to take down the blinds. At 10k/20k, the pot is already worth a quarter of your stack!
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I"d be happy to take the blinds - but I"d rather double up.
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Any ace is a silly shove imo, id rather shove 78 suited and hands like that, id also rather let the blinds hit me and look to shove ATC from the small blind or button. In the tournament i shoved but i dont know if i would have shoved 66 or lower. If you get called with 66 your pretty much dead and at best racing
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On reflection I agree re any Ace - but in late position in an unopened pot, any Ace would be good enough for me. I"d probably be inclined to push from any position into an unopened pot with any pair though, even 66 - not really much difference between 66 and 99........ if someone is going to call with a big ace, 99 is same odds as 66.
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Agree im shoving any ace from hijack, cut off, button, sb, i just think shoving 99 you might get more hands you dominate calling you, 88 77 maybe 66 and also depending on stacks a9 a8 a7s at a push which are flipping with the small pairs. Some people espec in low buy in tournys cant let go of an ace or a pair.
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I personally think that shove is standard here.
However I do like Jons thinking which, if I"m not mistaken, is to try and get another hand (that is a big dog to 99 and would normally fold to a shove) to shove.
This strategy does have many pitfalls but probably does increase the chances of a double up, and also of busting out.
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my opinion is that if you don"t shove this then you perhaps should take up marbles.
my shoving range may be alot lighter than this in the situation with 6bbs
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My shoving range from late pos is a hell of a lot lighter. I just think you can find better spots to chip up than shoving utg or utg +1 with a small to medium pair. Even if the blinds hit you you still have fold equity and can open shove from late position. I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
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... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
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My shoving range from late pos is a hell of a lot lighter. I just think you can find better spots to chip up than shoving utg or utg +1 with a small to medium pair. Even if the blinds hit you you still have fold equity and can open shove from late position. I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
... and even though I"m not saying that isn"t an unreasonable position to take generally - in this instance you have 6 big blinds! How much better are you going to get in the next few dozen hands?
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hand wise probably not going to get any better but assuming the blinds go through me, hopefully ill get the chance to open shove from late position, anyways i pretty much insta shoved and got called by AA in the bb and the board ran out 34567 (not in that order), happy days lol
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hand wise probably not going to get any better but assuming the blinds go through me, hopefully ill get the chance to open shove from late position, anyways i pretty much insta shoved and got called by AA in the bb and the board ran out 34567 (not in that order), happy days lol
lol - nice result.
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... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
20/52 to hit either a T, J, Q, K or A. Then 3/51 to hit the pairing card....
(52/20) x (51/3) = 44/1 to be up against a pair that dominates 99. With only 8 players to get through, those odds work really well for me.
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Are those the right odds for gala and the pokerroom network tho ... ;D
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... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
20/52 to hit either a T, J, Q, K or A. Then 3/51 to hit the pairing card....
(52/20) x (51/3) = 44/1 to be up against a pair that dominates 99. With only 8 players to get through, those odds work really well for me.
And as well as shoving - this is also the odds that you are up against a hand that dominates you if you limp with 99.
But given the wide range of peoples shoving hands and the short stacks all round - there is a much higher chance that you will get a hand on your table to shove after you limp.
Obviously there is a risk that you will pick up a load of limpers and nobody will raise, there is a risk that even if you only had one limper they might hit top pair, there is a risk that a higher pair will be dealt (like in this case), and there is a risk that any hands you are beating pre flop outdraw you - but I think in this kind of scenario then an opportunity to gamble for a double up against one player, or for the chip lead against many players is too good an opportunity to miss.
But shoving and taking the blinds is the safe option if you"re too risk averse. :)
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Are those the right odds for gala and the pokerroom network tho ... ;D
LOL nice one!!
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... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
20/52 to hit either a T, J, Q, K or A. Then 3/51 to hit the pairing card....
(52/20) x (51/3) = 44/1 to be up against a pair that dominates 99. With only 8 players to get through, those odds work really well for me.
And as well as shoving - this is also the odds that you are up against a hand that dominates you if you limp with 99.
But given the wide range of peoples shoving hands and the short stacks all round - there is a much higher chance that you will get a hand on your table to shove after you limp.
Obviously there is a risk that you will pick up a load of limpers and nobody will raise, there is a risk that even if you only had one limper they might hit top pair, there is a risk that a higher pair will be dealt (like in this case), and there is a risk that any hands you are beating pre flop outdraw you - but I think in this kind of scenario then an opportunity to gamble for a double up against one player, or for the chip lead against many players is too good an opportunity to miss.
But shoving and taking the blinds is the safe option if you"re too risk averse. :)
BUT, shoving rather than limping will give you another chance of winning - people might fold. A shove here could get rid of anything up to AJ for example...... but a limp could potentially put you into a flop against overcards. what would you do if you limped and everyone folded round to the BB.... flop then comes T 8 4.... and he shoves? he might shove there with any two cards and you would have a tough decision. Personally I would prefer to take the decision and the play out of the hand preflop with such a marginal hand
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... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
20/52 to hit either a T, J, Q, K or A. Then 3/51 to hit the pairing card....
(52/20) x (51/3) = 44/1 to be up against a pair that dominates 99. With only 8 players to get through, those odds work really well for me.
And as well as shoving - this is also the odds that you are up against a hand that dominates you if you limp with 99.
But given the wide range of peoples shoving hands and the short stacks all round - there is a much higher chance that you will get a hand on your table to shove after you limp.
Obviously there is a risk that you will pick up a load of limpers and nobody will raise, there is a risk that even if you only had one limper they might hit top pair, there is a risk that a higher pair will be dealt (like in this case), and there is a risk that any hands you are beating pre flop outdraw you - but I think in this kind of scenario then an opportunity to gamble for a double up against one player, or for the chip lead against many players is too good an opportunity to miss.
But shoving and taking the blinds is the safe option if you"re too risk averse. :)
BUT, shoving rather than limping will give you another chance of winning - people might fold. A shove here could get rid of anything up to AJ for example...... but a limp could potentially put you into a flop against overcards. what would you do if you limped and everyone folded round to the BB.... flop then comes T 8 4.... and he shoves? he might shove there with any two cards and you would have a tough decision. Personally I would prefer to take the decision and the play out of the hand preflop with such a marginal hand
Yes - good spot - I did know what the worst case scenario was (and if I was the big blind I would be shoving on any flop).
But the main point is what I"m arguing against - and was Kinboshi"s point.
Yes it would be good to get the blinds - but 99 really isn"t that bad.
(in the absence of the big blind shoving post flop)
(a) I think a shove from a later position player is a fairly good proposition.
Everybody is short stacked and you"ve shown weakness by limping.
The other stacks range from 2.5bb to 20bb, if you are dealt something like A4 you might not be too interested if you are up at the 20bb range - but I think you would be if you were down around the 2.5 - 4 range.
I think players with the lower stack sizes are going to be looking at any ace, any pair and possibly any 2 court cards (if you"re lucky).
(b) Even if you get a limper or 2 - they are likely to miss the flop - shove all in, what are they going to do?
Either they make a completely stupid call with nothing, they think you"ve got nothing and make a slightly stupid call with something like AK (so you"re miles ahead) or they make a sensible fold.
(c) Even if they hit the flop - how confident are they going to be with their bottom or second pair when you push all in.
i.e. The chances of them hitting top pair or two pair - very, very small. If they have a pocket pair, what are the chances they would have limped after you rather than raised or shoved pre flop? Small chance that they might limp with a baby pair and hit trips - but all these things combined - still very small.
(d) If you get 3 or 4 all ins pre flop.
Yes you are likely to lose the hand - but you are still likely to be the favourite (bearing in mind how unlikely it is that somebody will be dealt a higher pocket pair)
and if you win you have the tournament chip lead or up around it.
(e) If you get a lot limpers pre flop.
In this case I think you misjudged the early limp, because if you had shoved I think you would have got a caller - and it"s a double up you need.
Naturally you can misjudge things like this, but as I"ve freely admitted - this limp, shove (or limp, call a shove) play - is a bit of a gamble.
But I think it"s a reasonable gamble to make.
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You haven"t shown weakness by limping - it"s just weak. If I"ve got JT in the BB, you"re giving me a chance to see a flop on the free. I know I"m probably behind someone who"ll limp UTG with only 5xBB, but I"ll be able to push on a favourable flop and make you make a mistake.
Push with 99:
1. They fold, you take the not insignificant blinds.
2. They call with overcards - you"re ahead and have a chance to double up.
3. They call with worse than overcards, and you have a better chance of doubling up.
4. They call with an overpair. You might out draw them.
Except for scenario 4, you"re making them make a mistake. Don"t give them the chance to play "correctly" and instead make you make a mistake.
imo.
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But that only applies to the big blind.
It completely ignores the chances of someone shoving after you, and it completely ignores the fact that whilst it would be good for the big blind to shove post flop on any flop - people mainly won"t do it when they"ve completely missed (which they"re likely to) and/or they"re holding rags (which they"re likely to) - it"s all well and good saying, "if I"m holding JT in the BB" - but you"re much more likely to be holding 10,4 or J5 or similar.
Most of the time in that scenario (IMO) the big blind won"t shove post flop.
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By the way that theory I"ve encapsulated above is also why it"s so hard for Artificial Intelligence to use Game Theory to crack poker - Game Theory assumes your opponent will always make the best move, but a lot of the time in poker they won"t.
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1. They fold, you take the not insignificant blinds.
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I knew there was something I was missing.
I was discounting just picking up the blinds - I don"t care if I just take the blinds, but I"ve only just thought about why.
If you pick up the blinds, you increase your stack by 25% - a sizeable proportion.
However you still only have 7.5 big blinds.
It doesn"t matter what the average stack is, or how much you"ve just increased your stack by -the fact is you are still very short stacked and this is not a good thing.
I"m not going to dislike any time where I increase my stack by a quarter - but at this stage of a tournament with those chip stacks and blinds - I am going to be happy to take a risk to double up. You won"t be in great shape with 12 big blinds - but it will be disproportionately better than if you had 7.5.
And if you don"t get knocked out against more than one player - you"ll be among the chip leaders.
That is where I want to be at that stage of a tournament - among the chip leaders - or out.
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but surely now that you"re at the business end of the tourney, the opportunity to ladder through the money must also be a consideration. If you shove here and just take the blinds, you have not undergone the risk that a flop brings, and have given yourself another orbit for free..... that"s another 9+ hands in which you might catch a monster, or others will get knocked out. (and as you are currently UTG+1, that is actually 16 hands before you are in the BB of the next orbit)
I appreciate that we all play to win, and first place is the ulitmate and primary target, but at what cost? Having played for a reasonable amount of time to get this deep, it could well be beneficial to just take the blinds in this hand, and then watch the carnage happen around you for the next 16 hands.
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but surely now that you"re at the business end of the tourney, the opportunity to ladder through the money must also be a consideration. If you shove here and just take the blinds, you have not undergone the risk that a flop brings, and have given yourself another orbit for free..... that"s another 9+ hands in which you might catch a monster, or others will get knocked out. (and as you are currently UTG+1, that is actually 16 hands before you are in the BB of the next orbit)
I appreciate that we all play to win, and first place is the ulitmate and primary target, but at what cost? Having played for a reasonable amount of time to get this deep, it could well be beneficial to just take the blinds in this hand, and then watch the carnage happen around you for the next 16 hands.
I appreciate that point of view and I can understand it.
If I limped, somebody shoved and he got 3 callers before it came back to me - I would certainly consider folding (with the likelihood that 3 players were likely to be knocked out or crippled in this hand).
But I don"t think I would consider laddering up to much until the difference between each payout was quite considerable (compared to the buy in) - generally I"d say this wouldn"t start until the final table at least.
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That is where I want to be at that stage of a tournament - among the chip leaders (where I want to be) - or out (where I usually am)
FYP
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But that only applies to the big blind.
It completely ignores the chances of someone shoving after you, and it completely ignores the fact that whilst it would be good for the big blind to shove post flop on any flop - people mainly won"t do it when they"ve completely missed (which they"re likely to) and/or they"re holding rags (which they"re likely to) - it"s all well and good saying, "if I"m holding JT in the BB" - but you"re much more likely to be holding 10,4 or J5 or similar.
OK - so they"re holding T4 or J5. You"re giving them a chance to correctly limp and then go ahead.
Most of the time in that scenario (IMO) the big blind won"t shove post flop.
But if they do you"re not laying down your hand, are you?
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But if they do you"re not laying down your hand, are you?
No but I"m confident that most of the time they won"t do it and most of the rest of the time they"re just bluffing (assuming I have something like AK and have missed and will fold).
That is where I want to be at that stage of a tournament - among the chip leaders (where I want to be) - or out (where I usually am)
FYP
:-[
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Essentially I"m just suggesting that in some very specific circumstances [such as this one (if the table was playing tight - which wasn"t specified)] that it would be worth slow playing 9"s.
9"s are the lowest hand I would consider this in any circumstances.
Would you ever consider slow playing Aces in the same position?
or Kings, Queens etc?
What would be the lowest? For me - it"s nines.
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My shoving range from late pos is a hell of a lot lighter. I just think you can find better spots to chip up than shoving utg or utg +1 with a small to medium pair. Even if the blinds hit you you still have fold equity and can open shove from late position. I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
by the time you get to late position you are likely to have paid both the BB and the SB, so will be down below 5bb (don"t know if antes are involved), so your fold equity is further eroded. Plus if you do double up after going through the blinds once or twice, you won"t be in a much better position than you stand now.
good players will know that your shoving range from LP is lighter and may call you lighter in response, a push from here may get more respect. Plus you may fold out hands in MP like AJ who may not want to call you fearing someone wakes up behind with a bigger hand.
all things being equal i think shoving the 99 has to be correct - if you get called by 2 overs and lose a flip, it happens...if you get looked up by a bigger pair then just hope you suck out - but waiting worrying what may happen behind you will mean your chances of placing highly will reduce imo.
unfortunately i have become an expert in playing a short stack ;)
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Shove.
FYP
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Your M is 4.
You shove with any pair!
Your in the BB in 2 hands aswel.
You need to double up and you will need to do it more than once aswel.
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Easy push. The only time you could consider the fold is if UTG shoves first, and even then you may decide to gamble.
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God! I"ve just seen this thread. I can"t believe there has been so much discussion on this, it has to be a defo shove! What the hell are you waiting for! ;)
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no brainer, shove every time , ok if no 1 calls you take the blinds but you also survive to find a situation to shove again...18 left you are now looking to chip up for the final table 99 is only getting beaten by TT+ [5 hands] the majority of the time you will be ahead if anyone calls. Playing it slow is a no no you lose to much equity imo if you get 1 caller and the small blind completes your up against 3 opponents and 99 does not play well in a 4 way pot