My Mum always said, "If you can"t say something nice, don"t say anything at all."
I"m saying nothing! ???
what was your plan for the river if a heart or a 2 didnt come ??
do you think your out of position play will catch on ??
what hands did you put your opponent on ?
did the paired board not concern you at all on the river ??
overall mark for the played hand - 1 out of 10
you get a mark of 1 because you managed to look just as bad as your opponent..
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D :D :D :D :D :D :D
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45o - 0% he would have folded preflop
45h - 0% he would have folded preflop
Axo - 11.36% Already explained that I didn"t take into account that he could be playing A rag from the blinds Even though he wouldn"t be from any other position. I thought he had a high ace
Axh - 9.09% as above
A3h - 4.55% as above
A3o - 4.55% as above
33 - 0% If he"d flopped a set of 3"s or 2"s and was slow playing it then good luck to him
TT - 0% He would have raised pre flop
even A2o - 0% As above with the ace rag
Txo - 11% he would have bet more than the minimum on the flop, people were being very good at protecting their made hands. They weren"t generally playing badly on this table - they were playing tight, and they were playing it well.
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if i were to play your hand at all with your observations of the table dynamics , why not raise pre-flop 4to5bb and punish the limpers [easy 375 chips]
I was mainly doing things like that pre flop if I had a reasonable hand to semi bluff with (like ace rag for instance). In this instance the time to take it down safely would have been to raise to 750 on the flop (for much the same reasoning that I bet it on the turn) - but I thought there were plenty of opportunity here for me to either get away from the hand without betting too much, or to win a bigger pot. (I made a mistake - and that"s how I should have played it without making a mistake)
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the equity you had on the turn was - 3950/750=5.26 so 1/6.26= 15.97% equity
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the equity you had on the turn was - 3950/750=5.26 so 1/6.26= 15.97% equity
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I was just looking at pot odds, I"m not so big on equity calculations.
What did you do here - particularly where does the 6.26 come from?
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the equity you had on the turn was - 3950/750=5.26 so 1/6.26= 15.97% equity
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I was just looking at pot odds, I"m not so big on equity calculations.
What did you do here - particularly where does the 6.26 come from?
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equity - 6.26 comes from the 5.26 to 1 odds u were getting on the turn , u add 5.26 to the 1 = 6.26 then to work out your equity you divide 1 by the 6.26 which equals 15.97%
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i"ve been going through a lot of my friends mtt hand histories recently who has just started playing at poker and he plays the 1 and 2$ mtts on stars, one thing i have noticed going through them is the weak play and calling light on the river ...
... but i do find it intresting how u discount all those hands for some1 in the small blind when it only costs them 125 chips to see a flop with a 8000+ chip stack,...
... but looking at his bet pattern, weak lead flop check raise turn ... those hands i give him are quite reasonable for his position in the hand and how quite a lot of players at this level play them....
JonMW = Legend.
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JonMW = Legend.
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Why would you want to spoil my fun and end the argument prematurely?
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equity - 6.26 comes from the 5.26 to 1 odds u were getting on the turn , u add 5.26 to the 1 = 6.26 then to work out your equity you divide 1 by the 6.26 which equals 15.97%
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5.26 to 1 odds is a ratio
3950/750 is a fraction
3950/750 = 4.26:1 (work out your "equity" from that)
or you could just stick with -
it costs 750 to call, the pot is 3950
So your pot odds are 750/3950 = 0.18987 or 18.987%
Or you could say 750 is approximately 1/5th of 3750 therefore its probably about 19%
My outs are 11 hearts, 2 6"s and a 2, 44 cards left
Therefore my odds of winning (specifically what I thought my odds of winning were, because I had foolishly discounted the fact he was playing from the SB) are:
15/44 = 0.3409 or 34.09% (or 15 x 2.2 = 33%)
But even if I knew what he had I still had 11 hearts and a 2
12/44 = 0.2727 or 27.27% (or 12 x 2.2 = 26.4%)
Obviously he could have surprised me, if a third heart had come he might still have called my all in - but if I was playing to bluff I would have raised on the flop, and if I was playing with a made hand I would have raised - the only hand that it made sense that I was playing was a flush draw (or a slow played set - either of us could have been doing that).
So whichever way you look at it, the percentage chance to win is larger than the percentage you have to contribute i.e. pot odds - call.
NB: I never said I had 19% chance to win before, I only said I had >19% chance.
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i"ve been going through a lot of my friends mtt hand histories recently who has just started playing at poker and he plays the 1 and 2$ mtts on stars, one thing i have noticed going through them is the weak play and calling light on the river ...
But I"m not talking generally, I"m talking specifically about players I"ve played all the way to the bubble with - that takes a while, and it takes a lot of hands.
... but i do find it intresting how u discount all those hands for some1 in the small blind when it only costs them 125 chips to see a flop with a 8000+ chip stack,...
Not widening his hand range because he was in the small blind was my mistake, but he wasn"t just automatically making up the small blind every round - there was still a fairly tight range he was playing. If he had been automatically making up the small blind every round, I would certainly hope that I would have spotted his much wider range from the SB - but as it was he only had a slightly wider range (which I didn"t spot).
... but looking at his bet pattern, weak lead flop check raise turn ... those hands i give him are quite reasonable for his position in the hand and how quite a lot of players at this level play them....
again I would refer you to the fact that I wasn"t calculating this for "...quite a lot of players at this level...", but for a specific one.
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right jonmw did you notice the $50 pot $5 to call equals 10 to 1 NOT 9 to 1
i can understand your logic as many people mis-understand this,maybe its bad info passed along or to many trips to the bookies.
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as for your hand ranges you was putting him on , you discount nearly every reasonable hand i suggest he would logically raise on the turn with after the weak lead on the flop,, So i ask myself what on earth was you putting him on ???
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But this is where I got the 19% figure from - as you point out the pot odds should actually be 15.95%.
So my call is even more clear cut
With the outs I thought I had I had 15 outs so a 34% chance of winning (with a flush draw)
Therefore I only need a 50% chance that he would fold to a shove on the river if a third heart came. Whereas I think the chance was more like 90%.
The reason he called on the river was because he was playing with the assumption I was on a flush draw - if he had thought about it, my raise on the river didn"t fit in with the flush draw - so it"s possible that he would still have called, but the probability still easily beats the 50% needed.
I didn"t factor into account this probability that he would still call at the time, because I was sure he would fold if a third heart came - but (a) the figures still hold up anyway, and (b) I could still fold and coast past the bubble.
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if you are assuming that your opponent has put you on a flush draw WHY does he only min raise ???
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Level 0: I know nothing
Level 1: What do I have?
Level 2: What does my opponent have?
Level 3: What does my opponent think I have?
Level 4: What does my opponent think that I think they have?
Level 5: What does my opponent think that I think they think I have?
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Good strong play ...
... the fact you still think you played this hand %100 correctly ...
I may not have played this technically correct ;D
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ii. I did make a mistake, I don"t mind admitting that.
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The mistake I made was ...
... my mistake, ...
...(which I didn"t spot)...
... which I didn"t pick up on.
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i do not state what level he is on,...
... i think ... he is still a level 0 thinker.
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... think (I) played this hand %100 correctly ...
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if you are assuming that your opponent has put you on a flush draw WHY does he only min raise ???
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.. i will in future try to pass what knowledge and perspective i have to someone who wants to discuss there hands ,, lesson learnt...
my stats on full tilt poker
MTT MTT SNG HU Satellite Overall
Winnings: $149,613.06 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $149,613.06
Biggest Cash: $132,787.50 Average Cash: $14,961.31
Wins: 2 2.70% Return on Investment: 427%
Seconds: 1 1.35% Avg. Finish: 44/100
Thirds: 0 0.00% Avg. Expectation:
Top Three Rate: 4.05% Avg. Field Size: 1,198
Final Tables: 4 5.41% Avg. Buyins Won:
Cashes: 10 13.51%
Total Played: 74
my cashes are based on big field mtts 600+ official poker rankings has me at 22% combined but my sng single table stats skew the figures........
the reason i put faith into the way i would read someones elses hand history is that generally i"m not far off ,, and as i am working with a friend who is playing a lot of $1 to $2 mtts and i"m going through all there hand histories on my hand replayer just of late, i am quite tuned in to how a lot of these players are playing there hands..
It is amazing how many make similar plays or is it?? because they observe others at this level making plays and getting away with it , unfortunately they start to mimic those plays weather they correct or not and there overall poker game basics are fundamentally flawed....
Solid abc poker with good reading skills are the only skills needed really at the micro levels, if you go beyond this at the lower level buy ins it does not in my opinion help you develop sound fundamentals which you need as a base to go up through the higher levels.. once you have these in mtts [cash is a different beast] i hope to develop my friends poker armory as his game as a whole develops as he does have good poker instincts, they just need reigning in sometimes lol ........
... i am quite tuned in to how a lot of these players are playing there hands..
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Solid abc poker with good reading skills are the only skills needed really at the micro levels, ...
and he played less than one hand a round - did you consider these with your hand range?
Solid abc poker with good reading skills are the only skills needed really at the micro levels, ...
I agree, but if you only use your reading skills to establish if you"re ahead (and stay in) or behind (and fold) then you"re missing an opportunity to gain chips when you"re behind against a weaker opponent.
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and ask yourself do you really concentrate fully at the table when playing and take in all the betting patterns and tendencies of your opponents...
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So jonMW what tendencies do you look out for when you are playing ???...
wow thats a lot of notes , do you get time to write all this down before the next hand is played ??
when i refer to tendencies i mean more of style of play and bad habits they have.
The type of thing that i note is a lot briefer.
Are they aggressive or passive and are they loose or selective.
What is there level of play [all i do is think 1 level above theres to outplay them]
MOST at lower levels are 1 or 2 thinkers 1 being they only think about there hand and 2 being that they do try to think what you have.
I will try to take advantage of players who play out of position to much [i note there positional play]
I look out for players who play over cards on flops and how they play them [i just note it as over values high cards]
i note how often they continuation bet
i note how strong a hand it takes for them to check raise or reraise pre and post flop
top pair donkeys
flush monkeys
Ace rag masters
i also note how strong of a hand they are willing to call raises with [again ties in with loose or selective and also there position]
so in general in a mtt where i am moving tables , i tend to PROFILE players rather than write down how they exactly played KQ,because next time they have KQ the situation and board,opponents can be entirely different.
When i get a feel for there style i can adjust to them based on my position and when involved in post flop play i can get a feel by there speed of action and betting
and i can deduce based on these factors along with the board how strong they are.
I think taking detailed notes are important in cash games as you can hunt your fish down but in mtts i do think developing your profiling skills is much more important.
try it out, just start out by who you think is bad to your right and left and see if you can isolate them and take there chips..
ALSO any book by John Vorhaus imo is worth a read as he tends to favour books about understanding your opponents and he makes you question your game and how your own mood and state of mind can affect your poker..
wow thats a lot of notes , do you get time to write all this down before the next hand is played ??
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Yes, you"re right - all this time I"ve been playing slightly too cautiously as I"ve been using the fraction [call]/[existing pot] - rather than the ratio [existing pot]:[Call]
The name pot odds should really have given me the clue :)This is good because it means I"ll be able to loosen my game up a bit :)
ok here is a tricky ish situation with a medium pair. In a low stakes sng.
you are in the small blind with 99 you have a stack of 1332 and the blinds are 15/30 there is just 1 limper from the cut off position - although early in the sng he has shown he is loose,passive pre but agg post flop, limps pictures and calls raises with them.He has a stack of 955 left.The big blind yet to act is a bad tag player with a stack of 4188 who plays strong draws very agg with no thought to his opponents possible holdings.
So how would you proceed out of position with 99 ??
thx for reply jon,
please check your history files, look for Tournament #113577134 , and we"ll go over your reasoning in that 1........
... a lead on the flop of 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot should get the necessary info but you need the discipline to fold/give up and try to check it down if called imo. Result you still have around 1100 chips,more than enough ...
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i cant say i"m in love with your 5x raise jon out of position to a doof who will most likely call you, i think a 3x raise would be much better.Pot size control being my main concern[only got 75bb at start of sng,99 not being a hand you want to create a large pot with],situation,hand strength and the position you have and also along with it only being at the 15/30 level.
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So jon theres some of my thoughts , hope they help you. Also if you could think up a good strategy to play the double or nothing sng and had the discipline to follow it what would you do different jon to make a profit long term?
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