Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Honeybadg on March 09, 2009, 21:36:16 PM
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I busted out 270th of 1370 with the following ... 150 paid
Blinds 300/600 Ante 60
Early position (35000 chips) raises to 2400 has been raising all sorts or rather a lot of hands. (Mainly successfully "stealing")
Mid position I have JJ (19000 chips) - three people (who can kill me) to act after me.
I have killed a couple of pots with QQ and KK recently (not shown) - with early raisers
I decide to call.
All the rest fold.
Flop is 842 ...
He bets half the pot ... to me this looks like a standard continuation bet ... so I go all in happy to kill the pot ...
He flips 88 ... scream ... no help ...
My gut feel is that I should have gone all in pre-flop ... but not keen on a race nor getting picked up with an over pair (albeit I think I need to ignore this) ...
I would welcome thoughts on this one ...
My take is that he could make his initial raise (very active player) with 66,77,88,99,TT,QQ,AK,AQ,AJ ... actually possibly more! ... so I let him bet out and kill the pot ... and perhaps happy to throw away with overcards ... overcards potentially scary for him too.
Is this getting too tricky ... or just unlucky?
A double up here would have put me 42nd ... on target for $8,750 ... chance for a lot more ...
(Aside I went to bed at about 1am ... work up at 7.30am ... first hand I view is JJ vs 88 ... all in pre flop .... but the flop itself is interesting ... 925 ... 88 feeling potentially good in that hand!
Slightly latter ... 55 pushes into k23 flop and finds AA ... 55 pusher won $75k ... his conqueror $200k ... 55 under no chip pressure ...
The last three featuring an astonishing 33 vs AJ all in race (80 BBs vs 120BBs) ... the 33 holds and then wins with AJ vs TT on the same player ... for an extra $250k ... however much I hate JJ ... I think he hates AJ much much more.
Louis
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dont think you did anything wrong with your JJ - I suspect I would have done exactly the same. Unlucky on getting so close.
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... cheers Steve ... a really tricky spot!
L
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just unlucky i think
he may have folded his 88"s if you shoved pre flop but if there is still a few to act behind you i dont think the call is a bad one
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I would 3 bet pre to about 8k and call a shove
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What George said is probs the premium move, but I would probs have done the same as you cos I,m not as good as him :D
Then having done what you did, the rest of the hand pretty much played itself, good run though.
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... I just had a good chat about this to one of my mates who used to play in my London home game ... 10 years more experience than me ... has cashed at WSOP etc ...
He thought about this for a while and said he would fold the jacks ... (and has done in similar positions) ... his best win is c$40k ... this was the last thing on my mind at the time ... but I think it does make sense ... no risk ... (and at the time no risk required) ... wait for a spot to make the running or for a bigger hand.
The 7000-8000 raise gets you into a lot of trouble if re-raised ... do you just throw it away?
Once the hand is running I am dead! (we agreed on that!)
Interestingly we went on to discuss QQ as a starting hand ... at which point he was still marginal but in the end went for the 7000-8000 bet ...
KK happy with either 8000ish or all in ...
Pretty hard to fold JJ there but good to hear that a very experienced player has done and would do it in that situation.
Interested in further comments on this ...
Louis
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So you"re gonna wait for aces to play this guy?
His stack is huge therefore his opening range is a lot wider, even from utg.
He"s probably opening with all pocket pairs, Probably Ak, AQ, AJ, A10, KQ, KJ etc etc etc
If he"s really tricky he"ll even open with suited connectors out of this stack.
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... I totally agree he has very loose starting criteria ... but if I raise to 7200 he is going to call me I think ...
I was very much siding with going all in on reflection ... so the fold school of thought was not even in my head ... it is not what I expected to hear at all.
Not a case of waiting for Aces ... more that I have an awkward size of chip stack to get involved with.
If smaller a trivial all in ... if large I am happy to call or raise to 7000-8000 and deal with the overcards.
Aside - if re-raised - do you fold or call (would have c11,800 left)
As it happens the flop is going to very likely kill me whatever I do ...
I am sure very few people would fold there ... but a very good player with form would/has ... so I thought an interesting one to flag up ...
L
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Nope I get it in against this villian.
If he is a good player there"s NO WAY he flats- he either shoves/folds
He may flat if he has you crushed but doubtful.
My personal preference is this spot is:
Raise/Call/Fold
If your gonna call you shouldn"t go broke on the 832 flop- surely you"re calling cos you perhaps have him on an overpair so if you shove the flop you"ve turned the hand into a total bluff.
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If your gonna call you shouldn"t go broke on the 832 flop- surely you"re calling cos you perhaps have him on an overpair so if you shove the flop you"ve turned the hand into a total bluff.
so by calling, you are simply set mining with the Jacks? Would you really call, planning to fold if the flop comes 832 and the villain shoves?
If you have him on an overpair, why would you call when the blinds are so large in relation to your stack?
On reflection, I"m shoving preflop in this spot.
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Im not saying your set mining but u do have position- When he c bets you can flat and re-evaluate.
Stack size is awkward post flop but the point Im trying to make is that nothing has changed on the flop. If you"re worried about an overpair perhaps u should fold pre but given his stack size if he has an overpair Im going broke.
Post flop- shoving is bad imo cos it only gets hands that are beating you to fold/hands that are crushing to call except perhaps tens. Unless you have a DEFINATE read that he has raised with two overs than shoving is fine co syou"re protecting your hand but you need to be fairly sure
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... this is good stuff ...
I didn"t think the original raiser had an overpair but I did have three to act after me ... I think I should discount this in any case (do you agree?)
Let"s assume I raise to 7200 ... do I fold to a re-raise from
a/ Those to act after me?
b/ The original raiser?
Aside if he has an overpair ... a high flop might save me my chips.
Why did I call ... to get the cheapest flop and hope I like it ... J is great ... but "he" is going to miss most flops ... and I think when he misses he is going to bet if it is a low flop.
If he has 99 or TT I get all his chips
If he has any two none pair over cards I would likely get 1/2 pot bet
If he has 55,66 I would expect a bet to represent the over pair
As I write this I am thinking it becomes an all in or a fold ...
It comes back to this:
Let"s assume I raise to 7200 ... do I fold to a re-raise from
a/ Those to act after me?
b/ The original raiser?
Let"s start with that bit ... I-Poker $50 re-buy about to get going!
Thoughts much appreciated.
Louis
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... back to this 7200 raise ... let" assume it gets to the original raiser ... what do you think he will call with? He has 32,600 left and needs to call 4,800. He has been raising lots and taking blinds.
For me - calls with:
AK
AQ
maybe AJ,AT,KQ,KJ (suited or not)???
Let"s say he might well fold the rest of the trash he might have raised with.
His 4800 would get 11,100 plus my 11,800 behind if he hits the following
55,66,77,88,99 ... so whilst he doesn"t have the right odds he might well fancy it if he thinks he can push me off other things post flop ...
Does this mean raise to say 9,500 ... though I totally committed now ... just go all in?
L
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His stack size does not matter. Effective stack size is YOUR stack not his. He knows how shallow you are.
If your both deeper he probs calls but he can see you"ve put almost half you stack in pre so playing post flop with 88 is not optimal.
He will either shove for a flip or fold
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... if he shoves ... do you call?
L
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After three betting yes
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... same if one of those to act after me re-raises ... in some sort of hideous squeeze ...
L
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I don"t know what the stack sizes are like but once you 3 bet you can"t really fold. Their range is probably QQ+ AK.
Don"t get me wrong Louis- I don"t mind the call. However making the call to keep the pot small and then shoving an 8 high flop doesn"t make sense.
I would flat the c-bet and re-evaluate on the turn.
Also if you flat pre- someone is more likely to try and squeeze both of you out with a bigger range.
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... all criticism taken, appreciated and digested ...
I don"t like the call really(on reflection) ... I think it is an all in for me ... because there is no re-raise I can fold to.
Good poker ...
What are you playing tonight?
L
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Nowt- updating my blog which I"ll get done soon hopefully- playing a fullish schedule 2moz including laddies 550$ final for a 5k WSOP package which I sattied into for 50 bucks
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... how many likely runners and packages for that Ladbrokes thing ... which event is it to ... or can you choose?
Might play a $100 STG as an unofficial satelitte ...
Likely a few of my mates will be around ... to fold their JJs!
L
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Its 5500$ package. You get 7 nights at Caesars plus spendo. You then get 3 chances to qualify for the main event.
Think they"re doing this instead of packages straight into the main event
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its a 3bet and shove spot. Trouble with flatting is that you could let allsorts of hands get in behind you (in the blinds etc) and i think JJ is strong enough to felt with here.
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as played to flop - call and re-evaluate on turn there is no need to end the pot on the flop - [only go all in if you are certain you are ahead and that villain will call it,you need to extract value]
all situations in poker are player read based as is how do you think your opponents view you...knowing how your image appears to others is important in your decision making post flop...it is good being aware of your opponents ranges but useless if you cannot re-evaluate on the streets according to your opponents actions,betting and previous bet patterns...
as said in previous posts above by going all in on the flop [a massive over bet] all you guarantee is that if called it will be by a hand that is beating you...
He thought about this for a while and said he would fold the jacks ... (and has done in similar positions) ... his best win is c$40k ... this was the last thing on my mind at the time ... but I think it does make sense ... no risk ... (and at the time no risk required) ... wait for a spot to make the running or for a bigger hand.
wowser :o is folding jacks good? to a loose ep raiser? [your read] and if you flat call him with a tight image would not a good thinking player see that as possibly a big hand? and leading his set like a basic continuation bet is the perfect way to disguise it [loose image] you played your over pair BAD , try to play the streets a bit more if you are still not sure of his range [you still have plenty play in your stack] i"d suggest you work on trying to control the pot sizes when unsure where you are in a hand, you have position...
read this !! it will give you something to think about as to how far you think you are on reading players and situations.http://www.pokerplayermagazine.co.uk/advancedplay/holdem/1739/playing_the_turn.html
http://www.apat.com/forum/index.php?topic=2316.msg38585#msg38585 - am i wrong to fold here based on the betting actions?
as you may now be experiencing when you are in the 22 to 30bb stack size area it is difficult to play without a good read and 3bets pre with marginal strong hands are best if you think your opponent will fold , YOU are not hoping for a call really !!,and forget shoving 30bb all in pre , that is just weak spewy [note any player if you witness them shoving to steal with 25bb + as like your hand JJ it is usually a bad play with a marginally strong hand or worse]
also a bra on the head works wonders ;D online or live ;D lol lol i just wanted to get in my bra on head advice :o sorry ;)
work on your reading of others pre and post flop and your game will improve...
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Louis
I"m far from being an expert, but thought I"d add my thoughts - you"ve done the same for me before!
I"ve deliberately not read all of the other comments in advance.
I think your stack size makes this a really difficult decision. I don"t think you can call because you don"t have the implied odds to make it profitable - just under 8 times his raise - you"d need to be 100% sure you would double up if you hit a set, which is unlikely. If you call, what flop without a jack do you like and what do you do in each case if - all lower than J and he bets? Or overcards which will come about 60% of the time? I don"t think you would know where you are in either case.
That leaves pushing or folding. If you push you are probably only being called by a hand that beats you, or best case AK for a race.
For a tournamanet this size and a not desperate stack size of over 30BBs, I think a fold would be my choice, but perhaps I"m too tight in these situations as I tend to try to preserve my tournamant life and wait for a better spot.
I"ll go and read the other comments to see if my analysis is going to be slaughtered for being too tight!
Cheers.
Craig
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Just read the comments - looks like I"m in a "tight" minority! I expect my blinds to be stolen from everywhere in future APAT events! :)