Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: AMRN on January 21, 2010, 17:16:14 PM
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I think I have a reasonable handle on STTs, and tend to cash in circa 40% of games, and turn a steady profit over time. Even though it has become a maths game, I try to continually evaluate and improve. I played a hand earlier in a single table SNG that got me thinking about my end-game strategy.
Scenario is as follows: (standard Pokerstars format)
Buy in - $27 (buy in irrelevant for the example, but just trying to set the scene - ie it"s not a $0.10 donkabout)
9 seater
Turbo (5 min clock)
Payout to last three as 50%/30%/20%
Player on the button has open raised 3xBB 7 of the last 10 hands, although only shown QJs, KJo, 87s when knocking three players out. He"s playing loose and fast, and tending to get lucky when called. Player on the BB is tight as a gnat"s ass.
We are down to last three and ITM.
Blinds 100/200/a25
Example 1:
Button 6000
SB 3500 (Me)
BB 3000
Button opens to 600
In SB, I have A3o..... Action?
Example 2:
Button 7500
SB 5900 (Me)
BB 100
Button opens to 600
In SB, I have A3o..... Action?
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Only had a quick think but i think i prefer a fold in the first one, i think you are too likely to get called and best case scenario is 60 40 although the advantage with an ace is you always have one live card so your never usually crushed but i think im looking for a better spot. The second hand i dont think the blinds are big enough to warrant getting involved, let him take a shot at the short stack and then whoop his ass heads up.
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so so 1st -- but I would fold (shock horror)
deffo fold 2nd - cos smally can"t fold and you can then (as Chris says) crush the other eejit HU
but thats just me ;D
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1st hand insta fold.
2nd one is tough but I think I would call and hopefully check it down to eliminate the bb. Probably behind but you can always catch cards. An should bb treble up you still have 4k-5k to play with for a few more orbits
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1st hand insta fold.
2nd one is tough but I think I would call and hopefully check it down to eliminate the bb. Probably behind but you can always catch cards. An should bb treble up you still have 4k-5k to play with for a few more orbits
this one, but saying that I may be inclined to jam in the first example as going for the win is that aim, but it is situational.
2nd one def flat to eliminate the bb
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I think calling the second one most of the time your going to end up trebbling up the short stack or giving 500 more chips that you dont need to give to the big stack, if im him (the big stack) im prob not checking any flop
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50% of the prize pool goes to 1st place - so example 1 I"d jam.
The button has open raised 7 out of the last 10
I can"t really see how people can think that you"d probably get called.
I"d say the most likely thing is he"d fold because he didn"t have a good enough hand to risk over half his stack with, if he did call I think you"re likely to be ahead.
If he"s got a pair or got a higher ace or outdraws you, then never mind - next time in that situation the oppo probably won"t.
Example 2 I"d go with flatting it and trying to knock the short stack out.
Effectively it"s a random hand versus 2 random hands - he"s odds on to get knocked out.
And even if he doesn"t he"s still the short stack by a significant margin.
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... if im him (the big stack) im prob not checking any flop
hence - a good time to float, don"t you think?
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This thread has convinced me there is still value in 1 table sng`s.
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$2000+ profit playing 10-20 euro sit n gos last calender year
mostly 5 man but some 10 or 30 person also
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50% of the prize pool goes to 1st place - so example 1 I"d jam.
The button has open raised 7 out of the last 10
My thoughts too. Jam Example 1 as there are so many hands he just can"t call with, and jamming means the tighty in the BB can"t play unless he has a monster. A3 is going to be ahead of the button"s range so much of the time.
Example 2: Actually I would fold. I would want to avoid the horrible situation where I connect with the flop and end up all in against the button... lose the side pot and get knocked out, but see the shortstack win the small main pot and get to HU.
This thread has convinced me there is still value in 1 table sng`s.
As recently as 6 months ago I could make a decent return on these on Stars.... but it"s getting so damned hard now.
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although I haven"t invested in it it would be worthwhile plugging it into SNG wizard and seeing if each situation is + or -EV. i would easily fold hand 1 and call hand 2 and hope to check it down
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first hand I jam. A3o probably plays ok against his range here and oppo is folding enough times to make this profitable.
second hand - errrr??? If I had more chips than villain, I"d jam again. But we dont so I wont. I"d fold here to preserve my chips for the HU battle.
These are both maths decisions though. Any takers to spew the figures out??
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u got the chip counts right AMRN ? 13500 chips in play in std 9 handed turbo..
Anyhows if i stick the extra on , this what i think -
hand 1 only push - 88+ ATs+ AJo+
hand 2 only push - 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo hand 2 i give a push range of around 14to15% as i think u have far more fold equity..
hand1 i added an extra 1000 chips to the button , if he is a reg i"d expect him to raise around 40% , your equity is to high to push to wide unless u have a good idea of villains call range here..if he is a reg then i"d expect him to call with about 1/2 this range so A3o is a NO NO imho.. Even if i add no chips for hand1 to u or villain i"d still expect BTT to open around 40% of his range but with your equity the push range is still narrow imo around 7%
A3o versus a 20% call range [so he folds 50% of range]
Ac3s - 41.288%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 58.712%
so if he is playing correctly [imo] then opening his top 40% would not be to surprising to see 7out of 10 raises on the button short handed.
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50% of the prize pool goes to 1st place - so example 1 I"d jam.
The button has open raised 7 out of the last 10
My thoughts too. Jam Example 1 as there are so many hands he just can"t call with, and jamming means the tighty in the BB can"t play unless he has a monster. A3 is going to be ahead of the button"s range so much of the time.
Example 2: Actually I would fold. I would want to avoid the horrible situation where I connect with the flop and end up all in against the button... lose the side pot and get knocked out, but see the shortstack win the small main pot and get to HU.
This thread has convinced me there is still value in 1 table sng`s.
As recently as 6 months ago I could make a decent return on these on Stars.... but it"s getting so damned hard now.
I was just saying the same thing to the Mrs last night! ;)
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u got the chip counts right AMRN ? 13500 chips in play in std 9 handed turbo..
13500 is correct. 9 x 1500 = 13500
Anyhows if i stick the extra on , this what i think -
hand 1 only push - 88+ ATs+ AJo+
hand 2 only push - 77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo hand 2 i give a push range of around 14to15% as i think u have far more fold equity..
hand1 i added an extra 1000 chips to the button , if he is a reg i"d expect him to raise around 40% , your equity is to high to push to wide unless u have a good idea of villains call range here..if he is a reg then i"d expect him to call with about 1/2 this range so A3o is a NO NO imho.. Even if i add no chips for hand1 to u or villain i"d still expect BTT to open around 40% of his range but with your equity the push range is still narrow imo around 7%
A3o versus a 20% call range [so he folds 50% of range]
Ac3s - 41.288%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 58.712%
so if he is playing correctly [imo] then opening his top 40% would not be to surprising to see 7out of 10 raises on the button short handed.
Example 1 was the real hand that I played. I figured that Button was raising most hands here - possibly ALL hands (this is the first hand we play since bubble burst). Therefore, I figure that if I shove, he will fold a lot of the time, and if he calls, A3 is ahead of much of his calling range (looking at calls he made in previous hands BEFORE bubble burst). I also figured that as I was fairly equally stacked with the guy in the BB, and I needed to accumulate chips reasonably quickly to win - now that I"ve cashed I"m aiming for first, not to ladder. I shoved.
I created Example 2 to try and figure out what the dynamics of the exact same hand would be if the third guy in the equation was micro stacked..... ie does the ladder become more important when 2nd place is so much more tangible and likely.
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in example 2 if he is a reg [plays nearly correctly :)] then if u push your fold equity is enormous , if u think he calls light even with the micro stack then obv fold..All on the read of his ability, i can see your logic for hand1 but i think u over estimate your FE here, your reads of his 3 hands showndown suggest he is raising correctly , the 78s call maybe dubious but without knowing odds/how he"d read vilain etc then i think expecting him to call the top 20% is fair..If u ICM it i"ll be very surprised if A3o is good enough to push.. plugged it in holdem resource for a quick view and it was pretty near.
Have a tinker - http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/icmcalculator.html
without no hard info on his call range i"d err on the tight side and would want to push a better ace kicker, there is just to many in his range..
Button 6000
SB 3500 (Me)
BB 3000
= 12500 :)
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Button 6000
SB 3500 (Me)
BB 3000
= 12500 :)
good point - looks like I lost 1000 in the rounding :)
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I also figured that as I was fairly equally stacked with the guy in the BB, and I needed to accumulate chips reasonably quickly to win - now that I"ve cashed I"m aiming for first, not to ladder. I shoved.
finish 3rd or first is the best approach imho so i agree with your logic here , just not the hand selection :) the problem is most other players have this approach now and A3o even against a random hand is only a 55% fav , when u figure that/if villain has same approach i fold A3o everytime , i"d rather play KJo for example against his range as u describe him..
If we think he calls 50% of his raise range -
KdJs - 44.449%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 55.551%
the 3.2% extra will help long term..
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I also figured that as I was fairly equally stacked with the guy in the BB, and I needed to accumulate chips reasonably quickly to win - now that I"ve cashed I"m aiming for first, not to ladder. I shoved.
finish 3rd or first is the best approach imho so i agree with your logic here , just not the hand selection :) the problem is most other players have this approach now and A3o even against a random hand is only a 55% fav , when u figure that/if villain has same approach i fold A3o everytime , i"d rather play KJo for example against his range as u describe him..
If we think he calls 50% of his raise range -
KdJs - 44.449%
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+ - 55.551%
the 3.2% extra will help long term..
He"s raising 70% of his hands, so I don"t think he"s going to call half his stack off half the time.
I think the most likely option is that he"ll fold, but even if he doesn"t I"d rather that I was the slight favourite and not him.
If he"s raised 7 out of the last 10, what range of hands are you waiting for to shove on him?
Seems a bit tight to fold Ace rag given how likely it is to be ahead.
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7 out of 10 raises getting dealt top 40% isnt a stretch jon and 3 of the showdowns dont suggest to me to put him on anything wider..If u icm it is a obv fold , plus my thoughts on A3o and how it plays against there range against this type are above ^ ...
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i must be playing these wrong....im shoving the first hand all day long... you have an ace 3handed?!
2nd obv call.
i find that there is more value in 2 table sng"s now... nobody knows how to play them
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7 out of 10 raises getting dealt top 40% isnt a stretch jon and 3 of the showdowns dont suggest to me to put him on anything wider..If u icm it is a obv fold , plus my thoughts on A3o and how it plays against there range against this type are above ^ ...
It may be player dependant, but I don"t think that a player who has raised 7 out of 10 when three handed has coincidentally been dealt top 40% hands, I think he is aiming to be the first raiser as often as possible.
What is the range you"re re shoving with? Does the frequency they"re likely to be dealt add up with the blinds and antes?
...2nd obv call.
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Although this is my generic hypothetical response, I can see that this is very very much player dependent, basically if I think the other player is "likely" to win the pot then I"ll fold pre flop.
That is more or less the same as, if I think the player will out play me post flop.
So almost never then. ::)
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Also, the 3 hands shown to knock players out were by definition - not when it was 3 handed, so I don"t think they"re necessarily relevant to the current situation.
And this is a turbo - blinds go up every 5 minutes. Just thought a reminder was needed in terms of the hand range to re shove. If you wait another 10 hands to show that he"s raising 7 out of 10 of those as well then you"re in a lot worse position.
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Also, the 3 hands shown to knock players out were by definition - not when it was 3 handed, so I don"t think they"re necessarily relevant to the current situation.
And this is a turbo - blinds go up every 5 minutes. Just thought a reminder was needed in terms of the hand range to re shove. If you wait another 10 hands to show that he"s raising 7 out of 10 of those as well then you"re in a lot worse position.
generally my opinion is that in sngs players main mistakes are maybe over-valuing A-x type hands, generally shoving too wide and over-estimating there fold equity but i"ll save that debate for another day :)
You got me thinking Jon, maybe not a good thing lol .. We know the blinds are going up next to 200/400 a25 , so the reasons i question shoving A3o apart from fold equity, calling range of villain and ICM equity, is the pick up of 975 chips going to change/improve AMRN"s stategy..If villain folds and the blinds go up we have 11bb, if we fold and the blinds go up we have 9bb so are we looking for a call?, we need villain to make an incorrect assessment of AMRN"s hand range to double up.. Is it worth the risk? as i"d rather push fold correctly when the blinds go up...
If we shove then villain has odds of 1.54 to 1 so 39% to call, if he is raising a optimum range intending to call any shove by the sb or bb because he thinks they will shove incorrectly [beyond 88+ ATs+ AJo+ for sb QQ+ for bb] icm or not he is correct to call with a range of 39% and beyond [cEV+]
If we pokerstove what we think his optimum range is versus A3o this the result -
Ac3s - 46.921%
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o - 53.079%
put aside opinions on ICM equity and we look at hand selection versus his possible wide hand range, this is what KJo looks like when stoved -
KcJs - 51.654%
44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T9o - 48.346%
when you look at possible hands which are favoured over this wide calling range [50%+] then i"d prefer A5s+ A8o+ KTs+ KTo+ 55+ if i was to look at it through my long term glasses if we are going to shove hoping to be called.
If villains calls super wide ATC he is getting the correct odds to anyway against A3o , with his stack and the fact we are ITM,the odds we are giving him then i cannot see much FE plus the extra 975 chips pick up if he folds just makes it a bad idea to shove in this situation imho.
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Would you consider yourself a strong (winning) SNG player noble? ???
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$2000+ profit playing 10-20 euro sit n gos last calender year
mostly 5 man but some 10 or 30 person also
Sold.