Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: kinboshi on August 02, 2010, 22:36:10 PM
-
It"s a 6-max tournament that had 116 runners. Top 11 are getting paid and we"re down to the last 12.
Starting stacks were 10,000 and the blinds 35 minutes, making it one of the most enjoyable and "playable" tournaments I"ve ever played. The TD told me that the average didn"t drop below 20xBBs until the tournament got down to 3-handed.
Having been stumbling along just below average, slowly trying to increase my stack. With about 40 left I"ve managed to be gifted one bloke"s stack when I rivered the nut straight and he decided to re-raise shove with the 2nd nuts. Very next hand the big stack turns the nut flush, which unfortunately for him gives me a full house. That gave me a very nice stack thank you very much and since then I"ve been motoring nicely. Now we"re down to two tables and we"re all looking at the final table (which will be a 7-seater table) and ideally a top 3 spot where the money is definitely less trivial.
So back to the hand in question. I"ve been playing quite a few hands, as the format dictates, as does my stack size. There are a few smaller stacks at the table and one other who has about the same stack as me (170,000). I"ve been putting pressure on the smaller stacks, and feeling fairly comfortable.
An orbit before the hand in question, I three-bet Seat 2, who is a tight player who hasn"t played as many hands as others at the table in the past few levels. She dwelled for a while and then passed. I have a feeling she laid down a decent Ace (maybe AQ) or a medium-high pair.
Anyway, an orbit later, I look down at ad1 kd in the BB. Blinds are 1,500/3,000 with antes of 300. UTG+1 limps, and Seat 2 raises up to 9,000. It"s folded to me. So we"re in a similar situation to the last orbit, when I re-raised to 27,000.
I have about 170,000 - Seat 1 has 60,000 and Seat 2 about 100,000.
Seat 1 was on my table earlier and seemed to know what he was doing. I was surprised with his limp, and it looked suspiciously like he was planning to re-raise. Seat 2 wasn"t unaware of this, and so her raise looked strong.
What do I do next?
-
i"d 3bet again to a similar amount and wouldn"t be folding
-
I shove the lot in!!
-
Yep 3 bet call it off Dan.
-
Fold it.......... Why?...........because the pay structure i assume is more top heavy so therefore i assume even a min cash will be good for your ROI.............Also tight player raising a limper surely gives her a more narrow range.............As you mention, you are comfortable picking on the scared money so why risk a flip at best in this situation, fold and continue with your stealing strategy as it is more optimal imho.........If you have been active then villains usually just adjust by tightening up more and will only open or play back at you with there strong hands, seat one you seem to have pegged for a strong hand, seat 2 is Mrs Tight, so fold bloody Ace high.. ;D
note - i"ll try to find a PXF replay of ckingusc in the wcoop 08 when he folds AKs pre in a similar spot to yours...
-
With stack sizes this seems like a pretty good spot to 3b/get it in. I duno why we would contemplate just folding when we have an aggro image and would still have 20x+ if we lose the hand. Also, it"s live poker....people can stack off a 20x stack w/ AJ+ :)
-
Fold it.......... Why?...........because the pay structure i assume is more top heavy so therefore i assume even a min cash will be good for your ROI.............Also tight player raising a limper surely gives her a more narrow range.............As you mention, you are comfortable picking on the scared money so why risk a flip at best in this situation, fold and continue with your stealing strategy as it is more optimal imho.........If you have been active then villains usually just adjust by tightening up more and will only open or play back at you with there strong hands, seat one you seem to have pegged for a strong hand, seat 2 is Mrs Tight, so fold bloody Ace high.. ;D
note - i"ll try to find a PXF replay of ckingusc in the wcoop 08 when he folds AKs pre in a similar spot to yours...
wow. Never fold Dan. Cking"s fold is probably based on a number of other factors one of which is he"s probably laddering for a few k rather then 100 odd quid
-
This is quite a tricky spot, seat 2 you have as tight, and seat 1 you feel is about to re raise. So not as simple as might look. I can see Noble"s reason for folding, but don"t think I could do this. Re raise to 30K. This should hopefully chase seat 1 away. I can see seat 2 calling or shoving after you bullied her the last orbit, and would put her on a pocket 9s or above. If she shoves do you want to race for your tournament?
-
This is quite a tricky spot, seat 2 you have as tight, and seat 1 you feel is about to re raise. So not as simple as might look. I can see Noble"s reason for folding, but don"t think I could do this. Re raise to 30K. This should hopefully chase seat 1 away. I can see seat 2 calling or shoving after you bullied her the last orbit, and would put her on a pocket 9s or above. If she shoves do you want to race for your tournament?
Not racing for tournament - have 70k back if we lose.
-
As for being happy with a min-cash...well that wasn"t what I was after:
1 £4,060
2 £2,378
3 £1,566
4 £1,044
5 £754
6 £522
7 £406
8 £290
9 £232
10 £174
11 £174
Really after 6th as a minimum, ideally.
-
As for being happy with a min-cash...well that wasn"t what I was after:
1 £4,060
2 £2,378
3 £1,566
4 £1,044
5 £754
6 £522
7 £406
8 £290
9 £232
10 £174
11 £174
Really after 6th as a minimum, ideally.
Guess you"ve answered it yourself here. Shove for takedown or possible race, with chance of getting a shot at 4k?
-
This is quite a tricky spot, seat 2 you have as tight, and seat 1 you feel is about to re raise. So not as simple as might look. I can see Noble"s reason for folding, but don"t think I could do this. Re raise to 30K. This should hopefully chase seat 1 away. I can see seat 2 calling or shoving after you bullied her the last orbit, and would put her on a pocket 9s or above. If she shoves do you want to race for your tournament?
Not racing for tournament - have 70k back if we lose.
Must read more carefully ! ;)
Still a big hit to your 170k, will be left with an M of 10. As I said i don"t think this is as strt forward as it would seem, but I think seat 2 pushes and Dan calls.
-
With stack sizes this seems like a pretty good spot to 3b/get it in. I duno why we would contemplate just folding when we have an aggro image and would still have 20x+ if we lose the hand. Also, it"s live poker....people can stack off a 20x stack w/ AJ+ :)
Others at the table would definitely be happy to stack off with AJ. But I didn"t think she would be doing that.
I decided to re-raise, making it 27K.
Seat 1 shook his head, thought for a while and folded.
Seat 2 looked at me, and pretty quickly declared "all-in".
Back to me...
-
snap
-
Pretty sure when you raised, you were prepared for her to shove, so I refer you to my previous answer ( you called). She turns over a pair, and you win the race. :)
-
3b/folding in this spot would be pretty dire so snappity snap snap.
-
stop slowrolling already
-
3b/folding in this spot would be pretty dire so snappity snap snap.
Why 3b in the first place (rather than shoving) if you"re never folding? Are you raising for information or not? Or is it purely a raise to induce? Is there any situation here where you 3 bet fold eg shove, shove?
-
Shoving lets villains play pretty perfectly and turns our hand face-up. We are 3betting for value here, and our raise rize shud be to induce. I prob make it 24k here when I 3b to allow villain to shove a bit wider.
There are def sit"s when I 3b fold. All my air hands obv do, and I would rather 3b fold my marginal hands than flat behind.
-
I had intended to call a shove.
But, then I saw a tell that made me think again.
This is probably the reason I posted this on here. Is it right to make a decision based on a tell? How certain do I have to be that my read is right? Is it possible to place a percentage on it, or is it just something that should (or shouldn"t) help me decide what I do in this specific, one-off situation.
Is letting a read dictate, or at least guide my play a mistake here?
-
what was the tell, did she flash her cards at you?
-
what was the tell, did she flash her cards at you?
So rude!
-
Regardless of reads I think we are commited in this spot. If we are deeper then we can maybe 3b fold if they are giving off a lot of strength, but not <40x.
-
Dancing on the table wooping and hoolering is not a tell
-
U probably should pick up this "tell" before you decide to 3 bet. You know you"ve turned you hand into a bluff here Dan if you fold
-
-
I had intended to call a shove.
But, then I saw a tell that made me think again.
This is probably the reason I posted this on here. Is it right to make a decision based on a tell? How certain do I have to be that my read is right? Is it possible to place a percentage on it, or is it just something that should (or shouldn"t) help me decide what I do in this specific, one-off situation.
Is letting a read dictate, or at least guide my play a mistake here?
tbh Dan this situation should of been thought about pre-flop, if your read that seat 2 wasn"t quite so tight then my whole view would change. The way you described the situation along with some history/reads, i couldn"t imagine seat 2 raising a limper thin, plus u read seat 1 pre as ""maybe"" strong, so preflop is this a profitable situation to reraise?
The 3bet sizing i"d do different if i had played it, 3x to me is to large at this stage with the stack sizes to blinds, 2.3 to 2.6x for me is better in general if up against decent players, it allows for a bit more 3betting when you are pressuring players.
All imho of course, folding a strong hand at times like this can be the best play in an tough/awkward situation,
-
U probably should pick up this "tell" before you decide to 3 bet.
It wasn"t there to pick up before the bet. But yes, it would have been better to see it earlier.
You know you"ve turned you hand into a bluff here Dan if you fold
Yes, I see that. So it"s right to ignore the read and put another 80K in the middle (I think it was actually 90K looking back, but that"s neither here nor there)?
U should have a plan before you 3 bet. What tell did u pick up? They"re over rated. I usually pick up a read and do the opposite cos I"m so crap at live tells :D
-
I had intended to call a shove.
But, then I saw a tell that made me think again.
This is probably the reason I posted this on here. Is it right to make a decision based on a tell? How certain do I have to be that my read is right? Is it possible to place a percentage on it, or is it just something that should (or shouldn"t) help me decide what I do in this specific, one-off situation.
Is letting a read dictate, or at least guide my play a mistake here?
tbh Dan this situation should of been thought about pre-flop, if your read that seat 2 wasn"t quite so tight then my whole view would change. The way you described the situation along with some history/reads, i couldn"t imagine seat 2 raising a limper thin, plus u read seat 1 pre as ""maybe"" strong, so preflop is this a profitable situation to reraise?
That"s what I thought with the information available to me at the time.
The 3bet sizing i"d do different if i had played it, 3x to me is to large at this stage with the stack sizes to blinds, 2.3 to 2.6x for me is better in general if up against decent players, it allows for a bit more 3betting when you are pressuring players.
I think I made it 25K total (my BB was already in there and I took it back and threw in some big chips. It was 27K-ish).
All imho of course, folding a strong hand at times like this can be the best play in an tough/awkward situation,
It wasn"t awkward until she"d shoved and then I read her as uber-strong that I questioned my plan (to ship the lot in).
My question is should I change my plan now, based on the information I now have, or do I carry on regardless?
Ideally, I"d have folded rather than raising if I"m even contemplating folding now. I don"t want to be spewing 15% of my stack.
-
U probably should pick up this "tell" before you decide to 3 bet.
It wasn"t there to pick up before the bet. But yes, it would have been better to see it earlier.
You know you"ve turned you hand into a bluff here Dan if you fold
Yes, I see that. So it"s right to ignore the read and put another 80K in the middle (I think it was actually 90K looking back, but that"s neither here nor there)?
U should have a plan before you 3 bet. What tell did u pick up? They"re over rated. I usually pick up a read and do the opposite cos I"m so crap at live tells :D
My plan before the 3-bet was to get it all in - even against a very tight player.
I rarely rely on tells and reads, unless they"re staring me in the face. Funnily enough, it"s easier to read a tight, predictable player than a loose, unpredictable one. Well, it is in my experience anyway.
-
ah but she may be excited that she has a good hand - granted, that doesn"t automatically translate to her having aces though does it. For example you could see me across the table genuinely excited to see you 3bet me instantly putting my chips in to find i have pocket 9s.
my point is that she may think that JJ/QQ etc is an exciting prospect. You"d have to put her on exactly aces to fold and if you can tell me your secret tell finding abilities that enable you to identify specific hands i"d be grateful.
what range do you now put her on Dan?
remember we have one ace and one king and this is a six max tournament
-
What?!?! 6max!! How r our chips not in yet?
-
Mine are !! ;D
-
Dan would u fold Queens if you picked up the same read? Or even Kings?
-
Dan would u fold Queens if you picked up the same read? Or even Kings?
Kings, doubt it.
Queens, maybe.
AK-soooted, maybe.
Jacks, yes.
AQ, yes.
-
It wasnt the
"ok im probably behind, but im all in" uber groannnnnnnnnnnn and then ship it tell?? iv seen this lots when some idiot has aces.
-
It wasnt the
"ok im probably behind, but im all in" uber groannnnnnnnnnnn and then ship it tell?? iv seen this lots when some idiot has aces.
No, it was infinitely more subtle - and yet seemed to speak volumes.
-
Dan u say in your post that your having success stealing and your feeling comfortable [so u should with 56bb"s :)]
Did u consider keeping the bubble alive as an alternative? The way u describe chip counts u are joint table chip leader yes? The best way to use your stack is not by doubling up the shorties or getting into pre/post flop all in battles with stacks which can decimate your stack to 20bb [especially when they are on your left]
IMO u were already playing a decent optimal game from what u say, after all i"d say that the primary goal/obligation of the big stack is to not pump up the small stacks, u can pick out far better situations. Let the others who are more desperate battle it out with the shorties, the increasing blinds will ensure this.. Your strategy beforehand by picking your spots was the best choice by far imho given the stack/blind sizes...
to quote gigabet on stack theory -
But the real question is, how do you recognize when you can get on the negative side of the situation and know that if you lose that individual hand, your stack will still be able to contend with the fields? Understanding that every situation is one long stream of events, and the results of any single hand mean nothing in the long run isn't enough.
There will be situations where math tells you to push with any two cards to pick up the pot(preflop, of course), however, if you are using my model, you will see that because the "line" is relatively stable, and your stack hovers above the line, than taking down that pot is very nearly always wrong. This is working on the opposite side of the coin, and recognizing when +ev situations should actually be avoided, because it would be more positive to wait until either the line moves, or your stack moves closer to the line.
Dan your whole strategy changes with this 1 gamble, the gain imo changes nothing , the loss totally changes your strat.
-
Its 6max and it is live. Folding is the worst of the 3 options pre. If you wana be a nit and focus on stack preservation then flat the 9k, but...its 6m, on the bubble, and we have AKs. We have stated we are not interested in a min-cash - winning this hand pretty much locks up our target cash and puts us in the best situation to tid. In 6m, people can think 10"s are the nuts!
I genuinely do not understand how 3b/get it in can"t be the best option! If effective stacks were deeper then things change, but she has just over 30x...
-
ty for calling me a nit lmao .. i"m not folding AK because i"m a nit , i"m folding because 2 tight players are in the pot already also i can continue to abuse the bubble and would try to manipulate the stack sizes [and the player tendencies] in my favour.. Hence the saying ""we are the dam"" and chips flow clockwise... Shorties on our left , larger stacks on our right , perfect set up to take advantage of... Get your chips in if the table is full of tough players and its hard to gain chips but if there are any trying to survive the bubble then i"d use those 53bb"s with a different strategy, oh its not different, Dan was comfortably doing that beforehand..
In fact blow it , ignore reads , ignore bubble play and stack sizes just view every situation with AKs as +ev and get your chips in, just play the hand and put a bra on your head [and dont forget your lucky pants] Whoever coined the term ""play for the win"" should be knighted imho as its the best excuse ever for brilliant play ;D
-
nit itt ;)
Due to the bubble we actually have extra f/e which makes 3b"n even more profitable.
I would LOVE to know wat ur 3b range is in this spot! Sigh whoever coined the phrase "its only ace high."
[ ] happy with a min cash
- want to put ourselves in a good spot to tid
-
Its 6max and it is live. Folding is the worst of the 3 options pre. If you wana be a nit and focus on stack preservation then flat the 9k, but...its 6m, on the bubble, and we have AKs. We have stated we are not interested in a min-cash - winning this hand pretty much locks up our target cash and puts us in the best situation to tid. In 6m, people can think 10"s are the nuts!
Agreed. But this is a very player dependent situation. In fact, with a different player I wouldn"t have thought too long at all about calling the shove.
In this case:
- Is she bluffing? I"d say there"s an almost 0% chance of that being the case in this instance.
- Is she making this move, in this situation, with anything less than QQ, KK or AA? I don"t think so (maybe AK...)
- So does she ever turn over TT or JJ here? I"d say no.
I genuinely do not understand how 3b/get it in can"t be the best option! If effective stacks were deeper then things change, but she has just over 30x...
I thought I was in a good spot until she shoved. My plan was to call a shove, but like I said, my reads told to me reassess.
I"d have loved to have "known" what the tells were telling me before I re-raised her, but they were only shown when it was back to her and she made the all-in move and then after that when I sat there and had a think.
If I know 100% she has QQ, then I"m calling. But from what I now "know", that"s right at the bottom of her range - and more unlikely than KK or AA.
I"ve only ever made "big" decisions like this a handful of times in tournaments. The consensus seems to be that I shouldn"t look at a particular hand in isolation, and against a lot of people a lot of the time, my AK is good here or I"m racing.
-
So do we take it that you laid it down. ;)
-
-
ok u seem to me to want to dismiss reads,stacks,tempo and the game flow at the time and get jiggy with AKs but then fold to a 4bet?
I dont doubt your reads on this player pre were pretty much spot on, if you suspect someone to folding AQ or medium pairs to a active 3bettor then when they are 30bb effective i"d anticipate them to tighten up before raising again with u behind to act. Now in your situation the a 20bb limper uttg1 is raised by Mrs Tight [which to me narrows her range moreso than if it had been a open raise]
So what range do we put her on? TT JJ QQ KK AA AK AQ ?? agree/disagree ??
There is 18300 in the pot and the action is on u , if u choose to 3bet u think she would fold TT JJ AQ [24combo"s] and her 4bet range is QQ KK AK [21 combo"s]
AdKd - 42% equity
QQ+,AcKc,AhKh,AsKs,AcKh,AcKs,AhKc,AhKs,AsKc,AsKh - 58.096%
So why Dan if u had thought pre-flop how she reacts with her range before u acted, why risk 27000 [ish as u say] to win 18000 ??? she is only folding to a 3bet 55% of the time , hence the ""theres loads of Fold equity malarkey"" , there is not enough FE to make this profitable... Something when especially live that u could of figured out beforehand imho...
edit - also it gets interesting if u thought about what range the limper has given your read preflop as possibly strong , then what did u plan to do after 3betting if the limper pushed and Mrs Tight called into your thinking preflop...
-
I would have called his shove.
-
was he german? ;D
-
was he german? ;D
From his accent and surname, I think he was Spanish.
-
-
was his name basil brush and did you wipe the floor with him
-
I"d probably take into account the UTG limp from someone who"s not been doing this regularly, the tight player"s raise of an UTG limp, and the bubble situation. Surely the bubble situation means the tight player"s range is even tighter?
I wouldn"t 3 bet in this spot if you"re planning to fold to a shove. I think folding is probably way too tight. I would flat call preflop. You"re deep enough so this isnt a complete spew. The UTG player will probably come along for the extra 6k. If he re-pops you can safely fold. If he doesnt you can play the hand safely 3 ways in position
If you end up having to fold to a cbet on the flop when you miss, so be it. You"ve preserved your big stack, and you"ve preserved the bubble situation for alittle while longer, meaning you can use your maintained stack to steal chips for some time yet
-
are the chips in the middle yet?