Amateur Poker Association & Tour

Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: PantsMan on March 28, 2011, 17:40:17 PM

Title: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: PantsMan on March 28, 2011, 17:40:17 PM
£1/£1 Cash game in Coventry, currently sat with about 180 bbs.

New guy has sat down at the table, not really seen much of him so far but has been getting involved.

He"s sat about 4 seats to my right and i"m in the BB.

He raises it up to £4, button calls and i call with   qs 9s.

Flop comes down 9-2-2 rainbow.

I bet out £6, original raiser flat calls, button folds.

Pot is now £25.

Turn comes 4. I check, original raiser bets out £12. I call.

Pot is no £49.

River comes another 2.

I check. Original raiser now overbets the pot with a bet of £64.

Intrigued as to what others think here.....


Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: Shogun112 on March 28, 2011, 18:21:02 PM
Did it involve the winner buying 200 ducks?
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: duke3016 on March 28, 2011, 18:34:38 PM
Me - calling everyday including Sunday - but that"s just me  ;D

Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: cincicrappykid on March 28, 2011, 19:11:56 PM
callllllllllllllllllll he has AK and is a DONK
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: Marty719 on March 28, 2011, 19:22:08 PM
irl I dnt see myself folding here when he flats our flop donk.  As there are no draws on the flop, he knows our donk into 2 players shows a lot of strength.  This means he will have to turn a lot of high-card floats into bluffs as he will realise they have little sdv.  His value range also doesnt make a lot of sense, as he flats our small flop donk with a player behind.

I like how u played it all btw.

That said, I think its important to note the quality of live poker is not as good as online, so not as many players are capable of making these river overbets with air.  Prob advisable to get a perception of villain and how comfortable he looks at the table and how much live experience he has. 

Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: SirPercival on March 28, 2011, 19:25:27 PM
You need to read Zeebo"s theorem.  ;D
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: WYoung83 on March 28, 2011, 20:19:30 PM
Really weird spot andy, WTF can he rep here. If hes gonna spew river with AK then surly he raises your donk on the flop. I think (after reading 3 times and changing my mind) that im gonna call here TBH.

Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: AMRN on March 28, 2011, 20:47:43 PM
snaaaaaap
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: PantsMan on March 28, 2011, 21:51:52 PM

Did it involve the winner buying 200 ducks?


Unfortunately not. I can"t possibly compete with Craig on the poker rubdowns!
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: PantsMan on March 28, 2011, 22:10:52 PM
Hmmm, interesting replies. Cheers guys.

FWIW - Here was my thinking....

On the flop, ok, i"ve hit the nine, clear bet.

On the turn, check for pot control, call.

On the river, well, this is where i lost it. I checked intending to call, figuring he"d bet out with a pair smaller than nines and i could snap him off as he"d taken my 2 checks to mean i was weak. I did not expect the overbet and for me it"s a great bet on his part as it gives me a huge decision. No surprise to anyone on here, i tanked for a bit.  :)

In the end i folded. My reasoning...

If he"s got a nine i"m betting £64 to win £25. Not good.
If he"s got 10s plus then he"d have played it much the same.
If he"s got a 2 then he"s overbetting to get a call from a nine or an overpair. It"s how i"d have played it.

If he"s got nothing then great call by me, woohoo but what are the chances?

The table was very weak and there were going to be much better spots to get my money in.

As it turns out, later in the game i wished i"d have called him! I later got a pair of tens, bet out on a 7 high flop and got called by him. Turn Q, River K and i made a hero call against his big river bet and took £60 off him. C"est la vie!

Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: mousebob on March 28, 2011, 22:22:53 PM

Don"t think I"d be folding in this spot. You got him in a corner & let him off!!
Interesting that you made what looks like a harder call later.
Always easier to make decisions reading a forum!! ;D
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: Swinebag on March 28, 2011, 22:31:59 PM
Cant see me folding this either. However your thinking seems pretty good so great fold
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: deanp27 on March 28, 2011, 22:37:14 PM
if you are leading flop i am betting turn and then river, but as played not c/folding river
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: PantsMan on March 28, 2011, 23:04:47 PM
Cheers guys, always good to get other opinions. All are welcome.

For me it was about risk/reward. I figured most likely he had a nine, in which case it was £65 to win £25, but if i was wrong then it was £65 down the drain. I could only beat a bluff (or a smaller pair), therefore it wasn"t worth the risk and i didn"t know enough about the player.

It may have clouded my judgement that i"d made a similar call in a game a few years back where he turned over the case Jack for Quads and cost me a lot of money.

Personally i think it"s a great bet on his part whatever he has, although the amount of people on here saying call means if he was bluffing it"s a terrible move but if he has the two it"s genius!  But then that"s what i love about poker!   :)
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: Shonky on March 29, 2011, 12:09:38 PM
I think he could just as easily have been holding an overpair as he could be holding a 9.  I dont think there are many hands he could 4 bet pre that have a 2 in there... therefore i"d consider repping a 2 myself especially being in the blinds and having opened on the flop, by pot betting the turn (maybe check raise would work too).  If he calls you know he has a hand you"re either splitting with him or he has you beat.  Check or value bet the river, he"ll most likely take the cheap showdown IMO.
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: Marty719 on March 29, 2011, 12:28:30 PM

I think he could just as easily have been holding an overpair as he could be holding a 9.  I dont think there are many hands he could 4 bet pre that have a 2 in there... therefore i"d consider repping a 2 myself especially being in the blinds and having opened on the flop, by pot betting the turn (maybe check raise would work too).  If he calls you know he has a hand you"re either splitting with him or he has you beat.  Check or value bet the river, he"ll most likely take the cheap showdown IMO.


4bet means something different than u think.  BB=1B, initial raise=2b, re-raise = 3b, re-re-raise=4b.

Its hard for us to rep a 2, as we do not have many 2x hands in our oop calling range.  Random villains prob dnt think we would donk w/ a 2 either (although it is a good way to build pots vs ppl with strong pf ranges) and c/r or c/c is prob the standard.  Also, we do not need to rep a 2 as our hand has plenty of sdv.  Turning a 9 into a bluff here would not be good.  When we lead flop small and check turn, we set up some river bluffs from villain, so we can profitably call.  By playing our hand like we did, we keep some air in villains range.  If we pot the turn, all we do is get rid of all the air in villains range and allow him to play perfectly.

We need to be aware of our perceived hand strength in these spots, and how our actions will affect this.
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: Shonky on March 29, 2011, 13:03:05 PM


I think he could just as easily have been holding an overpair as he could be holding a 9.  I dont think there are many hands he could 4 bet pre that have a 2 in there... therefore i"d consider repping a 2 myself especially being in the blinds and having opened on the flop, by pot betting the turn (maybe check raise would work too).  If he calls you know he has a hand you"re either splitting with him or he has you beat.  Check or value bet the river, he"ll most likely take the cheap showdown IMO.


4bet means something different than u think.  BB=1B, initial raise=2b, re-raise = 3b, re-re-raise=4b.

Its hard for us to rep a 2, as we do not have many 2x hands in our oop calling range.  Random villains prob dnt think we would donk w/ a 2 either (although it is a good way to build pots vs ppl with strong pf ranges) and c/r or c/c is prob the standard.  Also, we do not need to rep a 2 as our hand has plenty of sdv.  Turning a 9 into a bluff here would not be good.  When we lead flop small and check turn, we set up some river bluffs from villain, so we can profitably call.  By playing our hand like we did, we keep some air in villains range.  If we pot the turn, all we do is get rid of all the air in villains range and allow him to play perfectly.

We need to be aware of our perceived hand strength in these spots, and how our actions will affect this.


ahaaaa... thanks for putting me straight on that.  I may be slow, but I"m learning  ;)

If you think villain isn"t crediting us with a 2, there"s really only one card he can think we have, a 9 (that is what we have).  why lead the flop then OOP and then try control the pot after having given away info?  surely this gives villain a big advantage over us and checking both turn and river to him makes us look weak.  Would be a good line if we have {2x,99,AA} and know he has a tendancy to overbet.  I"d rather try and get some info from him with a re-raise/bluff somewhere that puts him on the spot than let him set the pace when we"re not sure what he"s holding.
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: Marty719 on March 29, 2011, 13:15:06 PM



I think he could just as easily have been holding an overpair as he could be holding a 9.  I dont think there are many hands he could 4 bet pre that have a 2 in there... therefore i"d consider repping a 2 myself especially being in the blinds and having opened on the flop, by pot betting the turn (maybe check raise would work too).  If he calls you know he has a hand you"re either splitting with him or he has you beat.  Check or value bet the river, he"ll most likely take the cheap showdown IMO.


4bet means something different than u think.  BB=1B, initial raise=2b, re-raise = 3b, re-re-raise=4b.

Its hard for us to rep a 2, as we do not have many 2x hands in our oop calling range.  Random villains prob dnt think we would donk w/ a 2 either (although it is a good way to build pots vs ppl with strong pf ranges) and c/r or c/c is prob the standard.  Also, we do not need to rep a 2 as our hand has plenty of sdv.  Turning a 9 into a bluff here would not be good.  When we lead flop small and check turn, we set up some river bluffs from villain, so we can profitably call.  By playing our hand like we did, we keep some air in villains range.  If we pot the turn, all we do is get rid of all the air in villains range and allow him to play perfectly.

We need to be aware of our perceived hand strength in these spots, and how our actions will affect this.


ahaaaa... thanks for putting me straight on that.  I may be slow, but I"m learning  ;)

If you think villain isn"t crediting us with a 2, there"s really only one card he can think we have, a 9 (that is what we have).  why lead the flop then OOP and then try control the pot after having given away info?  surely this gives villain a big advantage over us and checking both turn and river to him makes us look weak.  Would be a good line if we have {2x,99,AA} and know he has a tendancy to overbet.  I"d rather try and get some info from him with a re-raise/bluff somewhere that puts him on the spot than let him set the pace when we"re not sure what he"s holding.



I think a lot of what ur saying is more suited for when we have reads on villain.  We dnt know that he has a history of over-betting so we cannot set him up for this.  I dnt think I donk flop here as a default, but I quite like it with this sizing.  It may be giving away info about our hand strength, but it is also gaining info on villains ranges and controlling the pot size.  By donking small, it puts the pfr"r into a tough spot with the middle of his range with a player behind. 

I really don"t think potting turn is good when we have no prior info on villain and his tendancies.  We always have to b/f by betting turn, but we do not know anything about villains tendancies.  Just feels that pot controlling and keeping his air in, we can make a greater long-term profit vs random villains.
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: PantsMan on March 29, 2011, 14:16:46 PM

I think he could just as easily have been holding an overpair as he could be holding a 9.  I dont think there are many hands he could 4 bet pre that have a 2 in there... therefore i"d consider repping a 2 myself especially being in the blinds and having opened on the flop, by pot betting the turn (maybe check raise would work too).  If he calls you know he has a hand you"re either splitting with him or he has you beat.  Check or value bet the river, he"ll most likely take the cheap showdown IMO.


He didn"t 4-bet pre-flop. He was the initial raiser. A-2 suited is certainly in his range. 7-2 os is certainly in mine!  ;)

Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: PantsMan on March 29, 2011, 14:27:10 PM




I think he could just as easily have been holding an overpair as he could be holding a 9.  I dont think there are many hands he could 4 bet pre that have a 2 in there... therefore i"d consider repping a 2 myself especially being in the blinds and having opened on the flop, by pot betting the turn (maybe check raise would work too).  If he calls you know he has a hand you"re either splitting with him or he has you beat.  Check or value bet the river, he"ll most likely take the cheap showdown IMO.


4bet means something different than u think.  BB=1B, initial raise=2b, re-raise = 3b, re-re-raise=4b.

Its hard for us to rep a 2, as we do not have many 2x hands in our oop calling range.  Random villains prob dnt think we would donk w/ a 2 either (although it is a good way to build pots vs ppl with strong pf ranges) and c/r or c/c is prob the standard.  Also, we do not need to rep a 2 as our hand has plenty of sdv.  Turning a 9 into a bluff here would not be good.  When we lead flop small and check turn, we set up some river bluffs from villain, so we can profitably call.  By playing our hand like we did, we keep some air in villains range.  If we pot the turn, all we do is get rid of all the air in villains range and allow him to play perfectly.

We need to be aware of our perceived hand strength in these spots, and how our actions will affect this.


ahaaaa... thanks for putting me straight on that.  I may be slow, but I"m learning  ;)

If you think villain isn"t crediting us with a 2, there"s really only one card he can think we have, a 9 (that is what we have).  why lead the flop then OOP and then try control the pot after having given away info?  surely this gives villain a big advantage over us and checking both turn and river to him makes us look weak.  Would be a good line if we have {2x,99,AA} and know he has a tendancy to overbet.  I"d rather try and get some info from him with a re-raise/bluff somewhere that puts him on the spot than let him set the pace when we"re not sure what he"s holding.



I think a lot of what ur saying is more suited for when we have reads on villain.  We dnt know that he has a history of over-betting so we cannot set him up for this.  I dnt think I donk flop here as a default, but I quite like it with this sizing.  It may be giving away info about our hand strength, but it is also gaining info on villains ranges and controlling the pot size.  By donking small, it puts the pfr"r into a tough spot with the middle of his range with a player behind. 

I really don"t think potting turn is good when we have no prior info on villain and his tendancies.  We always have to b/f by betting turn, but we do not know anything about villains tendancies.  Just feels that pot controlling and keeping his air in, we can make a greater long-term profit vs random villains.


Agreed with all of the above. I had no previous with him so had no knowledge of his tendancies. Certainly wasn"t prepared for the overbet on the river!

Definitely not potting the turn here. Not sure what it achieves. If he folds, great but if he calls then we"ve got a really tough decision on the river. Happy to check-call here. Don"t want to over-inflate the pot with my holding and by checking it shows "weakness" and gives him a chance to figure that betting out with his AK, AQ (etc) hands will win the pot.
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: deanp27 on March 29, 2011, 16:10:55 PM
I wouldn"t pot the turn but definitely think betting>c/c given flop line
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: Marty719 on March 29, 2011, 16:13:01 PM

I wouldn"t pot the turn but definitely think betting>c/c given flop line


whats ur turn sizing?  Are u always b/f"n?  Theres some people I value 3 streets vs with this, but I struggle to see how it is better vs a random.  Not saying its not............I just need to be convinced :)
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: noble1 on March 30, 2011, 00:24:23 AM

£1/£1 Cash game in Coventry, currently sat with about 180 bbs.

New guy has sat down at the table, not really seen much of him so far but has been getting involved.

He"s sat about 4 seats to my right and i"m in the BB.

He raises it up to £4, button calls and i call with   qs 9s.

Flop comes down 9-2-2 rainbow.

I bet out £6, original raiser flat calls, button folds.

Pot is now £25.

Turn comes 4. I check, original raiser bets out £12. I call.

Pot is no £49.

River comes another 2.

I check. Original raiser now overbets the pot with a bet of £64.

Intrigued as to what others think here.....





not a fan of calling with Q9 here, i"d prefer 3bet or fold.. as played after donk betting flop with a turn 4 i can"t see any merit to checking tbh... 1/2 pot plus the turn is ok imo, after choosing to take the line of cc"ing turn and getting pretty much a good river 2, then you check fold river?
you have played it so strange given the board texture don"t u think? that villain will feel he can blast u out of the pot..
i wouldn"t be averse to check raising turn with the view that we met get villain off some better hands occasionally :) but also get some calls from T9 J9 98 etc from the odd spewy random villains...
Quote
Don"t want to over-inflate the pot with my holding and by checking it shows "weakness" and gives him a chance to figure that betting out with his AK, AQ (etc) hands will win the pot.

by betting the turn or river at least u make sure he ends up calling and feeling owned with worse 9"s 88 77 etc, don"t be handcuffed by traditional thinking by not betting u look like ur a passive fish he can **** all over [just imo :)]
by checking the turn 4 on this texture it makes your flop lead look nebulous at best..
looking at the board texture, yourself and villains line of play, the bet sizing and your positions, the stake level etc there are certain lines which basically scream that your opponent or yourself has mid level nonsense to absolute dog**** hence u set yourself up for aggro villains to bluff-jam rivers... call his river bet and adjust afterwards imo..


added later -
pot control when out of position is difficult, after all as a concept it is best used in position :)  reasons why people want to pot control oop is because they are afraid of getting raised if they bet mostly is it not?  depending on board texture if say we bet out either on the flop or the turn we must take into account how likely villain is to raise and what sort of range he"s repping when he does raise, at small stakes vs weak players, bet/folding is going to be superior to pot controlling most of the time imho.. against tougher, more balanced opposition, pot controlling in some of these situations gets a little better but against tough competition pot controlling one to many spots turns your hand face up, and they will play better against you... its the pot control versus value/protection concept question, in general i"d say the more likely draws (or worse hands in general) are in your opponents hands, the more likely you should be to bet... if it"s a spot where villain could have draws but could also have tons of better TPs, two pairs, etc., then we should be less likely to bet... likewise the less co-ordinated the board is and the lower your kicker is the more likely we should check because less hands call our bet or suck out on subsequent streets...
its been a while since i have thought about it [pot control v value] tbh, in example terms As2s on Ah9h7s wants to bet aggressively on the flop and turn because the combinators in villains range are weighted towards more hands we value bet than say As2s on Ah3c3s where fewer hands we"re ahead of call multiple streets...
meh tough to say do this do that, this is bad, this is good etc etc blah blah, without reads/info or the oppo"s tendencies to go by its tough to say how we can realistically try and control the pot size, but still achieve the goal of minimizing our losses and maximising our gains...
the best form of pot control here in this spot is to fold pre :) lol... the check raise turn may seem oddball but its pot controlling differently in that u can still fold out worse/better sometimes but also if u check river then a lot of opponents will check behind the river also... meh all depends on your style of play PantsMan, in the end only u can work out what is suitable for your own style of play, as long as u develop creativity rather than rules :) then fold call  raise whatever :)
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: Marty719 on March 30, 2011, 08:06:43 AM
Have to say, I think c/r turn is an awful line.  No-one at live 100NL is going to fold 1010+ on this turn.  True, they also do not fold worse 9, but likewise, they do not fold better 9"s.  At higher levels, we can run the blocker to nut boat advanced turn raise, but at these levels it is just giving away money.

"by checking the turn 4 on this texture it makes your flop lead look nebulous at best..
looking at the board texture, yourself and villains line of play, the bet sizing and your positions, the stake level etc there are certain lines which basically scream that your opponent or yourself has mid level nonsense to absolute dog**** hence u set yourself up for aggro villains to bluff-jam rivers"

Perfect.  This is the purpose of our turn check, to allow villains air to bomb river.  I def agree with you that we cannot check back turn and fold river tho.  
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: deanp27 on March 30, 2011, 12:55:42 PM


I wouldn"t pot the turn but definitely think betting>c/c given flop line


whats ur turn sizing?  Are u always b/f"n?  Theres some people I value 3 streets vs with this, but I struggle to see how it is better vs a random.  Not saying its not............I just need to be convinced :)


I"d bet just over half the pot and prolly fold to a turn raise vs standard low level cash players because I can"t see villain floating flop and bluff raising the turn and can"t see villain raising worse hands for value either. I prefer betting smallish to checking because there could be alot of med strength hands he has that he checks back and we miss value. If we are going to call a bet then we are probably better off betting ourselves. We effectively pot control by setting our own price.

Neither player should have many 2x hands in their preflop range except a2sooted but that maybe me giving too much credit.
As an aside if I was villain I would consider flat calling flop with aces or kings because the flop is such a lock for us

Although all this will depend on what I seen villain showdown already
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: I Q8Holds I on April 15, 2011, 19:28:49 PM
why not bet the turn for value.... quite easy for him to be a non believer and call you down with 33-88 910 89? if he re raises on the turn fold hes got aces ... Re evaluate the river to see wether its destination value town
Title: Re: Should i stay or should i fold now....
Post by: JStarkey on May 05, 2011, 19:58:17 PM
115k pre. Shove also works.