Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: mporter123 on October 12, 2011, 08:23:27 AM
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Online 6 Max Tourney - fairly early stages - Blinds are 50/100, with an ante of 10.
We have a stack of 2475 in the big blind and pick up kd tc
Folded round to the small blind who is playing 22/22 over 80 or so hands who makes it 225. We call.
Flop comes :3d: kc :3h:. We check, villain bets 275 into 510 and we call.
Turn comes 9h. We check, villain bets 575 into 1060 and we call leaving 1400 behind.
River comes 6s. We check, villain bets 1K. We?
My thoughts on the hand were that I wasn"t sure how to act pre. I tend not to call too much with that stack size but didnt want to 3bet as felt he was more than capable of 4 betting me quite light and forcing a fold. Check call, check call line is a standard way that I would play this hand post flop, keeping in all his bluffs which I would think make up a fairly large range considering blind on blind dynamics. Once he bets the river though, I struggle to see what I beat...
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Villain raised from the sb, but we act first on all streets?
BvB leads to a lot of weird levelling so Im def gng to be calling river here unless I had stats tht show he was the most passive post-flop player in the world...
Def not raising flop or turn as it folds out all worse and doesnt fold out any better. Also want to be keeping all air in his range.
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Firstly just post the HH as your recollection of the hand is flawed due to being in BBvSB but still OOP....
With 24bbs you can consider jamming pre vs this guy"s open. As played folding the river would be a mistake in my opinion and just calling down is alot better than raising flop or turn. Can"t recall folding top pair BvB with this shallow a stack very often
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would have bet the flop to see where we are!! if I got called ok if re-raised would have folded
as it stands you have got to call but I think he raised with ac kh and you are beat,
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Sorry, my mistake, it was the villain betting and me calling down the streets.
I dont really ever jam pre here blind on blind unless he is maniac and I think he will call with worse. I"m not sure what a jam will accomplish against most players here? He will call with 9 9 in this spot but anything else is beating us.
I dont understand why he didnt just set me in on the river. It felt like a value bet at the time and he isnt value betting anything I can beat. Also I"m not sure he fires the third barell as a bluff against my stack size considering how the hand has played...
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but why didnt he put you all in? it makes no sense, he KNOWS f you are calling 1k, you are calling the rest of it, so why didnt he go for it?
For this reason, i probably do a call.
And am probably wrong.
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I dont understand why he didnt just set me in on the river. It felt like a value bet at the time and he isnt value betting anything I can beat. Also I"m not sure he fires the third barell as a bluff against my stack size considering how the hand has played...
No point making reads if you"re going to ignore them. Fold to river value bet.
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Raise on that flop to around 650 in position, If he"s raised pre with a bigger King pre then you"ll prob find out if you"re behind and save yourself the call call call down the streets and more chips.
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Raise on that flop to around 650 in position, If he"s raised pre with a bigger King pre then you"ll prob find out if you"re behind and save yourself the call call call down the streets and more chips.
The old me would have done this but you are essentially playing your hand face up if we play this way. If we call then we give him the opportunity to keep on bluffing with his A x hands and his junk. Even more reason for calling in a blind on blind situation where his opening raise could be perceived to be very wide. Raising at any point in this hand makes no sense as nothing will call us that we beat.
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I dont understand why he didnt just set me in on the river. It felt like a value bet at the time and he isnt value betting anything I can beat. Also I"m not sure he fires the third barell as a bluff against my stack size considering how the hand has played...
No point making reads if you"re going to ignore them. Fold to river value bet.
I folded so no idea what villain had. Felt really marginal at the time.
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Villain also has worse K"s in his range BvB. I really dislike folding a lot (in general yes, but especially in this spot). People do weird things bvb...
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I"d shove pre as a semi bluff
If he folds (as he will most of the time) you"ve added over 10% to your stack, if he calls you"re "likely" to be about 2:1 underdog (hence why it"s a semi bluff not a value shove) - but you"re getting pretty short stacked, if you"re not going to take a risk now then how bad does your situation have to be before you do?
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Villain also has worse K"s in his range BvB. I really dislike folding a lot (in general yes, but especially in this spot). People do weird things bvb...
Really, you expect villain bets 3 streets with K2,K4,K5,K7 and K8, villain could also have K3,K6,K9,KJ,KQ,KK and AK.
Even allowing for villain betting 3 streets with worse K"s (highly improbable imho) we face a range of 5 combos of weaker K"s versus 7 combos that beat us, villain can also have air, A3, 33, 66, and 99. The nett result for me is a trivial fold.
We will of course on rare occasion, fold the best hand but more often we make the correct decision.
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mmmmmmmmmmm, tricky one this, imho i dont like playing k 10 at any time, when the board shows a paired flop its time to throw away. The villain could have a pocker pair, a3 or aj to ak or two hearts and just kept firing, i would let it go, two out of three times the flop hits nothing for you anyway and against an action junkie id wait for a big hand for him to hang himself. Put it this way, three bets, three calls, you lose or fold with the best hand, you lose, its your choice. If he did have a pocket pair you have to call but when he bets the turn and the river that to me smells danger ;)
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I"d shove pre as a semi bluff
If he folds (as he will most of the time) you"ve added over 10% to your stack, if he calls you"re "likely" to be about 2:1 underdog (hence why it"s a semi bluff not a value shove) - but you"re getting pretty short stacked, if you"re not going to take a risk now then how bad does your situation have to be before you do?
Never heard of a pre flop semi bluff
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Raise on that flop to around 650 in position, If he"s raised pre with a bigger King pre then you"ll prob find out if you"re behind and save yourself the call call call down the streets and more chips.
Don"t do this.
Like the way you"ve played the hand thus far. Board is pretty dry so it"s a bit of a meh spot. Has he shown any tendencies to barrel off previously?
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I"d shove pre as a semi bluff
If he folds (as he will most of the time) you"ve added over 10% to your stack, if he calls you"re "likely" to be about 2:1 underdog (hence why it"s a semi bluff not a value shove) - but you"re getting pretty short stacked, if you"re not going to take a risk now then how bad does your situation have to be before you do?
Never heard of a pre flop semi bluff
;D neither had I until the voices in my head told me about it earlier
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I think this is a pretty standard rejam pre with a 24BB stack.
As played, I like your calling down line as there is not much value in raising - By the river, you are pretty pot commited so call it off
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What"s the buy-in? Any other HEM stats?
As played - Can"t raise flop, or at any point in the hand (Grant, how could you? ;)). Decision here is on the turn. As George said, board is uber dry, what the hell does he think you have? Realistically I"d need a read on the opponent or an idea he might triple barrel.
Given your stack size if you call turn you"re already committing to call river. He bets 1k into 2310. You need to be good just under 25% of the time to make a profitable call on the river. But the decision is made on the turn - you have to expect to call the rest of your stack off on the river.
Jam pre is best. Even allowing a generous calling range (20% of hands) your equity is going to be around 37% and you"ll comfortably show a long term profit.
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A bit more detail on this one - dug out the hand history:-
Some errors in how I originally reported from memory..
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, October 11, 01:38:59 ET 2011
Table 451550796 43 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Seat 1: viko73 ( $3249.00 USD )
Seat 2: S0lracNauj ( $10505.00 USD )
Seat 3: Alone46 ( $13085.00 USD )
Seat 4: Mark_Port157 ( $2685.00 USD )
Seat 5: FlyingLevi ( $2805.00 USD )
Seat 6: aeiouma ( $3700.00 USD )
viko73 posts ante of [$10.00 USD].
S0lracNauj posts ante of [$10.00 USD].
Alone46 posts ante of [$10.00 USD].
Mark_Port157 posts ante of [$10.00 USD].
FlyingLevi posts ante of [$10.00 USD].
aeiouma posts ante of [$10.00 USD].
Alone46 posts small blind [$50.00 USD].
Mark_Port157 posts big blind [$100.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Mark_Port157 [ Kh Td ]
FlyingLevi folds
aeiouma folds
viko73 folds
S0lracNauj folds
Alone46 raises [$172.00 USD]
Mark_Port157 calls [$122.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3s, Kc, 3h ]
Alone46 bets [$300.00 USD]
Mark_Port157 calls [$300.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
Alone46 bets [$450.00 USD]
Mark_Port157 calls [$450.00 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
Alone46 bets [$1000.00 USD]
Mark_Port157 folds
Alone46 wins $1000.00 USD
Alone46 wins $2004.00 USD from main pot
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So the buy in was $1+0.10. I dont think its fair to just automatically say call with that fact though. As previously stated, I thought villain was more than competent.
Given new information that starting stack was infact nearly 27 blinds.... can we still jam here? I, perhaps wrongly, had considered 24BB"s too much to jam here, is this the case for 27bb"s?
Villains Stats (108 hands):-
VPIP - 25
PFR - 24.1
3Bet - 14.8
Flop C Bet - 100%
Won $ @ SD - $100
I agree with the fact that once we call turn we are pot committed but do we just call river in this spot even if we are fairly sure we are behind just because of the odds? Can we ever fold the turn here? I may be over thinking this..
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For a jam pre, assume a very loose calling range of any Ace, QJs, KJ+ and any pair. Your equity is ~38% vs this range.
77% of the time you"ll win 382 (blinds, antes and his raise) = 294 cEV
23% x 38% you"ll double up and win 2825 = 247 cEV
23% x 62% you"ll bust and lose 2575 = -367 cEV
Overall profit = 174 cEV
Note this is almost certainly an underestimate. Narrowing the Villain"s range doesn"t alter your equity greatly and you get through pre more often, widening and your showdown equity increases with each hand you add.
Though this pretty much shows that aggression is the winner heads up, whether the upside is enough for you to risk shoving to add 15% or so to your stack - that"s another matter. For me that"s more than enough, you only have an M of 12/13 left after the hand - easily a shoveable stack heads up.
Meta-game might come into later confrontations (can slow him down for when the blinds mean something), or my major, major preference is that it"s a chance to work towards a stack - more reasons to jam. It"s an impossible strategy to exploit too.
With no further information and as played, I make an assumption that he"s a little over aggro according to his stats, and call river. Buy-in level does influence me, as does his stack size. Hard to gauge the true feel of being at the table with this guy, so I could definitely be wrong.
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for the above calc, just take into consideration that dwh has based his model on villain open raising 100% of hands..
very similar to louis"s thread where he cc all the way to the river, again without much to go by, opinions as per played will sway from call to fold.. flip a coin on the river, sometimes you will be right, sometimes wrong..
as played plus with villains bet sizing and his stack size, i"d call on the river...
at micro and low stake mtts bet sizing can be a big give-away as the majority will not use the same line when bluffing as they do when they have a strong hand etc...
So the buy in was $1+0.10. I dont think its fair to just automatically say call with that fact though. As previously stated, I thought villain was more than competent.
why ask if its a call on the river then? i"d question competent in a $1 mtt, what is competent? i"m putting this bluntly, get rid of HEM, it will in the long run with practice hopefully allow you to get a better feel/gut instinct for the opponents... work harder at getting a read on a player, HEM will not tell you which lines and which bet sizes are a sign of a strong hand or weak hand, the bet sizing is often ignored, although it is one of the easiest ways to gather information about your opponent.... more useful than 25% vpip over 108 hands don"t you think?
other thoughts on river as played - if the value of the chips in the pot is most likely greater than the value of chips you will be left with then take a chance... eg - you fold then you will only have enough chips [approx 16bb"s] to survive a round or two of blinds [especially if the next level 75/150 is looming] you will almost certainly be pressed now to shove with just as mediocre hands and then be knocked out of the tournament.[agree?] even if you go on to double up, you still have to overcome major odds to build a stack.... just some noble logic to weigh up the decision :)
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Raise on that flop to around 650 in position, If he"s raised pre with a bigger King pre then you"ll prob find out if you"re behind and save yourself the call call call down the streets and more chips.
Don"t do this.
Like the way you"ve played the hand thus far. Board is pretty dry so it"s a bit of a meh spot. Has he shown any tendencies to barrel off previously?
Why not do this George? Mark has ended up calling off 850 chips by the turn only to fold on the river. Are you just gonna call this guy down every street and hope you"re ahead or would there be a different plan?
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Well raise folding top pair to "see where you are" is generally bad because you effectively turn a strong hand into a bluff. You would need to be 100% confident he would not jam worse to correctly fold which then also means he doesn"t proceed with his weaker hands which you want to get value from.
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108 is an irrelevant sample, but doesn"t that say he c-bets 100% of the time on the flop? (or does that mean something else?)
Generally I don"t think this kind of software is ever likely to be any good in tournaments (unless you"re playing >4 tables at a time) - it will take a long long time to get a decent sample size on any opponents, and even when you do you"ll have met them at different points in the tournament so it won"t reflect a consistent background. It might be good for cash but I don"t think it"s worth it for MTT"s.
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I"d shove pre as a semi bluff
If he folds (as he will most of the time) you"ve added over 10% to your stack, if he calls you"re "likely" to be about 2:1 underdog (hence why it"s a semi bluff not a value shove) - but you"re getting pretty short stacked, if you"re not going to take a risk now then how bad does your situation have to be before you do?
Never heard of a pre flop semi bluff
;D neither had I until the voices in my head told me about it earlier
little giggle
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Raise on that flop to around 650 in position, If he"s raised pre with a bigger King pre then you"ll prob find out if you"re behind and save yourself the call call call down the streets and more chips.
Don"t do this.
Like the way you"ve played the hand thus far. Board is pretty dry so it"s a bit of a meh spot. Has he shown any tendencies to barrel off previously?
Why not do this George? Mark has ended up calling off 850 chips by the turn only to fold on the river. Are you just gonna call this guy down every street and hope you"re ahead or would there be a different plan?
I"m not hoping. When I play poker I make decisions based history/reads and game flow. You"re raising the flop not for value but for information which is effectivley allowing your opponent to play his hand perfectly against you ie: fold worse/call or raise with better or even worse getting bluffed off the hand by a capable opponent.
Don"t be afraid to play through the streets. Poker is about making correct decisions and playing a multi street pot and getting put to the test is something I very much enjoy about the game, especially when you make the right one. Granted it"s tough to know whether folding was the right one in this case but imo mporter played the hand well. I think jamming pre id fine but don"t mind a call here pre BoB either
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Sorry - but this is just silly old me - I am all in post flop - but then analysing is not my forte ;D
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The high variance game is old school Duke. Get with the new programme please.
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Raise on that flop to around 650 in position, If he"s raised pre with a bigger King pre then you"ll prob find out if you"re behind and save yourself the call call call down the streets and more chips.
Don"t do this.
Like the way you"ve played the hand thus far. Board is pretty dry so it"s a bit of a meh spot. Has he shown any tendencies to barrel off previously?
Why not do this George? Mark has ended up calling off 850 chips by the turn only to fold on the river. Are you just gonna call this guy down every street and hope you"re ahead or would there be a different plan?
I"m not hoping. When I play poker I make decisions based history/reads and game flow. You"re raising the flop not for value but for information which is effectivley allowing your opponent to play his hand perfectly against you ie: fold worse/call or raise with better or even worse getting bluffed off the hand by a capable opponent.
Don"t be afraid to play through the streets. Poker is about making correct decisions and playing a multi street pot and getting put to the test is something I very much enjoy about the game, especially when you make the right one. Granted it"s tough to know whether folding was the right one in this case but imo mporter played the hand well. I think jamming pre id fine but don"t mind a call here pre BoB either
I agree with what you"re saying to a certain extent here George but by calling the raise pre you"re effectively hoping to hit the kind of flop that"s come down in this hand. Based on the info you have on the player, blinds, stack sizes etc we really can"t afford to be calling down unless we"re pretty sure we"re ahead of their range when the flop lands. If Mark believes he"s ahead on that flop and turn then he"s got to call the river.
With the stack sizes as they are this guy has enough chips to be small-ballling his way to hitting any ace, any set etc etc so why not put the question back to him on that flop rather than effectively giving him a free card? If Mark has a stack of around 5k in this spot then playing down the streets in position is fine, but IMO not a good idea with this current situation.
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You are in a way ahead/way behind situation with top pair on a dry flop. If you are ahead then your opponent has between 2-3 outs. So rasing on this flop with top pair "for information" is somthing that good players rarely do. ( in fact good tourny players actually hate the phrase "raise for information") If you are going to raise on the flop, then folding top pair if he shoves is really bad and spewy, Let him keep bluffing if he is behind. If he is ahead then so be it, I would just call turn and river.
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You are in a way ahead/way behind situation with top pair on a dry flop. If you are ahead then your opponent has between 2-3 outs. So rasing on this flop with top pair "for information" is somthing that good players rarely do. ( in fact good tourny players actually hate the phrase "raise for information") If you are going to raise on the flop, then folding top pair if he shoves is really bad and spewy, Let him keep bluffing if he is behind. If he is ahead then so be it, I would just call turn and river.
My point above is that by calling the flop turn and river you leave yourself with around 800 chips, is that not worse and more spewy if you"re behind? You"re also not necessarily folding behind a re-raise shove on the flop if you have information suggesting the villain is bullying you with any 2, missed ace, lower pair etc etc. If he has a bigger king, whichever way you play this you"re done for unless you can get the correct information you need before spewing off all your chips. If you allow the villain to dictate and he"s playing 6/6 or 2/2 then you"ve effectively let him hit his boat by just calling the flop and turn. I"d be surprised if anyone on this forum hasn"t felt that pain on more than one occasion.
"Raising for information" may well be a bit old school but can still be used in the right spots IMO, show me a "good player" who"s never done this in their career coz I"ll put money on the fact most of them have.
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Just because it can be ok in certain spots does not mean it is good here. raising for value or raising as a bluff? By raise folding you are effectively bluffing with a huge hand BvB
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You are in a way ahead/way behind situation with top pair on a dry flop. If you are ahead then your opponent has between 2-3 outs. So rasing on this flop with top pair "for information" is somthing that good players rarely do. ( in fact good tourny players actually hate the phrase "raise for information") If you are going to raise on the flop, then folding top pair if he shoves is really bad and spewy, Let him keep bluffing if he is behind. If he is ahead then so be it, I would just call turn and river.
My point above is that by calling the flop turn and river you leave yourself with around 800 chips, is that not worse and more spewy if you"re behind? You"re also not necessarily folding behind a re-raise shove on the flop if you have information suggesting the villain is bullying you with any 2, missed ace, lower pair etc etc. If he has a bigger king, whichever way you play this you"re done for unless you can get the correct information you need before spewing off all your chips. If you allow the villain to dictate and he"s playing 6/6 or 2/2 then you"ve effectively let him hit his boat by just calling the flop and turn. I"d be surprised if anyone on this forum hasn"t felt that pain on more than one occasion.
"Raising for information" may well be a bit old school but can still be used in the right spots IMO, show me a "good player" who"s never done this in their career coz I"ll put money on the fact most of them have.
I can probably name 100 players who haven"t raised for info but I don"t know how we"re going to prove it either way
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Based on the info you have on the player, blinds, stack sizes etc we really can"t afford to be calling down unless we"re pretty sure we"re ahead of their range when the flop lands. If Mark believes he"s ahead on that flop and turn then he"s got to call the river.
This would be true against a maniacal villain we believed capable of firing 3 barrells with air and giving him enough rope would exploit his tendencies.
It would seem OP doesn"t feel that is the case with this villain and that should change how we respond considerably. We flat pre, hit top pair ip on this flop ( K33 ), villain should be cbetting 100% here since there"s only a small probability we have hit. Equally, there"s only a small probability that villain may have hit so we can.........
Raise versus this wide range and take down a small pot when villain correctly folds the large part of his range we beat or calls/reraises with the small dominating part of his range. This is good for villain and bad for us.
With the stack sizes as they are this guy has enough chips to be small-ballling his way to hitting any ace, any set etc etc so why not put the question back to him on that flop rather than effectively giving him a free card?
This is the standard logic used frequently to support the "raise for info" position. Players remember being outdrawn, they don"t like it and take steps so as it does"nt happen again. You"ll hear statements like " I bet big to get him off his draws" etc. etc.
Being outdrawn happens and is a small factor in an overall profitable strategy. If you are not allowing your opponent to put chips in the pot with......
"any ace" 3 outs
"any pocket pair" 2 outs
You are missing shedloads of value.
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Based on the info you have on the player, blinds, stack sizes etc we really can"t afford to be calling down unless we"re pretty sure we"re ahead of their range when the flop lands. If Mark believes he"s ahead on that flop and turn then he"s got to call the river.
This would be true against a maniacal villain we believed capable of firing 3 barrells with air and giving him enough rope would exploit his tendencies.
It would seem OP doesn"t feel that is the case with this villain and that should change how we respond considerably. We flat pre, hit top pair ip on this flop ( K33 ), villain should be cbetting 100% here since there"s only a small probability we have hit. Equally, there"s only a small probability that villain may have hit so we can.........
Raise versus this wide range and take down a small pot when villain correctly folds the large part of his range we beat or calls/reraises with the small dominating part of his range. This is good for villain and bad for us.
With the stack sizes as they are this guy has enough chips to be small-ballling his way to hitting any ace, any set etc etc so why not put the question back to him on that flop rather than effectively giving him a free card?
This is the standard logic used frequently to support the "raise for info" position. Players remember being outdrawn, they don"t like it and take steps so as it does"nt happen again. You"ll hear statements like " I bet big to get him off his draws" etc. etc.
Being outdrawn happens and is a small factor in an overall profitable strategy. If you are not allowing your opponent to put chips in the pot with......
"any ace" 3 outs
"any pocket pair" 2 outs
You are missing shedloads of value.
you say this but the player has raised pre-flop and then we have just checked top pair ??/, to me as i said earlier I would want to see where i am by betting ( old school ) :)
but as to loads of value any k with a bigger kicker also has us beat, to go all the way and then fold was not for me , would have either took it down on the flop or folded this hand ???
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you say this but the player has raised pre-flop and then we have just checked top pair ??/,
We didn"t check top pair, we flat called flop and turn cbets.
to me as i said earlier I would want to see where i am by betting ( old school ) :)
If when you play poker your motivation is "to see where i am by betting", does "getting value from your hand" ever become an option? This is a basic fundamental and neither old or new school.
but as to loads of value any k with a bigger kicker also has us beat, to go all the way and then fold was not for me , would have either took it down on the flop or folded this hand ???
The "loads of value" comes from the hands in villains range that can"t stand a raise but will continue to put chips in bad so long as we don"t tell villain he"s behind.
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Their range is polarised there IMO as that is effectively an AI. Don"t think I"m ever folding here in a sb v bb battle. Fwiw I 3 bet/fold pre
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What stats are you running at here Mark? What other history bvb do you have with villian?
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"Fwiw I 3 bet/fold pre"
So are you semi bluffing preflop? Or are you raising for information?
LoL, sorry just had to say it.
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What stats are you running at here Mark? What other history bvb do you have with villian?
Sigh... please dont make me talk about this hand again :-[
Next to no history with villain or not that I can remember as was prob playing a few tables (bad excuse for not recognising history). I think I was playing around 13/13, something along those lines.
I have now given up on Holdem manager for MTT"s because my free trial expired I was making too many decisions on the numbers and not looking for true reads.
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I was making too many decisions on the numbers and not looking for true reads.
The numbers are reads
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"Fwiw I 3 bet/fold pre"
So are you semi bluffing preflop? Or are you raising for information?
LoL, sorry just had to say it.
LOL
BOTH