Amateur Poker Association & Tour
Poker Forum => Strategy => Topic started by: Mikeyboy9361 on October 25, 2011, 13:50:33 PM
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Thoughts on this hand please.
Recently moved to a new table and had lost about 10K before the move in a button raise v BB battle. So with about 17k blinds just gone up to 400/800/100(?). Probs about 90 people left.
Sat in late position, it is folded to MP who sits with about 35/40K, he raises to 2.2K, I look down at 99.
Whats your move?
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Any further info on MP? Do u know him? Does he know u? Is he young in a hoody? Is he old in a knitted jumper?
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Ship !
You on 21 bb and can increase your stack by 20-25 % if all fold . If get called hope for ak, aq for double up or if bigger pair prey for 2 outer lol
Depending on player aswell 88 , 77 maybe lower, may call thinking they in a race.
What did you do ?
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What did you do ?
Not yettttttttttttttttttttt please :)
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Ship !
You on 21 bb and can increase your stack by 20-25 % if all fold . If get called hope for ak, aq for double up or if bigger pair prey for 2 outer lol
Depending on player aswell 88 , 77 maybe lower, may call thinking they in a race.
What did you do ?
this - I can"t see any other option with that size chip stack
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blinds just gone up to 400/800/100(?). Probs about 90 people left.
45 min Clock?
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Yep 45 minute clock, its about 9pm ish! I know the player, but have never played live against him, he is about 45-50 ish (I think !!!!???)
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Yep 45 minute clock, its about 9pm ish! I know the player, but have never played live against him, he is about 45-50 ish (I think !!!!???)
By knowing him , do u know anything about his image, or does he have any views on urs? In a vacuum, shove is probs best, but w/ an aggro dynamic I like 4,700/call to induce. Would rather fold than flat.
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Knew very little of the way he played, but would have thought of him as solid rather than aggro. Don"t know of his views on my play, we have come across each other on line occasionally, with no obvious dynamics.
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All your chips
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As long as there is no monster or short stacks in blinds I prob make it 5k. Don"t like the shove cos u r mostly flipping/ behind when called so u have to get it thru a big % of time.
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All your chips
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As long as there is no monster or short stacks in blinds I prob make it 5k. Don"t like the shove cos u r mostly flipping/ behind when called so u have to get it thru a big % of time.
So are you really planning to put nearly a 1/3 of your chips in, fold to a shove and leave yourself with about 15bb?
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Seems really close tbh, we have a 20 bb stack far from the points and $$ so not in a huge hurry to take small edges.
Our read "solid rather than aggro" suggests his mp opening range is tightish, that range is the key factor in our decision.
If its something like 77+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo .......
3 betting will find a fold 50+% so if we bet 4,700 ~27% of our stack we win 4300 when we find a fold. Its probably marginally +ev but is a high variance option, if villain flats we have position but again, high variance.
I prefer 3 bet to ~ 4700 over jamming and dont hate folding.
Edit: Jamming will turn a profit.
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As the young dealer at Luton would say
"all of it!!"
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with the perfect stack size for jamming, against the right player I would be jamming far worse than 99 here.
At this stage of tourney, 99 is way up in the jam range. Ship it.
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make a nice pile of your chips, put the penguin on top and walk it straight in to the centre. double up or go home baby
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As long as there is no monster or short stacks in blinds I prob make it 5k. Don"t like the shove cos u r mostly flipping/ behind when called so u have to get it thru a big % of time.
So are you really planning to put nearly a 1/3 of your chips in, fold to a shove and leave yourself with about 15bb?
Yes exactly this. Why go AI when 1/3 of AI gets the same job done?
If he 4 bets u are crushed anyway and I"m plenty good enough to come back from 15 bigs.
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As long as there is no monster or short stacks in blinds I prob make it 5k. Don"t like the shove cos u r mostly flipping/ behind when called so u have to get it thru a big % of time.
So are you really planning to put nearly a 1/3 of your chips in, fold to a shove and leave yourself with about 15bb?
Yes exactly this. Why go AI when 1/3 of AI gets the same job done?
If he 4 bets u are crushed anyway and I"m plenty good enough to come back from 15 bigs.
What do u think his 4b range is? We are very likely getting the correct price against this range. If I 3b small, its to try and get lower pairs to jam.
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AA KK QQ AK
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As long as there is no monster or short stacks in blinds I prob make it 5k. Don"t like the shove cos u r mostly flipping/ behind when called so u have to get it thru a big % of time.
So are you really planning to put nearly a 1/3 of your chips in, fold to a shove and leave yourself with about 15bb?
Yes exactly this. Why go AI when 1/3 of AI gets the same job done?
If he 4 bets u are crushed anyway and I"m plenty good enough to come back from 15 bigs.
What do u think his 4b range is? We are very likely getting the correct price against this range. If I 3b small, its to try and get lower pairs to jam.
It"s irrelevant what his 4b range is - you"re too short stacked to 3 bet less than a shove. As AMRN said earlier, you have the perfect stack size for jamming with the perfect cards for doing it with - as he said you should be 3 bet jamming in this spot with worse hands than 99.
You shove for the fold equity and for the fact that you"re mainly going to be flipping if you"re going to be called - this is not a bad outcome.
Generalising - if you"re 50:50 when you"re called but your fold equity means you"ll only be called 50% of the time - that means shoving gives you a 75% chance of winning the hand.
If you take any less cautious line then you may have a better chance of creeping into the money - but there"s no profit in continually min cashing.
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AA KK QQ AK
That probably is his 4 bet range - but what do you do when he calls - which he normally will - and the flop comes with any A, K, Q, J or T? Or if it"s coordinated for straight or flush possibilities?
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AA KK QQ AK
If you think that"s the extent of a typical 4b range, I would like to be on your table please. ;)
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AA KK QQ AK
If you think that"s the extent of a typical 4b range, I would like to be on your table please. ;)
lol - I actually think that"s feasible, but as I just said above I don"t think his choices are shove or fold and that"s where the problem arises as to what to do next.
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I would suggest that open folding>3bet/folding.
But I don"t like folding
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I would suggest that open folding>3bet/folding.
But I don"t like folding
def agree with this, but do think vs some villains 3b/call>>>shove.
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What I"m saying is it gives u a chance to get away with a playable stack when u are crushed by his 4bet range. He is not going to call or shove with JJ 1010 AJ AQ A10 KQ so u are getting a few better hands to fold and IMO 3 bet to 5k looks stronger than the shove anyway. U shove and might get called by some of these.
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What I"m saying is it gives u a chance to get away with a playable stack when u are crushed by his 4bet range. He is not going to call or shove with JJ 1010 AJ AQ A10 KQ so u are getting a few better hands to fold and IMO 3 bet to 5k looks stronger than the shove anyway. U shove and might get called by some of these.
If we 3b to 5k, we are then getting over 2/1 on calling the shove with 35% equity vs this range. 3b folding would be a mistake with this stack size.
Edit: I would argue/hope his range would be wider than this.
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Yea I might 3b/ call to induce but not typically is this comp as a large majority of players will peel, to see if they get a favourable flop for their hand. For the relatively short amount of time I was in players generally played their stack sizes badly
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Well if those % are correct which they prob are then 3 bet calling/folding are a mistake and it"s a push/fold pre so I guess I would fold pre.
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Well if those % are correct which they prob are then 3 bet calling/folding are a mistake and it"s a push/fold pre so I guess I would fold pre.
I"m not one for rules but I don"t think I would be 3b/folding anything out of a sub 25bb stack with antes in play.
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I would suggest that open folding>3bet/folding.
But I don"t like folding
open folding>3bet/folding, but you can"t fold pre with that hand and that stack size.
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We can bet 5k so as to...
Fold when he jams.
We will burn our equity (33%-48%) and sometimes (however rarely) fold a dominating hand.
We are gonna have the right price to call so folding is a mistake.
Induce and never ever fold.
It's debateable whether or not this encourages villain to get it in with many more hands than he would call our jam with. Lets assume he calls the jam with..
QQ+,AKs,AKo versus this calling range...
Villain folds 78% when we 3b.
We have 36% equity when called.
Our EV is +3820 chips.
We exit the tourney 14%
So we induce him to get it in with a wider range..
TT+,88-66,AJs+,AJo+ versus this calling range...
Villain folds 37% when we 3b.
We have 48% equity when called.
Our EV is +5850 chips.
We exit the tourney 33%
If you consider that you have an edge over the field, which is hard to gauge and usually overstated, then you probably should take the lower variance option since your tourney life and stack equity have more value.
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We can bet 5k so as to...
Fold when he jams.
We will burn our equity (33%-48%) and sometimes (however rarely) fold a dominating hand.
We are gonna have the right price to call so folding is a mistake.
Induce and never ever fold.
It's debateable whether or not this encourages villain to get it in with many more hands than he would call our jam with. Lets assume he calls the jam with..
QQ+,AKs,AKo versus this calling range...
Villain folds 78% when we 3b.
We have 36% equity when called.
Our EV is +3820 chips.
We exit the tourney 14%
So we induce him to get it in with a wider range..
TT+,88-66,AJs+,AJo+ versus this calling range...
Villain folds 37% when we 3b.
We have 48% equity when called.
Our EV is +5850 chips.
We exit the tourney 33%
If you consider that you have an edge over the field, which is hard to gauge and usually overstated, then you probably should take the lower variance option since your tourney life and stack equity have more value.
Im getting bored of saying "Great post Brendan," but...
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(http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/3953/shove.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/853/shove.jpg/)
model for when villain folds approx 75% with 3 PLAYERS YET TO ACT BEHIND who call 3.5% of the time!!!!
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tighter opening range for villain , folds 65% of the time... 3 YET TO ACT BEHIND WHO CALL TOP 3.5%...
(http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/1739/shove2.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/256/shove2.jpg/)
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Some great feedback guys! Well the line I took was that I had the perfect jamming stack and did so, with his stack I couldn"t see him folding to a standard 3 bet, and I felt that it would be really spewy to 3 bet fold when scare cards hit the flop.
The villain in this piece was eventual runner up Ian Thompson (Pables). And he tanked for ages before calling with QQ. So IMO the jam was the correct move even though I lost the hand, Ian would have folded out lesser hands that were worth an original raise. I chatted with ian about the hand later, as I couldn"t believe he took so long to make the call, but Ian was taking the team event dynamics into the equation, otherwise I am sure he would have snap called. ;)
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hope he got you a pint for the horrid slow/nit roll.
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solid rather than aggro.
Need to review that read imho and his opening range.
The villain in this piece was eventual runner up Ian Thompson (Pables). And he tanked for ages before calling with QQ. So IMO the jam was the correct move even though I lost the hand, Ian would have folded out lesser hands that were worth an original raise. I chatted with ian about the hand later, as I couldn"t believe he took so long to make the call, but Ian was taking the team event dynamics into the equation, otherwise I am sure he would have snap called. ;)
Will run some numbers later but intuitively I suspect that this is not a good move versus Ians opening range. Dont think he folds enough.
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hope he got you a pint for the horrid slow/nit roll.
he"s a card isn"t he ;D
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It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain ??? put down hands such as jc jh, ts tc , any lower pair and ac qd and below. I don"t have the same computer up there as Brendan but there were the team dynamics to think of,-to be honest I thought of not much else for 1.1/2 days-, which is what made this tournament so fantastic and I eventually made the correct call, it was never a slow roll just an old man trying to get to make the right decision.
A pleasure to finally meet you Mike and as I say Great bet
The Nit
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It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain ??? put down hands such as jc jh, ts tc , any lower pair and ac qd and below. I don"t have the same computer up there as Brendan but there were the team dynamics to think of,-to be honest I thought of not much else for 1.1/2 days-, which is what made this tournament so fantastic and I eventually made the correct call, it was never a slow roll just an old man trying to get to make the right decision.
A pleasure to finally meet you Mike and as I say Great bet
The Nit
Likewise Ian, and well played, it was a great run, a shame you couldn"t quite close it out, but I"m sure you had a ball.
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It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain ??? put down hands such as jc jh, ts tc , any lower pair and ac qd and below. I don"t have the same computer up there as Brendan but there were the team dynamics to think of,-to be honest I thought of not much else for 1.1/2 days-, which is what made this tournament so fantastic and I eventually made the correct call, it was never a slow roll just an old man trying to get to make the right decision.
A pleasure to finally meet you Mike and as I say Great bet
The Nit
ur seriously folding all those hands to this shove?
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I think with the TEAM dynamics involved as Ian"s said I would fold (hands listed above) also, however in an individual tourny not a chance.
The team element was certainly there to be exploited by any individuals who were playing for a team with no other runners left, or had been sent out to cause chaos. Our team captains instructions were for at least 5 of the 8 to make it into the points (top 50) so running any small margins needed a great deal of thought to be fair.
ps Mike good to share a table with you albeit briefly mate, see you soon I hope x
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I think with the TEAM dynamics involved as Ian"s said I would fold (hands listed above) also, however in an individual tourny not a chance.
The team element was certainly there to be exploited by any individuals who were playing for a team with no other runners left, or had been sent out to cause chaos. Our team captains instructions were for at least 5 of the 8 to make it into the points (top 50) so running any small margins needed a great deal of thought to be fair.
...
If 5 of your team scrape into the points you get 15 points,
if one of your team reaches the final table they get 41 points
The best way for your team to do well is for each team member to try and win the tournament
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It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain ??? put down hands such as jc jh, ts tc , any lower pair and ac qd and below.
ur seriously folding all those hands to this shove?
What do you think is Mikey"s 3 bet range here George?
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But Jon I think you"re proved wrong with 4 of the top 5 individuals including my team APAT Forum all failing to get medals in Team event :
Ian Thompson 2nd - APAT Forum
Karl McDonald 3rd - A World of Poker
John Murray 4th - Live Pub Poker League
George Lawson 5th - Newcastle Poker Forum
A great example of Team points scoring was for example silver medalists The Hendon Mob, had 6 in the top 50, but only one making it through to the top 20 x
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Will run some numbers later but intuitively I suspect that this is not a good move versus Ians opening range. Dont think he folds enough.
Confounded by the numbers yet again. Ignoring Noble"s "players yet to act" factor ( temporarily ) the numbers are suprisingly revealing.
We have a spot where an uber nit open raises from mp and a nit 3bet jams from lp with 99.....
Raiser will fold 58% :o Assuming Ian folds JJ :o :o
99 has 36% equity when called :o
cEV for jamming is +3383 :o :o :o
That all has to be weighted against.......
27% You will exit the tourney
58% You will find a fold and win a pot of 4300 to increase your stack by 25%
15% You will double up to 36100 ( a healthy 45bb"s ) a stack increase of 112%
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But Jon I think you"re proved wrong with 4 of the top 5 individuals including my team APAT Forum all failing to get medals in Team event :
Ian Thompson 2nd - APAT Forum
Karl McDonald 3rd - A World of Poker
John Murray 4th - Live Pub Poker League
George Lawson 5th - Newcastle Poker Forum
A great example of Team points scoring was for example silver medalists The Hendon Mob, had 6 in the top 50, but only one making it through to the top 20 x
You"re looking at the map to a team medal upside down ;D
The relevant stat is that the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place teams all had a player on the final table.
It"s a necessary - but not sufficient - condition to put your team into contention.
If you play weakly because of the team element it could harm your chances of making the final table - and your final table could have been what tips your team into a winning position.
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(http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/3953/shove.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/853/shove.jpg/)
model for when villain folds approx 75% with 3 PLAYERS YET TO ACT BEHIND who call 3.5% of the time!!!!
Have"nt ever seen ev calcs done this way Noble, though it does make sense that the likelihood of getting a cold caller would be a factor.
Where can we find that tool?
Effective stacks are 17000 btw.
Are the calling ranges for button, SB & BB as wide as 3.5%, player dependent obviously but facing a nit raise and a nit 3bet.......
JJ+,AQs+,AKo
or
TT+,AKs,AKo
seems a wide estimation ???
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It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain ??? put down hands such as jc jh, ts tc , any lower pair and ac qd and below. I don"t have the same computer up there as Brendan but there were the team dynamics to think of,-to be honest I thought of not much else for 1.1/2 days-, which is what made this tournament so fantastic and I eventually made the correct call, it was never a slow roll just an old man trying to get to make the right decision.
A pleasure to finally meet you Mike and as I say Great bet
The Nit
ur seriously folding all those hands to this shove?
possibly George :-\ , I am pretty tight which does have its plus points, but then again I am starting to learn more as I continue to play with better players and most are in all seriousness.
Ty
Ian
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It was a great bet in my opinion and as has been pointed out earlier in the thread, it"s the kind of bet to make the villain ??? put down hands such as jc jh, ts tc , any lower pair and ac qd and below.
ur seriously folding all those hands to this shove?
What do you think is Mikey"s 3 bet range here George?
it"s difficult for me obv not knowing how tight OR is but surely in this spot all hands above are a snap with the possible exception of AQ
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(http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/3953/shove.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/853/shove.jpg/)
model for when villain folds approx 75% with 3 PLAYERS YET TO ACT BEHIND who call 3.5% of the time!!!!
Have"nt ever seen ev calcs done this way Noble, though it does make sense that the likelihood of getting a cold caller would be a factor.
Where can we find that tool?
Effective stacks are 17000 btw.
Are the calling ranges for button, SB & BB as wide as 3.5%, player dependent obviously but facing a nit raise and a nit 3bet.......
JJ+,AQs+,AKo
or
TT+,AKs,AKo
seems a wide estimation ???
21000 my fault i was in a rush :) but i left it because it only changes the numbers by 200 or so, no read was given as per Ian, nor that u guys consider him nitty lol [sry Ian] :)
That model above was 30% open calling the top 7.5% to a stealing stack shoving [mikey] with 3 to act behind and ian calling both stacks, again mike gave no image for himself [sry mike didn"t know u was a nit :)]
i"ve left the link for eric"s sheets before but here they are - http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/ - u might have to join as a free member [PXF] to be able to use them...
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21000 my fault i was in a rush :) but i left it because it only changes the numbers by 200 or so, no read was given as per Ian, nor that u guys consider him nitty lol [sry Ian] :)
That model above was 30% open calling the top 7.5% to a stealing stack shoving [mikey] with 3 to act behind and ian calling both stacks, again mike gave no image for himself [sry mike didn"t know u was a nit :)]
i"ve left the link for eric"s sheets before but here they are - http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/ - u might have to join as a free member [PXF] to be able to use them...
Calling 7.5% ? he only opens slightly wider than that.
Any chance you can run......
17k effective 10% open and 3% calling range for OR and the 3 to act.
Curious and PXF won"t let me in for some reason.
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Any chance you can run......
17k effective 10% open and 3% calling range for OR and the 3 to act.
Curious and PXF won"t let me in for some reason.
(http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/1732/shove6.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/4/shove6.jpg/)
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(http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/3953/shove.jpg) (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/853/shove.jpg/)
model for when villain folds approx 75% with 3 PLAYERS YET TO ACT BEHIND who call 3.5% of the time!!!!
Have"nt ever seen ev calcs done this way Noble, though it does make sense that the likelihood of getting a cold caller would be a factor.
Where can we find that tool?
Effective stacks are 17000 btw.
Are the calling ranges for button, SB & BB as wide as 3.5%, player dependent obviously but facing a nit raise and a nit 3bet.......
JJ+,AQs+,AKo
or
TT+,AKs,AKo
seems a wide estimation ???
21000 my fault i was in a rush :) but i left it because it only changes the numbers by 200 or so, no read was given as per Ian, nor that u guys consider him nitty lol [sry Ian] :)
That model above was 30% open calling the top 7.5% to a stealing stack shoving [mikey] with 3 to act behind and ian calling both stacks, again mike gave no image for himself [sry mike didn"t know u was a nit :)]
i"ve left the link for eric"s sheets before but here they are - http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/ - u might have to join as a free member [PXF] to be able to use them...
Neither did I! ;)
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Any chance you can run......
17k effective 10% open and 3% calling range for OR and the 3 to act.
Curious and PXF won"t let me in for some reason.
(http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/1732/shove6.jpg)
(http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/4/shove6.jpg/)
Thanks Mark.
Its interesting to note that since all small pairs have roughly the same equity versus OR"s calling range, suprisingly a reshove with 22 (31.64%) has very nearly the same value as a reshove with TT (33.65%). :o :o
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What range can we profitably reshove here vs a 3% calling range?
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What range can we profitably reshove here vs a 3% calling range?
ATC has 25% equity and +930 cEV
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What range can we profitably reshove here vs a 3% calling range?
ATC has 25% equity and +930 cEV
your getting there Bren, ATC with no one to act behind your very nearly spot on, 3 to act behind with a real nit range of QQ+ AKs would be in the ball park of around a slight minus to a very small positive... all dependent if Ian was to fold any part of his 3% call range even just once after seeing the action, if he calls mikes shove everytime plus 1 caller behind, then mike is a very small winner ev wise... if Ian folds any part of his 3% call range then if mike shoved 100% he would have a cEV of approx half a BB+...
Marty at the bottom of eric"s sheets the Winning Chances Needed to Reshove (given villain"s calling %) box gives the absolute minimum win % u"d need to break even.. [assuming that our assumptions for the players ranges are correct of course :)]
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I am loving this thread
Ty Brendan and Mark in particular
NEVER STOP learning FTW
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i just wish i had the feintest idea what they were on about Ian :)
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What range can we profitably reshove here vs a 3% calling range?
ATC has 25% equity and +930 cEV
On reflection, thats kinda misleading. Problem is the ATC range includes AA,KK,AK and those hands pick up the slack in the equation for 72o for example. That said, 72o on its own has equity of 19.92% and is only negative by 203 chips.
The problem here is that from our perspective, we only ever need to evaluate EV for an exact hand, our decision, jam or fold, is never about a range of hands, we can only ever shove with two exact cards so to assess the spot based on a shoving range is flawed and futile.
So to answer correctly, you can profitably shove any hand other than 72o. I do however stand corrected Noble, that there are 3 players yet to act will drag a couple more hands into the negative EV bracket but quite revealing nonetheless.
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The implications of "the surprises" revealed in this thread got me thinking of a poker dilemma I've often discussed but never really got anywhere with.
Is Phil Helmuth a great player, a good player on a heater or a fish on a heater?
We see a lot of PH hands and we often see, what appear to be and are widely criticised as, very flawed decisions. Yet! His results to date and especially recently are second to none. Why is that? Is it possible to play a truly flawed game over many many top end tournaments and succeed as PH's results suggest.
Early in this thread I suggested....
If you consider that you have an edge over the field, which is hard to gauge and usually overstated, then you probably should take the lower variance option since your tourney life and stack equity have more value.
Apologies for arrogantly quoting myself ;D ;D
Does PH get the balance just right, does he shun high variance and exploit his edge optimally?
Or
Is he a fish who runs good and gets paid handsomely with his big hands?
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The only people who should be entitled to call Phil Hellmuth a fish are those with a better record than him.
Great player IMO (also a very nice guy if you see past the showbiz image).
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The only people who should be entitled to call Phil Hellmuth a fish are those with a better record than him.
Great player IMO (also a very nice guy if you see past the showbiz image).
Just to clarify Stuart, I"m not calling him a fish, though lots of respected players do just that. I see him more as an enigma tbh and suspect that while he is prone to some plays that are described as fishy and lacking advanced understanding, those weaknesses are abundantly compensated for by the stronger attributes of his game. That is the conundrum afaic.
What part/parts of PH"s game are responsible for those phenominal results?
As far as his record, it"s undeniably phenomenal tbh. But, is it possible that record is more the result of run good?
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The only people who should be entitled to call Phil Hellmuth a fish are those with a better record than him.
Great player IMO (also a very nice guy if you see past the showbiz image).
That"s ridic thing to say Stu. Course you can pass judgement. Not saying he can"t play but he won the majority of his stuff when the game was unsolved. And some of his play is terrible. Just because I haven"t got the silverware he has doesn"t mean I can"t give my 2 cents
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The only people who should be entitled to call Phil Hellmuth a fish are those with a better record than him.
Great player IMO (also a very nice guy if you see past the showbiz image).
That"s ridic thing to say Stu. Course you can pass judgement. Not saying he can"t play but he won the majority of his stuff when the game was unsolved. And some of his play is terrible. Just because I haven"t got the silverware he has doesn"t mean I can"t give my 2 cents
I"m not saying people can"t give an opinion and of course some of his play is terrible, as is some of yours, and most of mine. ;D
I just think that the label of "fish" means he is a poor player which he isn"t. With regard his recent results is 3 2nd place finishes in WSOP events not enough to stop the "he was good 10 years ago" arguement?
BTW - his WSOPE Final table play was terrible.
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I just think that the label of "fish" means he is a poor player which he isn"t. With regard his recent results is 3 2nd place finishes in WSOP events not enough to stop the "he was good 10 years ago" argument?
BTW - his WSOPE Final table play was terrible.
I certainly didnt post this so we could discuss if PH is a fish. I will change that word in my post if you so wish :)
Was sorta hoping we could get beyond the "look at his results" or "He"s a dinosaur fish"
Anyone care to suggest some traits/skills of his we can call expert?
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Cant think of any skills of PH that are expert. But i do love watching him in televised cash games.
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Cant think of any skills of PH that are expert. But i do love watching him in televised cash games.
Thread"s gone off track, and funny how often threads turn into Hellmuth bashing threads. Clearly he is not the best cash player around, but his tournament record isn"t too shabby - and as for him getting all his bracelets when the game was unsolved.... he was desperately unlucky to not get at least two bracelets this year. IMO if Phil wasn"t so loud and brash, and didn"t draw the wrong sort of attention to himself, we wouldn"t be having this discussion (again) - we would simply accept that he is a consistently good tournament player.
As for the OP, and despite all the statistical analysis from various contributors, with a stack of ~20x, and in this position and at this stage of the tourney, I still can"t turn down the opportunity of shoving with 99 (and worse).
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Thanks for getting thread back on track Steve! And as you say, after having read the replys and seen all the stats, I am still quite happy with my play, thanks for all the detailed responses. What amazes me is that you guys can think all this stuff through before making a move, particularly on line! Don"t think I"ll ever get to those levels. :)
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Thanks for getting thread back on track Steve! And as you say, after having read the replys and seen all the stats, I am still quite happy with my play, thanks for all the detailed responses. What amazes me is that you guys can think all this stuff through before making a move, particularly on line! Don"t think I"ll ever get to those levels. :)
Thats not how it works unfortunately Mike, doing all the sums away from the table is helpful in consolidating your current, in game thought processes and can internalise new understandings which hopefully after time we can intuitively rely on with little effort.
Consider it like this, the work away from the tables, posting hands for advice, reading, doing EV calculations etc. thats the swans feet paddling hard beneath the surface.
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Thread"s gone off track, and funny how often threads turn into Hellmuth bashing threads.
I don"t consider it "off track" but can understand how it could be construed that way, if, you see it simply as an attempt at Hellmuth bashing.
Having established ( correct me if I"m wrong here ) that jamming 20 bb"s was a positive cEV move. It seemed logical to me to question whether it was our best option in £ EV and what factors we consider before opting for a high variance play.
I suspect that this is where Hellmuth excels and why I asked....
Does PH get the balance just right, does he shun high variance and exploit his edge optimally?
Is that a pertinent question? or off track Hellmuth bashing.
Clearly he is not the best cash player around, but his tournament record isn"t too shabby
Exactly, we are talking about a tournament specific scenario here.
As for the OP, and despite all the statistical analysis from various contributors, with a stack of ~20x, and in this position and at this stage of the tourney, I still can"t turn down the opportunity of shoving with 99 (and worse).
Has"nt all the statistical analysis suggested jamming was +cEV?
Do you think PH would jam 20 bb"s in this spot?
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Wasn"t having a dig Brendan - and fwiw I agree with everything you posted. The thread was def going into a Hellmuth bash though, and my point about his cash game play was specifically directed at the post which I quoted.
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Wasn"t having a dig Brendan - and fwiw I agree with everything you posted. The thread was def going into a Hellmuth bash though, and my point about his cash game play was specifically directed at the post which I quoted.
Do you think PH would jam 20 bb"s in this spot?
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Wasn"t having a dig Brendan - and fwiw I agree with everything you posted. The thread was def going into a Hellmuth bash though, and my point about his cash game play was specifically directed at the post which I quoted.
Do you think PH would jam 20 bb"s in this spot?
In this particular spot, yes I think he would. I think most decent "tournament players" would.
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Wasn"t having a dig Brendan - and fwiw I agree with everything you posted. The thread was def going into a Hellmuth bash though, and my point about his cash game play was specifically directed at the post which I quoted.
Do you think PH would jam 20 bb"s in this spot?
In this particular spot, yes I think he would. I think most decent "tournament players" would.
Yes 100%
Then have a massive rant about his bad luck when he lost the hand ;D
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According to recent evidence PH would not jam this spot, i belive he would want to take a lower variance play. But i do think most good winning tourny pros would get 99s AIPF with 20 BBs.
BTW Did u see the way he played 33s in his bust out hand of ME in vegas this year, think it was on Feature table. he just raised 3x with 20 BBs i think then calls a 3bet or somthing (surly he has to fold or jam pre, cant just call putting in 40% of you stack),
played it terrible by getting it in on flop. Cant really remember but it was lolbad. If someone could find it on youtube im sure its there.
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I suspect you"re not a fan then Will ;D
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[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTkNSOwpmp0[/youtube]
x
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I love watching him, but only for the weird things like this.
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Something similar if memory serves but can"t find a clip of a hand. Liv Boeree and some guy something like Piceci? at the San Remo EPT final table 2010 which Liv went onto win.
Went something like Piceci raise, Liv 3 bet and Piceci flat calls with pocket 6"s for like a third of his stack with around 20BB starting stack.
Flop comes 69T and a snap call of Liv"s all in with AK. Liv couldnt believe that he"d just flatted for a 3rd of his stack set mining..
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Finally found it...
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0qH--m7VeY[/youtube]
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The thread was def going into a Hellmuth bash though,
Would appear your concerns are vindicated :(
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The thread was def going into a Hellmuth bash though,
Would appear your concerns are vindicated :(
Not from me Brendan... total respect for the guy for his results.. just using my googling skills to find the video Will referred to x
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Not from me Brendan... total respect for the guy for his results.. just using my googling skills to find the video Will referred to x
Aiding and abetting Phil? ;D ;D
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Not from me Brendan... total respect for the guy for his results.. just using my googling skills to find the video Will referred to x
Aiding and abetting Phil? ;D ;D
;D Aiding for sure..... I"m too much of a nit for any betting though ;D
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Something similar if memory serves but can"t find a clip of a hand. Liv Boeree and some guy something like Piceci? at the San Remo EPT final table 2010 which Liv went onto win.
Went something like Piceci raise, Liv 3 bet and Piceci flat calls with pocket 6"s for like a third of his stack with around 20BB starting stack.
Flop comes 69T and a snap call of Liv"s all in with AK. Liv couldnt believe that he"d just flatted for a 3rd of his stack set mining..
in your video the commentator refers to the no ace or king strategy, whether right or wrong i leave that for u guys to decide if its GTO or if there are situations to be creative/different :)... its a stategy used for nitty opponents with tight 3bet ranges, rather than pushing pre and letting the nit see all 5 cards with the AK part of there 3bet range [thats what AK ideally wants, as it misses 2/3"s of flops] so the hero will flat and depending on there position will shove non AK flops OOP unless they hit a set :) and call jams or shove non AK flops to checks, whatever the action of there opponent when IP [unless they hit a set :)]
the idea behind it is that you are not forcing the race pre-flop, you are only pushing when you met be most likely ahead...
you are pretty much doomed if your opponent has AA or KK anyway, so it"s just which way is better? if we decide we are not folding 66 pre, which is the best way to play, do we go all in or flat call?
thats the jist of the strat. i"ll spare u all the maths behind it ;D
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I"m guessing mathematically its correct to do the stop and go with the 6"s? but only against one person i.e. in a heads up on the flop situation? Its not a move I"ve seen a great deal of though in APATs MTTs I"ve played in, see it a lot in SnG"s online though.
In the Phil Hellmuth clip though by the sounds of it the guy who 3-Bet his raise pre had some history with Phil and I just get the feeling the call and all in shove was a little tilty based on some previous, might be wrong though and PH might be employing a stop and go strategy although it doesnt feel like that to me.
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in your video the commentator refers to the no ace or king strategy, whether right or wrong i leave that for u guys to decide if its GTO or if there are situations to be creative/different :)... its a stategy used for nitty opponents with tight 3bet ranges, rather than pushing pre and letting the nit see all 5 cards with the AK part of there 3bet range [thats what AK ideally wants, as it misses 2/3"s of flops] so the hero will flat and depending on there position will shove non AK flops OOP unless they hit a set :) and call jams or shove non AK flops to checks, whatever the action of there opponent when IP [unless they hit a set :)]
the idea behind it is that you are not forcing the race pre-flop, you are only pushing when you met be most likely ahead...
you are pretty much doomed if your opponent has AA or KK anyway, so it"s just which way is better? if we decide we are not folding 66 pre, which is the best way to play, do we go all in or flat call?
thats the jist of the strat. i"ll spare u all the maths behind it ;D
Might have some merit when you"re oop and get to act first on the flop. But having 3bet pre and seen a flop with 1:1 spr effective, folding the flop ever seems like a mistake tbh and I dont think there are many/any who ever fold.
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ALL poker advice/strategy is pooh, because in an evolving game very little is truly gospel... sometimes swimming upstream against commonly held poker parameters of reason can be good u know :) DONT FOLLOW THE HERD ;)
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ALL poker advice/strategy is pooh
:o
GG poker books... WP
(http://withtheresistance.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/bookburning460.jpg)
Still with winter setting in... its all good
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nice pic above, below from a book which in its simplicity i quite like -
(http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/3188/range.jpg)
at heart i am in the camp of playing a style like a regressive form of marine life whilst working out how nits and std regs will adjust :-X
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I really like that diagram ;D
What book is that taken from?
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Raiser"s Edge: Tournament-Poker Strategies for Today"s Aggressive Game
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Raisers-Edge-Tournament-Poker-Strategies-Aggressive/dp/193539648X
http://www.amazon.com/Raisers-Edge-Tournament-Poker-Strategies-ebook/dp/B0058DXPYW%3FSubscriptionId%3D163D3GD8EQRM8BX0VAG2%26tag%3Dnewworldtradingl%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3DB0058DXPYW
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Excellent thanks! Ordered and on its way.