I"m not trying to justyfy anything and as said before shoving felt wrong as soon as the hand finished. Looking after I"m sure shoving was right Whats he calling with apart from set or flopped str8 whats infront of me?
without getting to far into cbet ranges/texture theory plus player style, flop textures and reasons for and against cbetting or delayed cbetting etc... below is a attempt to try to get you thinking beyond i have a over pair...
readless - villain has got jiggy with Axs when he had a FD on the flop, i assume when he or the villain were fairly shallow as his current stack size is only 29bb and he has folded to a cbet on a Q77 flop.... nothing out of the ordinary, so std assumptions readless basically...
flop 589 rainbow
1st p/f thoughts - whats his range to call our ep raise - 22-QQ maybe even KK AA a very very small amount of the time SC"s 56 67 89 9T , BW"s TJs QJs KJs KQs add Axs AQo as well.... so a reasonble call range of 10 to 12% to analyse plus lets also say/assume villain check calls our cbet with overs that have gut str8s minimum then his possible range to check call could be -
QQ-55,A9s A8s,KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s so equity wise we are behind to his continuing range when he calls our cbet, add in a very very small % of the time that he might flat AA KK then our equity is slightly worse [obviously]....
this is where we get into the realm of delayed cbetting these type of textures when the flop textures helps villains range far more than our own, delay cbet our air range and our strong and nutted top part range, check behind our middle range with decent SD equity but can continue if villain checks twice or leads out small etc etc.... the other realm is cbetting the flop for protection and value, but not to small, we vary cbets according to possible outs that villain may have that will improve him to the best hand... both cbet strategies depend on your own style of play, villain style and stack sizes, any reads etc etc....
we decide to overbet jam turn bricks approx 85k into 40k if he checks - lets assume he only calls with A9s tptk [3combos] 9Tss top pair plus a spade draw [1combo] and TJss oesd plus a FD [1combo] , we get approx 5 calls which we are ahead but still get outdrawn 25% against those combos, we get 33 folds but we get 27 calls with us behind with only at most a 5% chance of sucking out against those 27combos... so its -Cev , its even worse if we get into $ev calc"s [icm]...
the above is assuming he check calls gut overs oop and underpairs 66 77, take away a % of the time the overs and underpairs c/c then the figures get far worse.
to be profitable to jam turn the villain needs to be calling pretty wide p/f and check calling really wide, hard to assume with no reads, so expect plenty of times where we get stacked if we continue to do this move, leaky, what do you reckon?? awkward stack sizes, not the best flop texture we could hope for and we are currently 2nd with 11 left etc etc....
i wrote the above in hope that it gets u thinking....
