Call or Fold ?

[Chipaccrual]

DTD Deepstack Super Satellite last night.  29 players left, top 21 get a £336 seat, 22nd-26th get their £55 buyin back.

Sat on 60k of chips, average is 50k, blinds are 1k/2k/200

Playing 7 handed, folds round to the small blind, who shoves allin for 28k total. (Little relevant info on this player)

You are holding   in the big blind.

Call and win, you have 90k+ and can pretty much blind away for a seat
Call and lose, you have 30k
Fold and you sit above average stack with 58k


Are you calling or folding and why ?

[kevod85]

I also played this last night and at this point we were pretty much level on chips. I folded AK in the BB to a mid pos raise and a shove from the SB so this is a defiante fold for me. Maybe im just a nit......

[mporter123]

Fold.

My gut feeling is something like A9o+, 77+.

Its very read dependent and he should be shoving pretty wide here. Were so rarely dominating much though and we can put the pressure onto short stacks in better spots with an above average stack.

I would likely be calling if he had a little bit less - 10/11bbs.  

[s4ooter]

Snap fold AINEC

There are better spots.... And u can raise and take it enough to get a seat without resistance

[dwh103]

Easy fold, and it isn"t even close. The (albeit limited) DTD sats I"ve played have been dreadful, even if people don"t knock themselves out you can cruise to a seat with lower risk options.

I think if you had a top 5% hand it"d warrant a little bit of consideration, but my calling range is ridic tight here.

[deanp27]

Folding in a sat spot like this

[Swinebag]

Yes fold for me too in a sat. Call it off in a tourney though

[poker_jason]

Standard fold for a satellite - you"d be amazed at what you can and can"t call with applying proper strategy.

Good luck.

[Chipaccrual]

Yeah, completely agree with you all, it"s a definite fold.

As you all seem so wise, could someone please explain to me why I decided to call, he showed K6os, and spiked a king.

Yes, it was getting late, and yes, it had been a long day, but why would I do that ?

[AAroddersAA]

Yeah, completely agree with you all, it"s a definite fold.

As you all seem so wise, could someone please explain to me why I decided to call, he showed K6os, and spiked a king.

Yes, it was getting late, and yes, it had been a long day, but why would I do that ?

I would likely call, it is standard in any tournament that is not a Satellite as I pretty much never play them. It is the wrong play but at the table whilst playing it"s not always easy to think through spots which are not "normal".

[Swinebag]

Yeah, completely agree with you all, it"s a definite fold.

As you all seem so wise, could someone please explain to me why I decided to call, he showed K6os, and spiked a king.

Yes, it was getting late, and yes, it had been a long day, but why would I do that ?

Everyone knows you are beating his range (hence call it off in a tourney) but it"s a satty and you are not trying to win etc...

Oh and 50p please  

[Chipaccrual]

Just curious, but ignoring potential ranges, let"s say the SB shoves and shows his cards.

What"s the best hand he could show that would make you call in this situation ?

Are you calling A4os here as you have the hand dominated, but wouldn"t want to go up against any two live cards ?

Also, what"s the minimum hand in the BB that you would be calling with (assuming you don"t know SB"s hand) ?

[Swinebag]

Good question

I would call all dominating hands so yes would call A6 but not A7-AQ

[dwh103]

Just curious, but ignoring potential ranges, let"s say the SB shoves and shows his cards.

What"s the best hand he could show that would make you call in this situation ?

Are you calling A4os here as you have the hand dominated, but wouldn"t want to go up against any two live cards ?

Also, what"s the minimum hand in the BB that you would be calling with (assuming you don"t know SB"s hand) ?

All you can really do is assign a bunch of likelihoods of you winning a seat given the different outcomes.

Probably something like: currently you"re 80% for a seat, if you win that goes to 95%, if you lose it drops to 35% (entirely arbitary). That works out at needing to be a 3/1 favourite pre to break even and begin to justify it.

So if he jams ATC JJ+, if he shows you K6o then KK+. In any normal scenario AA is the only sure-fire call.

A bunch of made up figures, but my gut feeling is you"d need over 3:1 at least - depends how you calculate your chances.