whats your move?

[treydj]

hey all, thanks for all the feedback.

there was a line of thought before i made the play.

i had been hammering this guy for a while, and thought at some stage he would get fed up and play back at me.
i felt that if he had a premium he would make a scary 4 bet, so by him just pushing i felt that a large portion of the time my aj is ahead of his pushing range.

main problem was that i considered myself to have an edge on the players and my calling the bet would mean me surrendering this and leaving it down to the cards falling.

In the end I called - i had played the previous hands with him to set up this exact move - aj was more than good enough - it was my chance to win the tournament outright.

(93980939), Table 250 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:25:39 ET - 2009/06/08
Seat 1: leebo438 (41,137)
Seat 2: GaIa86 (52,016)
Seat 3: SpeckVIP (14,000)
Seat 4: totalpants (28,446)
Seat 5: kinderchiu (42,604)
Seat 6: VANO777 (16,786)
leebo438 antes 125
GaIa86 antes 125
SpeckVIP antes 125
totalpants antes 125
kinderchiu antes 125
VANO777 antes 125
kinderchiu posts the small blind of 500
VANO777 posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to totalpants [ ]
leebo438 folds
GaIa86 folds
SpeckVIP folds
totalpants raises to 2,557
kinderchiu folds
VANO777 raises to 16,661, and is all in
totalpants calls 14,104
VANO777 shows [ Th]
totalpants shows [ ]
*** FLOP *** [ ]
*** TURN *** [ ] []
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
VANO777 shows two pair, Nines and Threes
totalpants shows a pair of Threes
VANO777 wins the pot (34,572) with two pair, Nines and Threes
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 34,572 | Rake 0
Board: [ ]
Seat 1: leebo438 folded before the Flop
Seat 2: GaIa86 folded before the Flop
Seat 3: SpeckVIP folded before the Flop
Seat 4: totalpants (button) showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 5: kinderchiu (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: VANO777 (big blind) showed [ Th] and won (34,572) with two pair, Nines and Threes


pffffffff lol

[AMRN]

ignoring the results just posted for a minute, and considering the previous questions on ranges.... it got me thinking about what I would do if I was the big blind against an apparent serial raiser on the button..... and my range would be a lot wider than AJo.

At a minimum it would be any pair and any ace, plus KQ/KJ. If you run that through Pokerstove, AJo has 56% equity - therefore if we have read the range correctly, it"s a correct call. Given that you would have 12xBB left if you called and lost, it comes into the realm of "auto call".

My initial thought was that I would fold - but looking at stats against range, folding here would be weak.

Call. Crap outcome though, but correct play.

[deanp27]

don"t worry about edge, your edge at later stages of touraments comes from having situations like this and making the correct call by looking at position and assigning ranges, you rarely get to play more than one or 2 streets post flop so you don"t get chance to "outplay" anyone.

good call, just ride the variance train that is tourament poker

[mal666]

you just cant pass +ev spots like this

[Eck]

oh you lost, then its a pass then obv  

Also can someone explain what this "edge" is that we keep saying we have?

[WASP]

oh you lost, then its a pass then obv  

Also can someone explain what this "edge" is that we keep saying we have?

Eck you haven"t got an edge, its built into you its your character, its means you are a little bit weerr and little bit warrr.  In depth studies of the edge have proved that cockney geezers have the biggest edge, please see attached video explanation  

[youtube=425,350][/youtube]

[Eck]

oh you lost, then its a pass then obv  

Also can someone explain what this "edge" is that we keep saying we have?

Eck you haven"t got an edge, its built into you its your character, its means you are a little bit weerr and little bit warrr.  In depth studies of the edge have proved that cockney geezers have the biggest edge, please see attached video explanation  

[youtube=425,350][/youtube]

TYTY now i know what i need to work on it will all be easier.

So how does it go? "I"m a little bit waaay, a little bit weee"?? **** looks like i"m screwed... :"(

[Honeybadg]

can those who are insta-folding please assign some ranges to villain?

Any two cards ...

People do this with massive hands in order to induce the call from marginal aces.

People shove with nothing.

... but it depends on the money at stake, the structure, what I think of the players.

Long run - I don"t think calling with AJ is a big winner.

L

[Roscopiko]

can those who are insta-folding please assign some ranges to villain?

If we are running the table and winning with a standard pot bet a high % of the time then imo there is no need to give away your strong position (ie having enough chips to bully the table) with a marginal hand like AJ in this spot.

Its true that as you continue to bully the table that the range of restealing hands does become wider but against a very tight player I would prefer to fold this spot where you will be either in really bad shape or flipping to maintain my chipstack.  The flod also gives you some additional advantages in that it signals to the table that you will fold to a massive overbet, this means when people play back at you they are more likely to make overraises which makes the times you have a monster far more profitable.

I would expect a large percentage of the time this would be AJ+ or any pair and if you are picking up chips easily why flip here.

[Honeybadg]

hey all, thanks for all the feedback.

there was a line of thought before i made the play.

i had been hammering this guy for a while, and thought at some stage he would get fed up and play back at me.
i felt that if he had a premium he would make a scary 4 bet, so by him just pushing i felt that a large portion of the time my aj is ahead of his pushing range.

main problem was that i considered myself to have an edge on the players and my calling the bet would mean me surrendering this and leaving it down to the cards falling.

In the end I called - i had played the previous hands with him to set up this exact move - aj was more than good enough - it was my chance to win the tournament outright.

(93980939), Table 250 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:25:39 ET - 2009/06/08
Seat 1: leebo438 (41,137)
Seat 2: GaIa86 (52,016)
Seat 3: SpeckVIP (14,000)
Seat 4: totalpants (28,446)
Seat 5: kinderchiu (42,604)
Seat 6: VANO777 (16,786)
leebo438 antes 125
GaIa86 antes 125
SpeckVIP antes 125
totalpants antes 125
kinderchiu antes 125
VANO777 antes 125
kinderchiu posts the small blind of 500
VANO777 posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to totalpants [ ]
leebo438 folds
GaIa86 folds
SpeckVIP folds
totalpants raises to 2,557
kinderchiu folds
VANO777 raises to 16,661, and is all in
totalpants calls 14,104
VANO777 shows [ Th]
totalpants shows [ ]
*** FLOP *** [ ]
*** TURN *** [ ] []
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
VANO777 shows two pair, Nines and Threes
totalpants shows a pair of Threes
VANO777 wins the pot (34,572) with two pair, Nines and Threes
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 34,572 | Rake 0
Board: [ ]
Seat 1: leebo438 folded before the Flop
Seat 2: GaIa86 folded before the Flop
Seat 3: SpeckVIP folded before the Flop
Seat 4: totalpants (button) showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 5: kinderchiu (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: VANO777 (big blind) showed [ Th] and won (34,572) with two pair, Nines and Threes


pffffffff lol

What happened in the rest of the tournament?

L

[Marty719]

can those who are insta-folding please assign some ranges to villain?

If we are running the table and winning with a standard pot bet a high % of the time then imo there is no need to give away your strong position (ie having enough chips to bully the table) with a marginal hand like AJ in this spot.

Its true that as you continue to bully the table that the range of restealing hands does become wider but against a very tight player I would prefer to fold this spot where you will be either in really bad shape or flipping to maintain my chipstack.  The flod also gives you some additional advantages in that it signals to the table that you will fold to a massive overbet, this means when people play back at you they are more likely to make overraises which makes the times you have a monster far more profitable.

I would expect a large percentage of the time this would be AJ+ or any pair and if you are picking up chips easily why flip here.

The problem with this is - w/ these blinds, we are likely to not pick up a moster hand and have to continue to open lighter and ppl will feel they can come over the top of us more often.  If gng for the win, AJ=call.

[George2Loose]

standard snap call

[tonyj444]

Given that villains range should be reasonably wide I think a call is the correct play here primarily because of the history.

I would be interested in how low we think we can drop our calling requirements here though.  To the people saying this is a snap-call - what do you do in this spot with AT/A9/KQ?  How about a middling pair 66-99?  Do you call as low as 22?